Week 10 of the college football season is in the books.
As we do every week in this piece, we’ll examine 10 prevailing college football narratives and see if they stack up to scrutiny. Last week, we covered LSU‘s athletic director situation, Bobby Petrino’s uncertain future at Arkansas, North Carolina‘s defensive improvement and Texas‘s advantages against Vanderbilt.
10 college football ideas to buy or sell
Let’s dive in:
Buying: Auburn is in position to make a huge leap under its next head coach
While Hugh Freeze never delivered the results Auburn was looking for, he is undoubtedly leaving the program better than he found it. The Tigers signed top-10 high school recruiting classes in 2025 and 2024, giving the next coach an excellent foundation to work from — provided Auburn can keep all that talent on the Plains through the coaching transitions.
Auburn has a young core that includes Deuce Knight, Cam Coleman, Malcolm Simmons and a half dozen or so key defensive contributors who have multiple years of eligibility remaining after 2025. If Auburn can keep all of that talent out of the portal, it could have a very quick rebuild under its next head coach. I wouldn’t even completely rule out a Playoff appearance if everything breaks right next season.
Selling: Notre Dame’s performance vs. Boston College was cause for concern
If you’re holding any Notre Dame futures, including the Irish’s odds to make the Playoff, I wouldn’t worry too much about the Irish’s underwhelming 25-10 win in Chestnut Hill on Saturday. The margin of victory was low and Notre Dame made some key mistakes, but Marcus Freeman’s team absolutely dominated on a down-to-down basis. Notre Dame won the yards-per-play battle by a margin of 8.3 to 3.6.
So far this season, there have been 17 games played between FBS teams where one team gained more than 8 yards per play and its opponent gained under 4 yards per play. The average margin of victory in those contests? A whopping 44.7 points.
If anything, I’m inclined to buy more Notre Dame stock given this result. It was another dominant performance for the Fighting Irish and now Freeman’s staff will have something to fire up the team about ahead of next week’s game vs. Navy.
Pick: Notre Dame team total over 41.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Buying: The ACC will be a 1-bid league this season
The ACC quietly had a disastrous weekend. Miami, its front-runner and the only team the rest of the country seems to have respect for, lost to SMU. Georgia Tech, a team who was getting top-5 buzz, lost to NC State. Those results basically eliminate all possibility of the ACC getting more than 1 team in to the College Football Playoff this season. It’s only Nov. 3, but the ACC is out of undefeated teams and only has 3 teams remaining that have just 1 loss.
There will surely be chaos down the stretch, but it’s virtually impossible to construct a scenario where more than 1 ACC team makes the field this season. It would likely have to involve Georgia Tech upsetting Georgia in Week 14 but losing in the ACC title game. But even then, would a 11-2 Georgia Tech team make the CFP? I think there’s a real chance it wouldn’t, given that its strength-of-schedule (per FPI) currently ranks 84th.
Here’s another FPI-backed stat to put the ACC’s struggles into perspective: Virginia currently has the best chance to win the league at 31.2%, per FPI. However, FPI only gives the Cavaliers a 29% chance to make the College Football Playoff. That means FPI’s model shows a small — but statistically present — chance that Virginia wins the ACC but isn’t one of the 5 highest-ranked conference champions on selection day. FPI also only has 1 ACC team (Miami) included in its top 20 entering Week 11.
Selling: Virginia is a top-25 team
Speaking of Virginia, the Cavaliers are ranked No. 12 in this week’s AP Top 25. Looking through history, you’d be hard-pressed to find a team ranked in the top-15 this late in the season that’s as mediocre as this Virginia squad. Virginia’s résumé includes a loss to NC State, a 2-point win over Washington State, a 1-point overtime win over North Carolina and a 10-point win over Cal. The Cavaliers are 3-0 in overtime games this year.
Virginia ranks 62nd in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-played metric. It sits at No. 43 in Bill Connelly’s updated SP+ rankings. The Cavs are also just No. 46 in FPI despite having the highest odds to win the ACC (which really says it all). Virginia is ranked where it is because of its record, which is fine — the AP Poll is more of a résumé ranker than anything else. But Virginia has very little chance to make any real noise this postseason and shouldn’t be considered a top-25 team from a power ratings standpoint.
Buying: Arch Manning has made real progress
Arch Manning has seemingly made some real progress since his early and mid-season struggles. Over his last 2 games, Manning has thrown for 674 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception in wins over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
I don’t want to be results-oriented here, so let’s look under the hood. Per PFF, Manning’s improvement has come with a significantly lower average depth of target. In Weeks 1 through 8, Manning’s ADOT was an impressive 9.2. However, that’s about all there was to be excited about regarding Manning’s profile. He had a turnover-worthy play rate of 3.8% and his average yards per attempt was relatively low at 7.7.
Over Manning’s last 2 games, he’s lowered his ADOT to 7.4 yards but his average yards per attempt is up to 8.5. He also doesn’t have a turnover-worthy play over that span. To me, that indicates that Manning is seeing the field better and is able to hit the receivers that Steve Sarkisian is scheming open for him. On intermediate throws over the past 2 games, Manning is 11-of-18 for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’ll play.
Buying: Texas Tech is by far the Big 12’s best team
College GameDay is headed to Lubbock this weekend to showcase what will be the most important Big 12 game in weeks: Texas Tech vs. BYU. The Red Raiders are big favorites — they’ve clobbered everyone in this league with the exception of Arizona State, whom they lost to when starting quarterback Behren Morton was hurt.
But BYU enters this game undefeated — somewhat improbably — and therefore appears to be a legitimate threat to Texas Tech’s Big 12 title hopes. Assuming Morton can stay healthy, though, I don’t think the Cougars are all that dangerous for Texas Tech. BYU’s profile on the road hasn’t been impressive this season. It barely beat Colorado and needed overtime to pull out a win against Arizona last month. The Cougars did win in Ames by a couple touchdowns, but they played a compromised Iowa State team (and still got out-gained on a yards-per-play basis).
I think this Texas Tech offense will have a huge day. Anyone who has been to games of this magnitude in Lubbock will tell you how intense the atmosphere is. With GameDay in town for the first time since Michael Crabtree and Mike Leach beat No. 1 Texas back in 2008, I think Texas Tech will be ready to make a massive statement.
Pick: Texas Tech team total over 31.5 (-105 on DraftKings)
Buying: Julian Sayin is a deserved Heisman leader
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has surged to the top of the Heisman Trophy odds board. While I don’t think it’s any kind of foregone conclusion that Sayin will win, I do think he’s a good bet at this point. I’ve been down on Fernando Mendoza’s candidacy for weeks and I still don’t see a significant path for him unless the Hoosiers upset Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Alabama’s Ty Simpson may be undervalued at this stage as well.
But Sayin appears to be the total package. He leads the nation in passer efficiency rating and yards per attempt. He’s the quarterback of the No. 1 team in the country. And perhaps most importantly, Sayin appears to be peaking at the right time. Over his last 5 games, Sayin has thrown for 1,409 yards, 15 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He hasn’t thrown a pick since September and now has back-to-back 4 TD games in Big Ten play entering Week 11. I think Sayin should probably be the odds-on favorite at this point, but you can still get him well above that price at most sports betting apps.
Pick: Julian Sayin to win the Heisman Trophy (+175 on BetMGM)
Buying: USC can still make the Playoff
USC’s win over Nebraska on Saturday went under the radar, but I think it was a pretty massive result for the Big Ten’s chances to get 4 College Football Playoff bids. The Trojans are now 6-2 on the season and will play home games against Iowa and Northwestern over the next couple of weeks. They close the year with UCLA at home as well.
Given what we’ve seen from USC at home this season, I feel pretty good about USC winning all 3 of those games. Only the Iowa game should have a chance to be competitive in the fourth quarter, but I think the Trojans get the job done there.
That leaves a Week 13 trip to Eugene, Oregon, for USC. That could be a de-facto play-in game for USC and I don’t think there’s much reason to believe the Ducks are significantly better than Lincoln Riley’s team. Let’s review Oregon’s résumé: 14-point win over Wisconsin, 10-point home loss to Indiana and an overtime win over Penn State. That result against the Nittany Lions has aged horribly, but so has the relatively close game against the Badgers. There’s a chance this Oregon team just isn’t elite. If that’s the case, would it really be so shocking if USC went in to Autzen and came out with a win on Nov. 22?
USC is 12th in SP+ and No. 3 in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric. Even with 2 losses already, I think USC is a real threat to earn a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Pick: USC to make the College Football Playoff (+500 on DraftKings)
Selling: Dabo Swinney can fix things at Clemson long-term
After seeing Clemson lose yet another ACC home game on Saturday, it seems clear that the Tigers have peaked under Dabo Swinney. The 2-time national championship coach won’t be fired anytime soon, but Swinney seems to have lost the faith of the locker room and the program in general. That was evidenced by his tirade against the Clemson defense after the Tigers conceded 28 points to Duke in the first half.
It’s also clear that Clemson is no longer operating at a level above the rest of the ACC. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Tigers have lost 7 home games. Only a handful of ACC schools have more home losses over that period. For context — from 2014 to 2022, Clemson lost a grand total of 2 home games.
Swinney has hinted at potentially leaving Clemson in the past. Perhaps now is the time? There are several high-profile SEC jobs available this cycle — something that won’t always be the case. There wouldn’t be any shame in Swinney leaving Clemson after a 17-year run as head coach. Sometimes you’ve just stayed at a place for too long — perhaps a reset would be best for all parties involved.
Selling: Tuesday night’s CFP rankings are meaningless
The College Football Playoff selection committee will unveil their first rankings of the season on Tuesday night. That show will be broadcast on ESPN (YouTube TV subscribers can get a SlingTV promo here). While none of the early rankings releases are as important as the final one, they can still tell us a lot about how the committee views certain teams and conferences in a broad sense.
That’s especially true this season, especially with the new strength-of-scheduling methodology that was announced earlier this year in the wake of only 3 SEC teams making last year’s CFP title game. As a refresher, here’s an excerpt from the press release announcing the change:
Changes for the upcoming season include enhancements to the tools that the selection committee uses to assess schedule strength and how teams perform against their schedule. The current schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents. An additional metric, record strength, has been added to the selection committee’s analysis to go beyond a team’s schedule strength to assess how a team performed against that schedule. This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team. Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.
It’s too early to know for sure if these changes will benefit the SEC, but we should get a first glimpse at the impact of this new approach on Thursday night. If the rankings look significantly different than they would have in prior years, it’s worth taking into consideration what that means for the CFP futures market.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
