Florida Gators vs. Duke Blue Devils: Best bet for Tuesday’s ACC/SEC Challenge matchup
By Adam Spencer
Published:
A marquee nonconference showdown awaits as the Florida Gators venture into the lion’s den at Cameron Indoor Stadium to battle the undefeated Duke Blue Devils.
The Gators bring a solid 5-2 record into this Tuesday night clash. Meanwhile, Duke enters riding high with a perfect 8-0 start that has it perched atop the ACC, averaging a blistering 91.9 points per game behind freshman sensation Cameron Boozer’s 22.9 points and 9.8 rebounds per contest.
This marks Florida’s first trip to Cameron Indoor in 27 years, adding historical significance to an already compelling ACC/SEC Challenge matchup. The Gators will counter Duke’s interior dominance with their own glass-cleaning specialist in center Rueben Chinyelu, who’s hauling down 10.9 rebounds per game for the defending national champions.
Action tips off Tuesday, December 2, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, setting the stage for what could be one of December’s defining nonconference battles.
Florida vs. Duke Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, current as of December 2, 2025:
The betting markets clearly respect Duke’s unblemished record and Cameron Indoor mystique, installing the Blue Devils as heavy favorites at -455 on the money line. That spread of 9.5 points reflects the significant gap between these programs, while the total of 155.5 acknowledges Duke’s offensive firepower.
Breaking down the implied probabilities after removing the bookmaker’s juice, Duke carries approximately 78% win expectancy compared to Florida’s 22% chance.
Statistical Breakdown: Florida vs. Duke
The tale of the tape reveals a fascinating contrast in team strengths, with Duke’s elite shooting facing off against Florida’s superior glass work:
Duke’s dominance shows up immediately in the efficiency metrics. That staggering +33.1 point differential stems from an offense shooting 52% from the field and 37% from deep, combined with a defense allowing just 58.8 points per game. The Blue Devils also protect the basketball exceptionally well, dishing out 20.3 assists against only 10.3 turnovers per contest.
Florida’s path to competitiveness runs through the glass, where it holds a 45.9 to 40.3 rebounding advantage. Led by Chinyelu’s work on the boards, the Gators must capitalize on second-chance opportunities while limiting Duke’s extra possessions. However, Florida’s shooting woes present a challenge for Tuesday night. That 27.7% 3-point percentage and 44% field-goal accuracy could prove fatal against Duke’s lockdown defense.
Best Bet: Back the champs to keep it close
The Pick: Florida +9.5 (-118 on BetMGM)
Laying nearly double digits always carries risk. While Duke has beaten some good teams this year, it hasn’t played anyone as good as the reigning national champions.
Florida needs to take care of the ball if it is going to at least cover the spread. The Blue Devils commit just 10.3 turnovers per game compared to Florida’s sloppy 14.1, meaning fewer extra possessions for the Gators to exploit.
I do think the Gators have the ability to defend Duke on the perimeter to neutralize the 3-point advantage the Blue Devils have. Duke will likely win this game outright, but look for Florida to at least keep it close.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
