College basketball predictions: Best bets to make the Final Four

January is drawing to a close, which means it’s a good time to take a look at some college basketball futures.

This piece will dive into Final Four predictions and best bets for 3 programs with national title aspirations. As always, the goal will be to identify value in the betting markets. Numerous sports betting apps as well as prediction markets such as Kalshi currently have Final Four odds posted for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Final Four predictions

After surveying the betting market, here are 3 picks to make the Final Four this spring:

Tennessee

I think the market is discounting Tennessee’s Final Four upside. The Vols have never made the Final Four, but could be legit contenders this season if things break their way. They have a high-end scoring guard in Ja’Kobi Gillespie and a freshman wing in Nate Ament who appears to be coming into his own. As of this writing, Ament has scored 17+ points in 4-consecutive games and is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists in SEC play. Tennessee’s win profile includes high-end victories over Alabama (on the road), Louisville and Houston. BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model gives the Vols a 9% chance to make the Final Four, which is far above current betting market expectations. 

Pick: Tennessee to make the Final Four (+2200 on BetMGM)

Michigan State

Almost all of Tom Izzo’s contemporaries have retired or left college basketball, but he’s still putting elite teams on the floor in East Lansing. Izzo has one the sport’s best overall teams this year, as the Spartans rank No. 4 in KenPom as of publication. Michigan State’s only losses are to Nebraska and Duke by a grand total of 8 points. Since losing to the Huskers, Michigan State has rattled off 6 straight wins — all by double digits. Michigan State also has the No. 1 defensive efficiency in the nation, which is something that should translate well in March. I also trust Jeremy Fears to create shots — for himself or teammates — in crunch time of close games. 

Pick: Michigan State to make the Final Four: 15 cents per contract on Kalshi 

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Duke

I don’t know if Cam Boozer will be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft or not, but the degree to which he is dominating college basketball has gone under the radar this season. That should be impossible for a Duke player who is the son of a former NBA All-Star, but it’s the truth. Boozer is having a season that has very little historical precedent. Here are his averages: 23.7 points per game, 9.9 rebounds per game, 4.1 assists per game, 37.7% from 3-point range and 7.4 free-throw attempts per game. If those numbers hold, Boozer would be the first player in college basketball history to hit all of those benchmarks. In addition to being 18-1 on the season, Duke is top-5 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils appear to be a shoe-in for a No. 1 seed and are likely to be a significant favorite in any game they would play in their region. 

Pick: Duke to make the Final Four (+240 on BetMGM)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.