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College basketball futures market update: Best value bets for Champ Week

Published: Mar 15, 2024 · 5:50 PM EDT

Champ Week in college basketball is winding to a close, so it’s a good time to examine the conference tournament futures market.

Several big upsets have already happened this week, including NC State’s win over Duke and Mississippi State’s victory over Tennessee. That leaves the door open for some potential surprises to cut down the nets this weekend and earn an automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament.

A couple of important notes before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from various sportsbooks. 2) The SEC, Big Ten, Big East and several other conference tournaments have already tipped off on Friday as of publication, which is why you won’t see betting odds for those leagues below.

Here are the 4 best-value bets for conference tournaments entering the weekend:

Pittsburgh to win the ACC Tournament (+600 on FanDuel)

Implied odds: 14.29%
BartTorvik odds: 17.20%
Expected value: $20.40 on a $100 wager

Pittsburgh will face North Carolina on Friday night in what appears to be a must-win game for the Panthers. Pitt is currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but would be in very good shape to make the NCAA Tournament if it can upset the Tar Heels. Per BartTorvik’s projections, the Panthers are the clear best value on the board for conference tournaments as of late Friday afternoon. If Pitt is able to pull off the upset against UNC on Friday night, there’s a good chance it will be favored in the ACC title game on Saturday.

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Houston to win the Big 12 Tournament (-140 on ESPN Bet)

Implied odds: 58.33%
BartTorvik odds: 62.9%
Expected value: $7.83 on a $100 wager

It’s not often that you see value on an odds-on favorite, but that’s the case with Houston. BartTorvik has repeatedly shown value on the Cougars in various futures markets over the last weeks, and the books still haven’t completely caught up. Houston has lost once since mid-January and should be considered a significant favorite to win the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City this week.

Duquesne to win the Atlantic-10 Tournament (+300 on FanDuel)

Implied odds: 25%
BartTorvik odds: 26.7%
Expected value: $6.80 on a $100 wager

Duquesne pulled off a big upset by defeating Dayton in the A-10 quarterfinals on Thursday. Its reward is a meeting with St. Bonaventure in the semis on Saturday afternoon. If Duquesne wins, it would then play either VCU or St. Joseph’s on Sunday in the title game for an NCAA Tournament berth. None of the remaining A-10 teams would make it into the field as an at-large team, so it’s a relatively wide-open field. Duquesne was a combined 4-1 against the other 3 remaining A-10 teams during the regular season.

New Mexico to win the Mountain West Tournament (+250 on FanDuel)

Implied odds: 28.57%
BartTorvik odds: 30.5%
Expected value: $6.75 on a $100 wager

New Mexico is into the semis of the Mountain West Tournament. This is a very good league that could produce as many as 6 NCAA Tournament berths this year. The Lobos are currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but have as good a shot as anyone to earn the auto-bid. Per BartTorvik, only San Diego State (32.4%) has a higher chance of winning this tournament. However, the Aztecs are +150 — which is why the value is on the Lobos at +250 in this situation.

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Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.