NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Time for teams to make a strong final argument for the selection committee

Tournament time is here. That means time is running out on teams hoping to end up on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

They have one final opportunity to state their case to the committee this week during their conference championship events.

Not everyone has to run the table, cut down the nets and earn an automatic bid the way NC State did in the ACC last year. For some teams it only means doing enough to maintain their spots inside the bracket. For others, there’s a lot more work to do just to give themselves a chance. 

Even then their postseason fate will have as much to do with potential bid stealers and the whim of committee members as their performance on the court as metrics on a résumé.

So as the clock ticks down the final days to Selection Sunday, here’s a look at where the most prominent bubble teams stand and what they need to do in their respective conference tournaments to make their most convincing final arguments for the committee.

• ACC: North Carolina (20-12, 13-7, 40 NET), SMU (22-9, 13-7, 44 NET), Wake Forest (21-10, 13-7, 68 NET).  The Tar Heels could have strengthened their position considerably by beating Duke last Saturday. But they couldn’t hold onto a 7-point second half lead. And now they’ve got their work cut out for them. The good news for Hubert Davis’s fifth-seeded team is that it could potentially get another shot at the Blue Devils this week in Charlotte. But first things first. The Tar Heels need to avoid an opening-round slip against either Pittsburgh or Notre Dame and then avenge a regular-season loss to fourth-seeded Wake Forest in the quarterfinals to earn the rematch. That’s a game that could have just as much meaning for the Deacons, who are in even deeper bubble trouble because of the 2 Quad 3 blemishes on their resume. Sixth-seeded SMU is in the worst shape of the 3 ACC hopefuls, with no Quad 1 wins to their credit. But because they’re on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke, they have the possibility of getting 2 this week with possible matchups against Clemson and Louisville.
• Big Ten: Indiana (19-12, 10-10, 52 NET), Ohio State (17-14, 9-11, 36 NET). Nebraska has already played its way off the bubble by losing to Iowa in Sunday’s regular-season finale. The loss eliminated the Cornhuskers from the conference tournament. And at just 3 games over .500, with a NET in the high 50s, the best they can hope for now is a first-round home game in the NIT. Even with a much stronger NET of 36, 10th-seeded Ohio State could find itself in a similar situation if it stubs its toe in the opening round against those same Hawkeyes. As for the Big Ten’s other bubble team, ninth-seeded Indiana, the Hoosiers’ late-season surge has them in an advantageous position regardless of what happens in Indy – although an opening-round win against No. 8 Oregon would likely keep the Hoosiers out of Dayton and the First Four.  
• Big 12: Baylor (18-13, 10-10, 31 NET), West Virginia (19-12, 10-10, 46 NET), Cincinnati (17-14, 7-13, 50 NET). The Bears have 5 Quad 1 wins and a solid No. 31 NET. And yet, it would be in their best interest not to lose their tournament opener against either Kansas State or Arizona State on Wednesday. Beyond that, a win against ninth-ranked Texas Tech would be gravy. West Virginia will also need to avoid an early upset against the survivor between TCU and Colorado. Even then, it might take a quarterfinal win against No. 2 Houston to ensure the Mountaineers a spot in the NCAA bracket. Cincinnati, in the meantime, has the steepest mountain to climb. With only 1 Quad 1 win to their credit, the Bearcats will need to win at least twice – against Oklahoma State on Tuesday and Iowa State on Wednesday – just to stay in the bubble conversation.
• Big East: Xavier (21-10, 13-7, 44 NET), Villanova (18-13, 11-9, 53 NET). The Musketeers come into the postseason on a 7-game winning streak. Their résumé, however, is eerily similar to that of North Carolina. Twenty-one wins overall. Winning conference record. NET ranking in the 40s. But only 1 Quad 1 victory. Since the current system was adopted in 2018-19, only 1 team – Drake in 2022 – has ever gotten in with a single Quad 1 win. That makes Thursday’s Big East quarterfinal against fifth-ranked Marquette an absolute must win. Villanova is in even more dire straits. The Wildcats made things even more difficult on themselves by losing their final regular season game to Georgetown. They’ll probably have to win at least twice and maybe more to hear their name called on Sunday.
• SEC: Georgia (20-11, 8-10, 30 NET), Arkansas (19-12, 8-10, 38 NET), Oklahoma (19-12, 6-12, 47 NET), Texas (17-14, 6-12, 42 NET). The SEC’s bid to surpass the NCAA Tournament record of 11 bids got a big boost in Saturday’s regular-season finales. Georgia all but locked itself into the field with an impressive 79-68 win against Vanderbilt. Arkansas also helped itself immensely with an upset of 25th-ranked Mississippi State, although the Razorbacks can’t afford a second loss in the past 2 weeks to lowly South Carolina when they get the Gamecocks again in the SEC Tournament opener on Wednesday. While Oklahoma also took care of business on Saturday, winning a bubble showdown against rival Texas, it could also use a win on Wednesday against Georgia to take the decision out of the hands of the committee. Texas, on the other hand, is currently on the outside of the bubble looking in. But with 6 Quad 1 wins, a run to the semifinals that would include victories against ranked foes Texas A&M and Tennessee would put the Longhorns right back in the NCAA picture.
• Others: Utah State (25-6, 15-6 Mountain West, 37 NET), San Diego State (21-8, 14-6 Mountain West, 51 NET), Boise State (22-9, 14-6, 45 NET), Colorado State (22-9, 16-4 Mountain West, 54 NET), Dayton (22-9, 12-6 Atlantic-10, 67 NET). This is a tricky category, since any stolen bids would add teams to the list while potentially bumping others off. Even in a best-case scenario, it’s likely that with the SEC and Big Ten taking up so many at-large bids, there will only be room in the bracket for 2 of the Mountain West teams mentioned here. Utah State has the best résumé of the bunch with 2 Quad 1 wins and on bad losses, while San Diego State has history – having made a Final Four run just 2 Tournaments ago. Colorado State has more work to do this week with only 1 Quad 1 win on its résumé while Boise State had 2 Quad 1 wins, but an ugly Quad 4 loss to offset it. Dayton’s best hope, other than the moon and aligning just right, is to win the A-10 Tournament. Or at the very least get to the final and play VCU to the wire. 

Brett Friedlander

Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.