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NCAA Tournament bubble analysis: Betting odds, best expected value picks
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The college basketball regular season will wrap up this weekend, which means teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble are running out of opportunities to stake their claim to a spot in the field of 68.
As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings is offering odds on 9 Division 1 teams — who appear to be on the bubble as of March 6 — to either make or miss the Big Dance.
Here’s a chart of the odds for those 9 teams to either make or miss the tournament, via DraftKings. The chart also includes implied odds for both outcomes:
| Team | Odds to make it | Implied odds | Odds to miss it | Implied odds |
| Wake Forest | +105 | 48.78% | -135 | 57.45% |
| Virginia | +150 | 40.00% | -195 | 66.10% |
| Pitt | +120 | 45.45% | -155 | 60.78% |
| Iowa | +180 | 35.71% | -235 | 70.15% |
| Colorado | -185 | 64.91% | +150 | 40.00% |
| Villanova | -350 | 77.78% | +280 | 26.32% |
| New Mexico | -145 | 59.18% | +115 | 46.51% |
| Utah | +150 | 40.00% | -195 | 66.10% |
| Providence | +295 | 25.32% | -390 | 79.59% |
Using BartTorvik’s TourneyCast projections, we can calculate which of those potential bets have the best value. BartTorvik’s model attempts to project the 68-team field based on the strength of each team (and résumé) as well as remaining schedules. It is not, however, reflective of what the field of 68 would look like if the Tournament started today.
Last week in this story, the 3 best-value bets were St. Johns to make the tournament at +145, SMU to make the tournament at +340 and Colorado to make the tournament at +145. St. John’s and Colorado are both favored to make the Big Dance as at-large selections as of now while SMU will still be reliant on winning the AAC Tournament in order to get in the field.
Here are the 3 best-value bets for this week:
Pitt to make the NCAA Tournament (+120)
- KenPom ranking: 42nd
- NET ranking: 44th
- Quad 1 games remaining: 0
Pitt has been surging lately, having won 8 of its last 10 games overall. The Panthers are just 2-5 in Quad 1 games this season, which could be tricky as they enter the final weekend of the regular season. Pitt would likely need to win at least 1 Quad 1 game during the ACC Tournament to get into the field of 68.
BartTorvik’s model gives the Panthers a 67.4% chance to make the field. That’s significantly higher than the implied odds of 45.5% from this DraftKings line. Overall, there’s an expected value of $48.28 (off of a $100 wager) for Pitt to go Dancing. That’s easily the best value on the board this week.
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DraftKings States: AZ, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV, WY
Wake Forest to miss the NCAA Tournament (-135)
- KenPom ranking: 28th
- NET ranking: 41st
- Quad 1 games remaining: 1
Two weeks ago, Wake Forest was one of my top picks to make the tournament at a price of +188. A few days later, the Demon Deacons beat Duke and appeared to be cruising to a NCAA Tournament berth.
Everything that has happened since then has been a disaster for Steve Forbes and Wake Forest. The Deacons have lost 3 in a row to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. All 3 losses were damaging for different reasons, but the most recent defeat was of the Quad 3 variety to Georgia Tech. That may be the death knell for Wake’s NCAA Tournament hopes despite being a top-30 team according to KenPom.
BartTorvik gives Wake just a 27.1% chance to make the tournament, meaning there’s significant value ($26.90 EV off a $100 bet) on the Demon Deacons to miss the NCAA tournament. If you backed Wake to make the the field a couple of weeks ago, you at least have a plus-EV opportunity to hedge out of that bet now.
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Utah to make the NCAA Tournament (+150)
- KenPom ranking: 48th
- NET ranking: 46th
- Quad 1 games remaining: 1
Utah is on the razor’s edge of the bubble with a couple games remaining. The Utes will close out their regular season against Oregon State on Thursday and Oregon on Saturday. A 2-0 finish would include a Quad 1 victory over the Ducks, which would significantly improve their résumé ahead of Selection Sunday.
Winning in Eugene on Oregon’s senior night on 1 day’s rest is a lot to ask for, but the outcome of that game could very well determine whether or not Utah reaches the NCAA Tournament this season. Both KenPom and BartTorvik are projecting a 76-75 win for Oregon in that contest as of Wednesday afternoon.
BartTorvik currently gives the Utes a 49.8% chance to make the Tournament — much closer to a coin flip than the implied odds of 40% that are attached to the +150 price tag being dangled by DraftKings. Even with needing a road win at Oregon to solidify its résumé, there’s value on Utah to make the tournament at this price. The expected value off of a $100 wager currently sits at $24.50.
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DraftKings States: AZ, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV, WY
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
