Ad Disclosure
SEC Tournament history tells 2 contrasting stories about Auburn, the regular-season champ.
On one hand, the regular-season and conference tourney titles have been won by the same team 6 times in the last 10 seasons. (The 2019-20 campaign is not being counted for obvious reasons.) Auburn, the second-best team in basketball according to KenPom, will begin its tourney run just 2 wins away from the championship game.
On the other hand, Auburn has gone one-and-done at the SEC Tournament 5 times in 8 previous appearances under coach Bruce Pearl. Two of those untimely exits came after regular-season titles for the Tigers. With March Madness on the horizon, and the Tigers a worthy contender for a national championship, perhaps a lengthy conference tournament run would get in the way of the ultimate goal.
Auburn bullied the rest of the SEC this season, winning 15 of its 18 league games. The Tigers enter the SEC tourney with a plus-35.9 net rating in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics, by far the best by a single SEC team since Kentucky in 2014-15.
But consecutive losses to end the year have cast some doubt on the champs. At least in the eyes of their peers. Every other coach in the league will be preaching to his team that the tourney title is there for the taking.
Everyone is 0-0. Everyone has a chance. Win your way to a trophy. Every year we see players rise to the moment and author some kind of extraordinary run.
And the best conference in basketball is brimming with individual talent capable of sparking such runs.
Here’s 1 player from each SEC team who needs to step up in the SEC Tournament.
16-seed South Carolina — guard Jamarii Thomas
If South Carolina is going to make noise in the SEC Tournament, it cannot simply be the Collin Murray-Boyles show. Murray-Boyles scored at least 22 points in 4 straight games before Tennessee held him to 7 on 3-of-7 shooting in the regular-season finale. Thomas stepped up in that game to score 20 on 15 shots. In his previous 2 games, he made just 3 of his 16 shots for 9 combined points. Last season, Thomas was the MEAC Player of the Year and an all-defense selection in his conference. This year, Thomas’s shooting efficiency is down across the board and his activity level on defense hasn’t been the same. Guard play is the equalizer in tournament play and Thomas needs to be better. On nearly identical usage rates, Murray-Boyles has a PER this season of 27.4 while Thomas is down at 14.7. South Carolina would love to see him find a groove.
15-seed LSU — guard Jordan Sears
It’s not very imaginative to say a team’s second-leading scorer needs to step up for that team to go on a postseason run, but Sears is an obvious choice for this LSU team that just doesn’t win ball games unless it scores. The Tigers are 1-17 this season when they score fewer than 75 points in a game and they are 13-0 when they clear that point threshold. Cam Carter has been a reliable option all year, scoring in double figures in 27 of his 31 appearances. Sears has been cold until very recently. A 21-point game against Texas A&M in the regular-season finale was the guard’s first game with more than 13 points since Jan. 25. From Feb. 12 through March 1 (6 games), Sears averaged 3.5 points per game on 20.5% shooting. Over his first 23 games, Sears reached double-digits 19 times.
14-seed Oklahoma — forward Mohamed Wague
Sam Godwin, a 6-9 forward, started in each of OU’s first 30 games this season. And his presence was important; he’s the only player in OU’s starting 5 who stands above 6-6. The Sooners are an awful rebounding team and do very little to protect the paint. Throughout the regular season, teams that attacked inside typically found success. Still, he was finding a bit of a rhythm late in the year on the offensive end of the floor before spraining his MCL in the win over Mizzou. That injury sidelined him against Texas to end the regular season and will keep him out of the start of the SEC Tournament. With Oklahoma on the bubble and very little behind Godwin in terms of proven front-court depth, the Sooners need someone with some size to step up. Wague started the Texas game and finished with 3 points and 2 rebounds in 13 minutes. He was also called for 4 fouls. In relief of Godwin against Mizzou, Wague scored 12 points on 4-of-4 shooting with 5 boards in 18 minutes. With Godwin unavailable on Wednesday, OU needs Wague to stay on the court and provide some resistance against a Georgia team that ranks top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding rate.
13-seed Texas — guard Tre Johnson
The freshman is UT’s leading scorer at more than 20 a game. He exploded for 39 points against Arkansas several weeks ago. But since that performance, Johnson has been mostly bottled up. He had 12 points on 3-of-7 shooting in the loss to Georgia, then a season-low 7 points on 0-of-14 shooting against OU. Against SEC competition, Texas was 12th in the league in adjusted offensive efficiency and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They didn’t shoot the basketball well (particularly from 2) and they hacked at opponents constantly to give away free points on the other end. Texas will only go as far as Johnson can carry it in this tournament, and he’s more than capable of going on a scoring binge. He has 8 games this season with at least 25 points. And the 39-point performance capped a string a 4 consecutive 20-point outings. He needs to find his shot again.
12-seed Vanderbilt — forward Devin McGlockton
Vanderbilt is… defensively challenged. You know what? That’s putting it too mildly. The Commodores’ defense is awful. It ranks last among SEC teams since league play began in defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and 3-point percentage allowed. They’re also next-to-last in free throw rate. The only good thing the defense does is force turnovers. That needs to continue because if Vandy is going to advance in this tournament it’ll have to score. And that will be much easier if McGlockton finds his touch. He opened the season with 9 double-digit scoring efforts in his first 13 games. Four of those games also featured double-doubles. McGlockton had 22 against Oklahoma on Feb. 1. He had 14 points and 8 rebounds 3 days later. Since, foul trouble has been a massive problem and his scoring has flat disappeared at times. In his last 8 games, McGlockton has averaged 8 points and 4 personal fouls a game. He has at least 4 fouls in each of his last 4 games. McGlockton has per-40 averages this season of 17 points, 12.8 boards, and 1.8 blocks. He needs to stay on the floor.
11-seed Georgia — guard Dakota Leffew
In Georgia’s first 16 games, Leffew scored in double-digits 11 times. The Bulldogs were 14-2 after those first 16 games. The 6-5 wing has reached double digits only 4 times since. Georgia is 3-1 in those games. In the 10 games Leffew has been held to single digits since Jan. 11, Georgia is 3-7. Though he comes off the bench, Leffew is fourth on the team this season in minutes. Georgia gets the bulk of its scoring from Silas Demary Jr. and Asa Newell, but Leffew has been a go-to throughout his college career. Giving the Dawgs a third option would be huge.
10-seed Mississippi State — guard Josh Hubbard
As a freshman, Hubbard was an All-SEC selection and an All-SEC Tournament performer. He scored 17 a game and upped that to 21 per game in the conference tourney. Hubbard has never been an efficient scorer, but he’s a combustible offensive weapon nonetheless. In the win over LSU on March 1, Hubbard scored 30. In the 2 losses prior and the 2 losses that came after, Hubbard shot just 19-for-62 from the floor. The defense is really struggling for the Bulldogs at the moment. Arkansas scored 93 in the regular-season finale. Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma all scored at least 87 points in their wins over Mississippi State. Since the start of conference play, MSU has given up at least 80 points 10 times. They don’t contain the 3-ball and don’t keep teams off the free throw line. Hubbard needs to go on a scoring binge for MSU to keep pace.
9-seed Arkansas — forward Zvonimir Ivisic
Arkansas closed out the regular season remarkably well, but it’s hard to overlook what happened at South Carolina on March 1. Gamecocks big man Collin Murray-Boyles scored 35 points on 12-of-16 shooting. He made 11 free throws and went 12-for-15 on 2s. The Razorbacks had no answer whatsoever. Trevon Brazile had 5 fouls and didn’t make a shot from the field. The 7-2 Ivisic had 4 blocks on the defensive end, but missed 6 of his 8 shots on the other side of the floor. The Razorbacks will need a better collective effort from their frontcourt to slow down Murray-Boyles in the opening round on Wednesday, but they also need Ivisic to mature a bit on the offensive end. He’s a 7-footer who can block shots and shoot 3s. The Kentucky transfer has been too inconsistent. He had 3 games with 20 points this season and 6 games where he has failed to score a single point. He has missed 11 of his last 13 attempts from 3, and he had an 0-for-9 game in the 7-point loss to Auburn. With Adou Thiero still questionable with a knee injury, the Razorbacks could use a spell of efficiency from Ivisic’s jumpshot.
8-seed Ole Miss — guard Jaylen Murray
With Saint Peter’s in 2023, Murray scored 59 points in 3 conference tournament games to be named an All-MAAC Tournament selection. He upped his scoring and his efficiency in his first season with Ole Miss, but he has struggled to find a rhythm this season. Murray averaged just 8.3 points on 36.4% shooting in SEC play during the regular season. He was briefly brought off the bench midway through the year, but re-entered the starting 5 after 5 games. He has shot better than 50% in a game only twice since. Murray is 1 of 6 Rebels averaging double-digits on the season, but with 14 career 20-point games, he’s also a player who is capable of more than just ho-hum production.
7-seed Mizzou — guard Anthony Robinson II
Since beating Alabama, Mizzou has lost 4 of its 5 games. Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma all handed the Tigers ugly defeats. Robinson scored 3 points in the Arkansas game. He scored 2 points in the Oklahoma game while being limited to just 13 minutes because of foul trouble. And he scored just 2 in the loss to Kentucky. As the floor general who is also one of the Tigers’ best defenders, plenty is on Robinson’s plate. But Mizzou needs him to provide more than just 2 points on the scoreboard. The Tigers win with their offense, and they’re better when Robinson is aggressive. Mizzou is 13-2 in games where Robinson takes more than 5 shot attempts from the field.
6-seed Kentucky — guard Lamont Butler
Butler just hasn’t found his footing since an injury forced him out of the lineup for several weeks in February. In the 4 games since his return, he has 35 points on 26 shots, a 5-foul game, and a 5-turnover game. Kentucky is 3-1 since his return to the lineup, with the only loss being to Auburn, but with Jaxson Robinson out of commission and Kerr Kriisa officially done for the year, Butler needs to pick up the slack. He’s a fifth-year guard who has been in plenty of big moments before. Kentucky is going to the SEC tourney with an intent to cut down the nets. It needs more from Butler to do so.
5-seed Texas A&M — guard Zhuric Phelps
When Wade Taylor IV missed 2 weeks with an injury earlier in the season, Phelps turned into Superman. He scored 34 points in a win at Oklahoma, knocking down 6 triples. He followed that up with 24 points against Alabama and 21 points against Kentucky. Phelps has scored more than 15 in a game only twice since. He closed the year with a 6-point, 2-for-8 showing against LSU. Taylor was the driving force behind the Aggies run in the SEC Tournament last season and there’s no reason he can’t try to take over once again in Nashville. Phelps figuring out how to score alongside Taylor makes A&M a serious threat.
4-seed Tennessee — forward Igor Milicic Jr.
Chaz Lanier is going to get his. Zakai Zeigler is going to do what he does. Jordan Gainey has been strong off the bench in recent weeks. I’m looking to see if Milicic can snap out of the extended shooting funk he has been in. Over his last 5 games, Milicic is 12-for-34 from the field. His 13-point game against South Carolina in the regular-season finale snapped a string of 4 consecutive single-digit performances. When Lanier draws extra attention from defenses this week, Milicic is going to find himself open. Tennessee needs him to knock those shots down.
3-seed Alabama — forward Grant Nelson
The nation saw what an aggressive Nelson can do on the final day of the regular season. While Alabama’s guards struggled to get themselves going in the first half against Auburn, Nelson carried the offense with 15 points on 9 shots. He knocked down a pair of triples and made himself a poster. Nelson finished with 23 points — his best output since scoring 25 against Kentucky on Jan. 18. Prior to the Auburn game, Nelson had been held to 10 points or less in 6 of his previous 7 games. An aggressive Nelson, with his ability to pop out for deep jumpers, makes life easier on Mark Sears. Alabama can win the tournament if Nelson comes out looking to score the way he did against Auburn.
2-seed Florida — guard Alijah Martin
Throughout the month of January, Martin was on an absolute bender. He averaged 18 points a game on 47% shooting while drilling 39% of his 3s. The 3s are still falling, but since the beginning of February, Martin is averaging only 10.9 points per game on 39% shooting. Florida is a darling in this SEC Tournament because it has so many ways it can hurt an opponent and so many options on the offensive end of the floor. But when all 3 guards are rolling, the Gators are a nightmare to guard. Walter Clayton Jr. can do his thing whenever. Will Richard scored 30 against Georgia and then 25 against Texas A&M. I’m curious to see if Martin can get hot again.
1-seed Auburn — guard Miles Kelly
So many pieces of Auburn’s rotation are playing at a high level right now, it’s hard to single out 1 player as someone who needs to elevate his game in order to make this Tiger team a contender. These Tigers are the contender. They’re the hunted after bullying the league in the regular season. But Kelly showed what he’s capable of on March 1 against Kentucky and more of that will make it awfully hard to deny Auburn this postseason. The 6-4 guard drilled 9 of his 14 triples against the Wildcats to score a season-high 30 points. Kelly had a couple of 30-point games when he was with Georgia Tech, both of which featured similarly scorching performances from 3. And he opened this season with a 7-for-9 showing from 3 back in November. He is the marksman in Auburn’s rotation, the guy who takes and makes more 3s than anyone. He’s shooting 40.2% on the season, but he’s just 3-for-11 since the Kentucky game. If Kelly can make 3-plus triples a game during the tournament, it’s hard to see anyone stopping Auburn given how Johni Broome and Tahaad Pettiford are playing right now.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
