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Auburn vs. Florida: Odds, picks, preview for the all-SEC Final Four matchup
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Sure, this is the first Final Four in nearly 2 decades where every No. 1 seed made it to the national semifinal. But, somehow, this is the first Final Four in 10 years where more than 2 No. 1 seeds made it. That seems more interesting. At least to this scribe.
Typically, we see 1 or 2 great-but-flawed teams get upset somewhere along the line. This season, not only did we not have any upsets, but we didn’t really have any of those “great but flawed” teams. We just have great teams.
We have a somewhat unprecedented show of strength in San Antonio this season. Four of the 10 best teams in KenPom’s history, which dates to the 1996-97 season, will hit the court inside the Alamodome. Duke is the second-best team in KenPom’s history, by net rating. Houston is the sixth-best. Florida is the eighth-best. Auburn is the 10th-best.
The level of basketball should be amazing.
Below, you’ll find part 1 of our betting preview for the 2025 Final Four.
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 1 Florida betting odds
- Spread: Florida -2.5
- Total: 161.5
- Money line: Florida -150, Auburn +125
Odds via BetMGM
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How to bet the Auburn-Florida spread
Prior to the start of the NCAA Tournament, Florida ranked among the nation’s best in something Evan Miyakawa refers to as “The Kill Shot” — when a team goes on a 10-0 scoring run (or better) in a game. The Gators were equally proficient at pulling these runs off and preventing such runs from happening to them.
The logic is straightforward: Florida can, at any moment, explode and sprint away from its opponent.
According to Miyakawa, a team with at least one 10-0 run wins 71% of the time and a team with more “kill shots” than its opponent wins 81% of the time. Florida entered the NCAA Tournament with 31 such runs this season and only allowed 10, per Miyakawa.
The Gators had an 11-0 run in the win over Maryland in the Sweet 16. They had a 10-0 run early against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight.
Florida is combustible, and it has been devastating to opponents all season. More concerning for opponents? It can come from anywhere. The Gators have had runs throughout the SEC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament that, while don’t quite qualify as “kill shots,” have the same effect. The Gators scored 53 points in less than 17 minutes against Norfolk State in the opening round. They trailed UConn by 3 with 4 minutes to play in the second round and within 3 minutes they had a 6-point lead. A second-half 3 from Derik Queen got Maryland within 7 points and less than 4 minutes later the Gators were back up 18.
Walter Clayton Jr. plays a massive role in this. Next to Cooper Flagg, Clayton is the most combustible player still standing in the NCAA Tournament. After consecutive 20-point games to open the tourney, Clayton shot poorly against Maryland and it meant absolutely nothing. He bounced back against Texas Tech with a 30-piece. Clayton can score in all manner of ways from all over the floor.
But the Gators’ second-ranked offense (per KenPom) is such because of the overall brilliance of its lineup. According to EvanMiya’s lineup data, the 5-man lineup of Clayton, Will Richard, Alijah Martin, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh is the third-best lineup in college basketball by net efficiency.
Everyone can shoot from the perimeter. All the guards can get themselves going. And they get after it defensively.
How does Florida’s explosiveness compete with Auburn’s impenetrability?
The Tigers have an outstanding offense that can rival Florida’s in terms of efficiency. The defense is the one to pay attention to in this matchup. Auburn’s switching style forces teams to scramble. It blocks shots at a top-5 rate nationally, doesn’t give up 3s, and holds opponents to a bottom-10 shooting clip on the few 3s they do get up.
When the Tigers lost 3 of their final 4 games heading into the NCAA tourney, the defense fell apart. Auburn gave up 1.383 points per possession to Texas A&M — an awful shooting team — then gave up 1.228 points per possession to Tennessee. The Aggies, Crimson Tide, and Volunteers combined to grab 40 offensive rebounds in 3 games.
The defense has recovered. Michigan averaged 0.890 points per possession. Michigan State was at 0.970. MSU had 3 dunks, but it also went 5-for-16 on every other attempt at the rim. Michigan went 8-for-17 at the rim. Creighton is the only team so far that has been at or above a point per possession against Auburn in the tourney, and the Jays got outscored 42-24 in the paint. And Auburn has given up only 28 offensive boards in 4 combined tourney games.
According to Miyakawa, the Tigers only gave up 8 “kill shot” runs before the start of the tournament. Michigan never had a scoring run longer than 6 unanswered points (and Auburn had a 12-0 run of its own). Michigan State’s longest scoring spurt was 7 unanswered, and that was a necessary response to a 17-0 Auburn run to take control of the first half.
In the regular-season meeting between these 2 teams, Clayton shot 6-for-11 from the field and scored 19 points. Condon had 17, 10, and 4 on 7-for-10 shooting. Florida played without Martin, never pulled off a 10-0 or better run, and led by as many as 21 points in the second half.
One other thing to consider here: Florida has been outstanding against the spread this season (27-11 ATS overall) but has opened the NCAA Tournament 1-3 ATS. Arizona in 1997 has been the only team since 1985 to win a national championship after an 0-2 ATS start to the tourney. The 2015 Kentucky team is also the only other team this century to make the Final Four after going 1-3 ATS or worse, and those Wildcats lost to Wisconsin in a historic upset. (H/T to Evan Abrams on the historical data.)
Auburn was viewed as the best team in the country for a large chunk of the regular season. It wasn’t until the Gators roared into and through the SEC Tournament that they overtook Auburn as the public’s team to beat out of the SEC. Which do you trust more?
The Tigers have 3-point shooters capable of getting hot — Miles Kelly knocked down 7 3s in the first-round win — and it has a legitimate candidate for the Wooden Award in Johni Broome, who may have just played the game of his life in the Elite Eight.
These 2 sides are remarkably similar in terms of their statistical profiles, and given everything we’ve seen from them throughout the tournament, this feels like it’ll be a nail-biter. Auburn’s ability to take away the 3 has me interested in an alternate spread available at BetMGM.
Bet Auburn +3.5 (-125 via BetMGM)
How to bet the Auburn-Florida point total
While the opening total for one of our Elite Eight games was historically low for this deep into the tourney, the opening total for the all-SEC national semifinal is quite historic going the other way.
At most shops, the total sits at 161.5. If that holds, it’ll be the highest projected point total for a Final Four or national title game since 2002. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have only been 15 games in or beyond the Final Four with a total of 160 or more. The under cashed in 10 of those games.
Neither of these teams go too deep into their bench, though both are getting a week’s rest to recover, so tired legs shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Both sit outside the top 50 nationally for tempo, per KenPom, meaning we aren’t likely to see an insanely high-possession game. And both teams have a high rate of 2-foul participation, per KenPom, which means there won’t be a ton of opportunities to pick on bench players regardless of foul trouble.
The first meeting had 171 combined points. Auburn has only given up more than 80 points in a game 3 times since — twice to Alabama and to Texas A&M. Here’s where I give a subtle reminder that A&M had 22 offensive rebounds in that game.
In the tournament, Auburn has given up 63, 70, 65, and 64 points.
Considering both of these teams take the 3-ball away from their opponents and both protect the basketball well, I don’t envision another 90-81 game. Auburn is seventh nationally in turnover rate. Florida is 59th. Auburn’s 29.6% clip on defense is the eighth-best 3-point shot defense in basketball. Florida has the sixth-best. Both defenses force the opposition to rely on 2s, and neither team is such an elite 3-point shooting team (Auburn is 63rd, Florida is 71st) that we can assume tough shots will get made hand over fist from beyond the arc.
KenPom has this game ending with 161 points. Bart Torvik projects 159. EvanMiya projects 159 as well.
I’m leaning toward the under here, but if the number keeps inching up closer to 162.5 or even 163, I’d be more likely to jump on that.
Lean under 161.5 (-110 via bet365)
Who to target in the Auburn-Florida player prop market
Bigs have had big games against the Gators this postseason. In back-to-back rounds, I wondered if Florida’s frontcourt depth could stymie Maryland’s Derik Queen or Texas Tech’s forward duo of JT Toppin and Darrion Williams.
Queen had 27 points and took 10 free throws. Williams scored 23 points on 9-of-18 shooting and Toppin had a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double. Toppin also grabbed 6 offensive boards despite giving up a decent amount of size to the Gator bigs.
Even in the opening weekend, UConn’s 3 forwards — Liam McNeely, Alex Karaban, and Samson Johnson — gave the Gators issues. McNeely had 22 and knocked down 8 free throws. Karaban had 14. Johnson scored 10 points with 10 boards. UConn’s starting 4 and 5 combined for 6 offensive boards.
Johni Broome’s 17.5-point total at bet365 is criminally low. Even against a team that might shut down opposing frontcourt options, don’t think for an instant Auburn would turn away from its All-American pivot. Broome leads the Tigers in per-40 shot attempts, with a gap between him and second place of 3 field goals. And not only does he have the highest usage rate on his team (30.5%), but he has the fourth-highest usage of any SEC player this season.
Broome briefly left the MSU game but returned just a few minutes later. With a week to heal up, don’t be concerned about lingering effects. We saw a clearly-hobbled Broome earlier this season put up a 16-point, 14-rebound effort against Tennessee.
Over his last 7 games, Broome is averaging 21.3 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. He has double-digit boards in each game so far during the NCAA Tournament, and has taken 34 combined shot attempts in his last 2 games.
As Auburn seeks its first national championship, Broome is going to play a central role in whatever the Tigers do. Considering the recent success of other high-usage bigs going against the Gator frontcourt, there are a number of ways we can play that in the market.
DraftKings has +105 odds on Broome to clear 30 points+rebounds. The Gators are an elite offensive rebounding team and only an average defensive rebounding outfit. Broome could have some second-chance opportunities that help toward a prop he has hit in 5 of his last 7.
Is it unimaginative to back a star player to score points? Sure, but when the total for said star is sitting in the teens in a game where the winner gets to play for a national championship, take advantage of the gift.
Bet Johni Broome over 17.5 points (-125 via bet365)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
