We’ve officially reached the Final Four in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
The men’s bracket has 4 heavyweights remaining — No. 1 seeds Arizona and Michigan, No. 2 seed UConn and No. 3 seed Illinois. These top-tier squads will meet at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday night.
Below is a deep dive into each game. If you subscribe to the 3points2 newsletter, you’ve already received this information in your inboxes this morning. Click here to sign up for our newsletter now.
Here’s everything you need to know about the games.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois (in Indianapolis)
- 🎥 Time/TV info: 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS/truTV/HBO Max
- 👀 Matchup to watch: Illinois’ pick-and-pop vs. UConn’s defense — The Huskies are elite at stopping catch-and-shoot 3s. Illinois is elite at creating open looks for its bigs via pick-and-pop offense. The great Jordan Sperber of Hoop Vision did an excellent breakdown of how Illinois has shattered records for pick-and-pop 3-point shooting this year by using empty-side ball screens and across middle action to lead to open 3s. Per Sperber, Illinois averages an unheard of 5.1 pick-and-pop 3-point attempts per game. Loyola (MD) was second, taking 3.6 per contest. If Illinois gets open looks from beyond the arc, the Illini will likely advance. If UConn continues to play stifling perimeter defense, the Huskies will likely move on to face the winner of the game we’ll preview below.
- 🏀 Key note: I’ve mentioned this before, but Illinois barely forces turnovers defensively. The Illini rank No. 365 out of 365 Division I teams in turnover rate defensively, per BartTorvik. That could hurt Brad Underwood’s squad against a steady, veteran UConn team. The Huskies rank a modest 174th in offensive turnover rate, but as @BuriedTreys notes on X, the teams that have beaten UConn or at least made the Huskies sweat have pressured the ball. Seton Hall (No. 5 nationally in defensive turnover rate) gave the Huskies a scare. UConn lost to Marquette (No. 38) and twice to St. John’s (No. 42). UConn committed 15 turnovers in the Big East Tournament loss to St. John’s and 14 in the regular-season finale loss to Marquette. Illinois has only forced 14+ turnovers once this year, and that was when the Illini forced 16 turnovers in a 40-point win over LIU. Not a great sign for Saturday.
- 💰 The market says: Per Kalshi, Illinois has a 55% chance to win, while UConn has a 46% chance to advance.
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Trivia
Dan Hurley is 53 years old and will be coaching in his 3rd Final Four this week. What men’s basketball coach is the all-time leader in Final Four appearances before their 55th birthday and how many do they have?
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan (in Indianapolis)
- 🎥 Time/TV info: 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS/truTV/HBO Max
- 👀 Matchup to watch: Arizona’s starting 5 vs. Michigan’s No. 1 defense — They say defense wins championships. That certainly applies to this year’s Final Four. Per KenPom, Michigan has the No. 1 defensive rating in the nation. Arizona’s is No. 2. (UConn’s defense ranks No. 9 and Illinois checks in at No. 20.) But Arizona’s starting 5 of Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries, Ivan Kharchenkov, Koa Peat and Montiejus Krivas has been absolutely outstanding this year. That group has outscored opponents by 292 points this season so far. Broken down into an efficiency rating, Arizona’s starting 5 is outscoring opponents by 40.1 points per 100 possessions (via EvanMiya). That’s insane. Michigan’s starting 5 of Nimari Burnett, Elliot Cadeau, Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara outscored foes by a respectable 109 points on the year (24.2 points per 100 possessions). However, it’ll be interesting to see what happens when Roddy Gayle Jr. replaces Johnson. That 5-man lineup outscored other teams by 43.1 points per 100 possessions this year. The problem? They were only on the court together for 86 total offensive possessions. Coach Dusty May will have some lineup decisions to make as the game goes on.
- 🏀 Key note: This game will likely come down to how close Michigan can keep the free-throw margin. Arizona is almost certainly going to attempt more shots from the line in this game, as the Wildcats led Division I with 750 free-throw makes on 1,020 attempts. Michigan allowed 467 makes from the stripe (157th in the nation) on 629 total attempts (131st). In 4 NCAA Tournament games thus far, Arizona has attempted 133 free throws, while opponents have only gone to the line 60 times. That’s better than a 2-to-1 advantage from the charity stripe. Michigan, for comparison, has attempted 100 free throws this tourney, compared to 63 for opponents. If the Wolverines can keep the free-throw margin to 1.5-1 or less in favor of the Wildcats, we’ll have ourselves a ballgame.
- 💰 The market says: Per Kalshi, Michigan has a 52% chance to win, while Arizona has a 48% chance to advance.
Answer
Mike Krzyzewski led Duke to a whopping 9 Final Fours before his 55th birthday, guiding the Blue Devils to the national semifinals in 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1999 and 2001. He turned 55 in 2002.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
