How far will Florida advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
By Andrew Olson
Published:
The Florida Gators have a target on their back as defending national champions, but this year, they aren’t considered the favorites to win it all.
Unlike last year’s 4-loss team that made it through the SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament unscathed, the Gators are 26-7 enterting the Big Dance. Florida had some early defeats in nonconference play, slipped up twice in its regular-season run to the SEC title and then lost to Vanderbilt in the conference tournament semifinals. And, what do you know, those pesky Commodores just happen to be in Florida’s NCAA Tournament region as a potential road block to repeating.
Think the Gators repeat as national champions? Here’s a look at the latest odds on Kalshi:
When Florida lost to NCAA Tournament 10-seed Mizzou on Jan. 3, it responded by winning its next 5 games. After it lost at home to an Auburn squad that just missed the Big Dance, UF went on a 12-game winning streak.
So how well will Todd Golden‘s team bounce back this time? Let’s make some predictions.
Here’s how far Saturday Down South predicts Florida will advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Round 1: No. 16 Lehigh (in Tampa)
RECORD: 18-16 (11-7 PATRIOT); KENPOM: 284; NET RANK: 275
BEST WIN: vs. Texas State; WORST LOSS: at West Virginia
ESPN Analytics is giving Lehigh, the No. 67 overall seed, a 53.6% probability to beat Prairie View A&M, the No. 68 overall seed, in the First Four play-in game for the No. 16 seed in the South, so let’s go with the favorite and the computers here for Florida’s first game. Frankly, it really shouldn’t matter which team a rested UF squad faces in front of a Tampa crowd. Sure, the Gators can be “off” at times, but neither potential opponent is going to be ready for Florida’s backcourt, not to mention a team determined to get the taste of losing out of its mouth.
PREDICTION: Florida 93, Lehigh 69
Round 2: No. 9 Iowa (in Tampa)
RECORD: 21-12 (10-10 B1G) ; KENPOM:25; NET RANK: 27
BEST WIN: vs. No. 9 Nebraska; WORST LOSS: at Penn State
The 8/9 opening-round matchup is basically a toss-up. Both Iowa and Clemson have some concerning recent stumbles, but the Hawkeyes play strong defense and keep most games close, which should carry them to the Round of 32.
Iowa’s résumé, though, isn’t all that impressive. The Hawkeyes knocked off a top-10 Nebraska team in a 57-52 game at home. They kept things close with Michigan at home (71-68) and on the road early in the year against in-state rival Iowa State (66-62). When looking at upset potential, though, there aren’t many big wins.
Florida shouldn’t take Iowa lightly, but it’s hard to see the Gators stumbling in Tampa against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team. The Hawkeyes haven’t shown the scoring firepower to upset a defense like UF.
PREDICTION: Florida 79, Iowa 68
Round 3: No. 5 Vanderbilt (in Houston)
RECORD: 26-8 (11-7 SEC); KENPOM: 12; NET RANK: 13
BEST WIN: vs. No. 4 Florida; WORST LOSS: vs. Oklahoma
This gets tricky. Vanderbilt seems to have Florida figured out better than others. The Gators give up 72 points per game, and Vanderbilt is actually pulling the average up with 94 points in a home loss and 91 points in the recent SEC Tournament victory.
Those games, though, were both in Nashville, first at Vanderbilt’s home Memorial Gym and then just down the road at Bridgestone Arena. Give Florida a full week of rest and prep in a true neutral site, and the Commodores aren’t as likely to establish an early lead that puts pressure on the Gators.
On top of the matchup giving Florida fits, Vanderbilt is under-seeded. How the KenPom No. 12 and NET No. 13 landed at No. 5 after an impressive SEC Tournament run is a real head-scratcher.
Even if Vandy should be a 3- or 4-seed, the Gators still have the more impressive overall body of work. Florida played about as poorly as possible last time out in the SEC Tournament against the Dores. Trust Golden to have the Gators playing better in the NCAA Tournament, but expect Vandy to make it a tight, high-scoring game.
PREDICTION: Florida 85, Vanderbilt 81
Round 4: No. 2 Houston (in Houston)
RECORD: 28-6 (14-4 Big 12); KENPOM: 5; NET RANK: 5
BEST WIN: vs. No. 14 Kansas (Big 12 Tournament); WORST LOSS: vs. No. 17 Tennessee (Player’s Era)
Florida earned the last No. 1 seed in the field of 68, but it’s fair to say the Gators did not get the most favorable draw. Figure out Round 3 against Vanderbilt, and the potential reward is a rematch of the national championship game in a tough environment.
Last year’s crowd in San Antonio notably favored Houston. This game would officially be neutral, but the Cougars would have an undeniable advantage with the game being played in Houston.
Houston is battle-tested by playing in the loaded Big 12. It wasn’t easy picking the “worst loss” for the Cougars. They fell by just 3 points to then-No. 17 Tennessee at the Players Era Festival in November, and then there’s a 13-point defeat against a top-15 Kansas team at Allen Fieldhouse.
The Cougars have long been about great defense. Houston allows 62.9 points per game this year, and recently held Kansas to just 47 points in the Big 12 Tournament.
Unfortunately for Florida, Walter Clayton Jr. isn’t walking through that door this time. (Will Richard and Alijah Martin aren’t either.)
Florida won its third national championship in Texas. The repeat campaign may not make it out of the Lone Star State.
PREDICTION: Houston 74, Florida 73
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
