First things first.
Duke has to beat Houston in Saturday’s second national semifinal before it can start thinking about who it might meet in Monday’s championship game. Let alone start cutting down nets at San Antonio’s AlamoDome.
Like the Blue Devils, the Cougars are a No. 1 regional seed. They’ve won 17 straight and boast the top-ranked defense in college basketball.
Kelvin Sampson’s team is long, physical and experienced.
Houston is no joke..
But as Alabama can attest, Duke can play a little defense, too. And Jon Scheyer has a lot more offensive firepower at his disposal, including the best, most well-rounded college player in the country.
So assuming the Blue Devils do what the Blue Devils do and advance another step closer to their first championship in the post-Coach K era, let’s take a sneak peek ahead at which of the 2 SEC teams in San Antonio could give them the most trouble.
Auburn, the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed, takes on SEC Tournament champion Florida in a battle of conference rivals in Saturday’s first semifinal,
The Case For Auburn
The Tigers’ chances – against the Gators, not just Duke – are contingent on the health and availability of SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome.
The 6-10 double-double machine suffered injuries to his elbow and leg while defending around the rim during the second half of Sunday’s East Region championship game victory against Michigan State.
Although X-rays were negative and he returned to the game briefly, it was clear that he was in pain and limited in the use of his arm. He was held out of practice on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will almost certainly play. But questions remain about how effective he will be.
Broome scored 20 points and pulled down 12 rebounds before fouling out in Auburn’s 84-78 loss to Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Dec. 4.
If he’s anywhere close to full strength, Broome could cause trouble for the Blue Devils with his offensive rebounding and physicality that could potentially get both Khaman Maluach and his backup Patrick Ngongba into foul trouble. If he’s not able to provide his customary 18 points, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks, the pressure will be on fellow big Dylan Cardwell and 6-7 reserve Chaney Johnson to pick up the slack inside.
It would also help for perimeter players Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly and Tahaad Pettiford to have a hot shooting performance. Then again, those 3 combined to go 10-of-15 from 3-point range in their first meeting with the Blue Devils.
And it still wasn’t good enough.
On the other end of the court, the Tigers won’t just have to deal with stopping Cooper Flagg, who matched Broome’s output with 22 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals back in December. And while it’s unlikely that Isaiah Evans will come off the bench draining 6 treys the way he did in December, it’s even more improbable that the duo of Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach will be held to a combined 8 points while attempting only 4 shots between them.
The Case For Florida
The Gators would present a much more challenging matchup for the Blue Devils, regardless of Broome’s health.
Todd Golden’s team is one of the few in college basketball that can match Duke’s size and length. They start a pair of players 6-10 or taller in Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu, and come off the bench with 2 others just as tall, including versatile effort guy Thomas Haugh.
They’re also big enough in the backcourt to be less bothered by Duke’s switching defense than Alabama’s 6-1 star Mark Sears was in the Elite Eight last Saturday. The way Florida star Walter Clayton Jr. has been playing all season – but especially in this tournament – it might not matter who is assigned to guard him.
The All-American guard doesn’t just present problems for the Blue Devils because of his shotmaking ability, though he is shooting 54% from 3-point range and averaging 22.3 points in his team’s 4 NCAA victories. He’s doubly dangerous because of competitive nature that always seems to manifest itself just when his team needs it most.
Without Clayton’s heroics, Florida would never have gotten out of the second round against UConn in Raleigh. The Gators trailed the entire second half until their star sparked a late 8-0 run that finally pulled them through to a 2-point victory. Then Saturday in the Elite Eight against Texas Tech, his fadeaway 3-pointer with 59 seconds remaining capped a comeback that erased a 10-point deficit in the final 5.5 minutes.
While there’s something to be said for surviving and advancing this time of year, it’s also a risky strategy to count on miracle comebacks game-in and game-out, especially against a team the caliber of Auburn. Or Duke, which has the defensive prowess to slow the usually fast-paced Gators down to a snail’s pace, force turnovers on the perimeter and score off the offensive glass – attributes that helped both UConn and Texas Tech put Florida on the ropes.
Even if the game does turn into a track meet, the Blue Devils have plenty of sprinters to put up a big offensive number of their own.
The Bottom Line
Given their choice, the Blue Devils would probably prefer to see Auburn again. Even though both teams are much different now than they were the first time they met 4 months ago, Duke has shown it can match up well against the Tigers. And there’s a possibility that their best player won’t be 100% healthy.
Florida is longer, more potent offensively and playing better with 12 wins in its last 13 games, including an SEC Tournament title. And it possesses a clutch wild card in Clayton.
But the bottom line here is that if the Blue Devils bring their “A” game with them to San Antonio, it doesn’t really matter who they play. It’s the reason DraftKings Sportsbook has set Duke as a favorite against both SEC teams – -5.5 points on Auburn and -4.5 points against Florida.
That is, assuming Houston doesn’t crash the party and send the Blue Devils home early.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
