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What kind of team can knock off Alabama and Auburn in March?
By David Wasson
Published:
March is only a single sleep away, which means college basketball games ratchet up in intensity with each passing day – going from 1 of many steps in the regular-season slate slowly toward the win-or-go-home finality of the NCAA Tournament.
Alabama and Auburn know plenty about the March march they are about to undertake, each having made that magical run to the pinnacle of the sport – the Final Four – within the past 5 years.
Before the Crimson Tide and Tigers get a chance to win those 4 NCAA Tournament games and earn a spot in San Antonio, they each have to both navigate the rest of the SEC regular season as well as the SEC Tournament itself.
Which begs the question: what kind of team can stop Alabama or Auburn in March?
We will start with the Tigers, the consensus No. 1 team in America heading into the sport’s most magical month. At 26-2, not a whole heckuva lot has been able to crack the Tigers’ code so far in 2024-25 – as only then-No. 9 Duke (84-76 on Dec. 4) and then-No. 6 Florida (90-81 on Feb. 8) have wins against them.
By definition, Auburn isn’t unbeatable – though the Tigers are awfully close to it. In the Blue Devils’ case, it meant one of the first monster games for freshman Cooper Flagg. The preseason All-American dropped 22 points and pulled down 11 rebounds that night in Durham, though Duke was also buoyed by Auburn sensation Johni Broome fouling out with 15 seconds to play and the Tigers already having missed 7 straight shots in the final 4:30 of play.
Duke also dinged Auburn with an unforeseen weapon that night, as freshman guard Isaiah Evans made 6-of-8 3-pointers off the bench for 18 points – all in the first half.
Auburn won 14 straight after that and was No. 1 in America when Florida came to Lee County. Much like Duke, Florida overcame an early double-digit deficit to help simmer the raucous Tigers student section down, and canned 13 3-pointers – 6 more than than Auburn could muster.
Walter Clayton Jr. and Alex Condon delivered for Florida that afternoon, overcoming another stellar effort by Broome (18 points, 11 rebounds) to drop 19 and 17 points respectively. And Florida’s 90 points was almost 7 points over their season average, and also was the most by an Auburn opponent inside Neville Arena all season.
Other than the 6-11 Condon, the common denominator in Auburn losses has been dynamic guards that can press Auburn’s defense both in transition and the half-court set. A team with a superstar guard that can also force the Tigers to defend the paint can certainly be trouble.
At 23-5 and ranked No. 6 heading into March, Alabama’s losses are more varied – having stumbled offensively on the road and at home at times, and then being outscored in offensive shootouts.
Alabama went cold for a critical stretch in the second half against Purdue on Nov 15, allowing the Boilermakers to reel off a 13-0 run midway through the second half to win 87-78 in East Lafayette. Purdue also took exceptional care of the basketball in the victory, turning it over just 3 times for its highest-ranked nonconference home win in history.
The Tide ran into a red-hot Oregon squad in the final of the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas just 15 days later – as Keeshawn Barthelemy poured in 22 points and the Ducks engineered a late-game 12-1 run to take down the 83-81 victory.
Alabama turned in its worst offensive effort of the season Jan. 14 at home against Ole Miss, and the Rebels made the Tide pay – winning 74-64. Nate Oats’ squad committed 21 turnovers that night, and Alabama managed to attempt only 47 shots from the field as a result.
The Tide are also still smarting from a recent 2-game slide, having dropped a 94-85 home loss to Auburn in a potential Final Four preview and then losing 4 days later at Mizzou. The collective Tigers combined for 204 points in the victories (Auburn won 94-85, and Missouri won 110-98), with Auburn shooting 46 percent from the field and Missouri lit up the Tide with 60% shooting.
Alabama’s losses signal that they can be beaten either by a relatively deliberate pace or by matching the Tide’s frenetic speed. All-American guard Mark Sears has been an inconsistent offensive presence at times this season, so frustrating him into poor decisions could end Alabama’s March dreams early.
Then again, there could be a simpler – and more historic – answer to who can ultimately derail Alabama and Auburn. After all, we saw glimmers of it once already on Feb. 15.
Provided the Tide and Tigers make it through the SEC Tournament unscathed (except by one another), they could well be on opposite sides of the NCAA Tournament and be on a collision course toward each other in the Final Four.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. He also hosts Gulfshore Sports with David Wasson, weekdays from 3-5 pm across Southwest Florida and on FoxSportsFM.com. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
