It’s time for the penultimate week of the 2025 college football season.
With Week 12 in the books, let’s take stock of the slate of games we just absorbed and break down some of the emerging narratives in college football. Last week, we discussed the ACC’s struggles, LSU’s quarterback situation, Alabama’s offensive issues and Washington’s bounce-back potential, among other topics.
10 college football ideas to buy or sell
Let’s dive in for Week 12:
Selling: Oklahoma is a Playoff lock
Oklahoma gutted out a 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. This victory was both a big step in the right direction for the Sooners and also a pretty flukey result. On the one hand, this is exactly the type of game Oklahoma often lost under Brent Venables in the early part of his tenure — coming out on top shouldn’t be easily dismissed.
On the other hand, Oklahoma gained just over 200 yards and struggled to move the ball into scoring range for most of the game. The Sooners won because they converted 3 Alabama turnovers into 17 points. Great for OU to win the game, but I’m not so sure that’s a repeatable strategy down the stretch. To that point, Oklahoma’s postgame win expectancy per ESPN’s Bill Connelly was just 4.8%. That’s the lowest for any winning team this weekend.
At 8-2 with a favorable schedule remaining, the Sooners look like they’re on track to make the College Football Playoff. But with lingering injuries on defense and consistency issues on offense, I wouldn’t be shocked if Oklahoma slips up in 1 of its last 2 games of the season vs. Mizzou or LSU.Â
Buying: Alabama will be fine
I picked Oklahoma last weekend, but I actually came away from that game thinking Alabama deserved to win (and cover the spread) based on how it played. The Crimson Tide had a few too many negative plays, but they also created a ton of explosives. It took Oklahoma more than half the game to figure out a solution for tight end Josh Cuevas.
Alabama nearly had a positive EPA on the day despite enduring 3 back-breaking turnovers — that’s pretty tough to do. All in all, it was Alabama’s best offensive performance in several weeks.
Of course, the Crimson Tide do need to find a solution for Ty Simpson’s fumbling issues. Simpson has now fumbled in 5-straight games and has really struggled against pressure this season. I think Alabama will be fine over its last 2 games of the season — including against Auburn in Week 14 — but that’s a problem the Tide will have to solve if they’re going to win the SEC or make a dent in the CFP this season.Â
Buying: Texas A&M earned its come back win
If you just looked at the underlying metrics from Texas A&M’s furious comeback win over South Carolina, you’d have no clue this game was ever close. From Game on Paper:
- Success rate: Texas A&M 47%, South Carolina 25%
- EPA-per-play: Texas A&M 0.01, South Carolina -0.2
- EPA-per-drop back: Texas A&M 0.45, South Carolina -0.18
- Explosive play rate: Texas A&M 10%, South Carolina 8%
It was a great effort from the Gamecocks, but Texas A&M was the rightful winner of that game — and that’s without factoring in all of A&M’s unforced errors in the first half that put the Aggies in a 30-3 hole. Texas A&M almost lost outright as a 19-point favorite, which would be concerning under most circumstances. But in this case, I wouldn’t downgrade the Aggies too much going into Week 13.
Buying: James Madison is a CFP threat
James Madison hasn’t garnered much hype this season, but Bob Chesney’s bunch is certainly a threat to earn a College Football Playoff spot down the stretch. The Dukes might be even better than when Curt Cignetti was in charge before he moved to Bloomington. JMU is 9-1 this season (its only loss came against Louisville) and just finished up a thrashing of Appalachian State in Week 12.Â
JMU’s path to the Playoff isn’t a no-brainer, but it’s definitely viable if it gets a few breaks.
It’s possible a 3-loss ACC team like Pitt or SMU will win that conference, which would put the selection committee in a tough spot (assuming James Madison runs the table and finishes at 12-1). It’s also not out of the question that James Madison would end the season ranked higher than the AAC’s champion. South Florida’s loss to Navy puts the Bulls’ Playoff hopes in serious doubt.
North Texas is the last AAC team with only 1 conference loss, but the Mean Green weren’t ranked by the selection committee last week. We should get an answer on Tuesday night regarding how the committee feels about JMU and North Texas. For what it’s worth (maybe not much) the AP Top 25 has James Madison ranked 1 spot ahead of UNT this week.
It’s worth noting ESPN’s Football Power Index currently gives the Dukes a 52.4% chance to make the Playoff. Given the current market prices, I think there’s value on betting JMU to get there.
Pick: James Madison to make the Playoff (+250 on DraftKings)
Buying: Alex Golesh would be a great hire by Arkansas
One under-the-radar coaching carousel thing that happened this weekend: Alex Golesh is the favorite to land the Arkansas job over on Kalshi. Golesh overtook Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield for that position on Saturday morning and has maintained that lead through the weekend.
Golesh checks a lot of boxes for Arkansas. He has head coaching experience, is well-regarded as a play caller and has SEC roots. Prior to becoming the head coach at South Florida, Golesh was an assistant at Tennessee under Josh Heupel.Â
USF’s loss this past weekend also likely takes Golesh out of the running for a College Football Playoff appearance. That could be a positive for a program like Arkansas that would like to make a hire relatively quickly.
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Selling: Georgia Tech is a postseason threat
Any hope of Georgia Tech getting it together for the postseason should be out the window after Saturday. The Yellow Jackets just simply don’t have it on the defensive side of the ball. Following a narrow comeback win over a terrible Boston College team, Georgia Tech now ranks 129th out of 134 FBS teams in EPA-per-play allowed.
Georgia Tech’s résumé now includes a 7-point win over Colorado, a 3-point win over Clemson, a 1-point overtime win over Wake Forest, a 2-point win over Boston College and a loss to NC State. Nothing about that suggests Georgia Tech is capable of doing much damage in late November or early December. The schedule only gets tougher from here, as the Yellow Jackets close out the season with Pittsburgh and Georgia. I think it’s time to fade Georgia Tech.
Pick: Pitt +3 (-115 on Fanatics)
Buying: Virginia should be the ACC favorite
Along those same lines, I think Virginia should be the clear favorite in the ACC. It’s far from a lock that Virginia will reach the conference title game, but the Cavaliers do have lots of scenarios where they clinch a spot in Charlotte as long as they beat Virginia Tech in Week 14. Virginia could still get left out due to tiebreaker scenarios, but the Cavaliers to have the cleanest path to a 7-1 ACC record.
Plus, Virginia is coming off of a rather impressive road win at Duke in Week 12. The Cavaliers have the best pass defense among any of the ACC’s contenders, which could prove to be a big deal down the stretch. I don’t think Virginia is a real threat to win a Playoff game — should it get there — but I do like the Cavs to win the ACC more than any of the other options entering Week 13.
Pick: Virginia to win the ACC (+300 on BetMGM)
Buying: Texas still has hope to reach the CFP
Texas picked up its third loss of the season on Saturday, dropping another game to Georgia. That’s the Bulldogs’ third win over Texas in the last 2 seasons alone. Despite that result — and Texas’s previous losses to Ohio State and Florida — I don’t think the Longhorns are out of the College Football Playoff race.Â
That’s mainly because Texas has a huge opportunity in Week 14 — it could potentially knock off an 11-0 Texas A&M team during the final week of the season. That game is in Austin, too, and Texas A&M has not been quite as impressive on the road this season — particularly on defense.
Even at 9-3, Texas will need significant help. Oklahoma would need to lose to either Mizzou or LSU. Vanderbilt might need to lose to Tennessee in Week 14. A stunning Notre Dame loss would be highly convenient. Texas fans should also be rooting for Oregon to beat USC on Saturday — the 10-2 Trojans stealing a bid is a real possibility at this point. Texas needs Texas Tech to run the table in the Big 12, too. The path is slim, but it’s still there with 2 weeks to go.Â
Selling: Miami has an at-large CFP case
I’ve noticed some chatter that Miami should get some consideration for an at-large berth in the College Football Playoff if it goes 10-2. Frankly, I don’t see how the selection committee could discuss that for more than a minute with a straight face. As we broke down last week, this year’s ACC is one of the weakest power conferences in recent memory. The league as a whole is 6-16 with a -205 point differential against the other power conferences this season. It would be unconscionable to give this ACC more than 1 CFP bid. I’m not sure this version of the ACC should get 2 bids even if we had a 16-team format this season. There are more than a dozen teams vying for 7 at-large spots who are significantly more deserving than Miami.
Yes, Miami beat Notre Dame — a team that’s currently on track to make the CFP with 2 losses. No, head-to-head shouldn’t out-weigh the rest of the résumé discrepancies between these teams. Miami has losses to SMU and Louisville — teams that are nowhere near the CFP discussion as things currently stand. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been thumping teams for the better part of 2 months. That stretch includes comfortable wins over Playoff-hopefuls such as USC and Pittsburgh. Miami sleep-walked through the middle part of its schedule and now has to face the consequences of another failed season.
Buying: Jake Dickert should get Coach of the Year buzz
Look, Jake Dickert is not going to win any national Coach of the Year awards this season. He may not even get the nod in the ACC. But I do think it’s worth highlighting what he’s accomplished in his first year in Winston-Salem. Wake will enter Week 13 with a legitimate chance to go 9-3 in the regular season.
Dickert has beaten established coaches (to varying degrees) like Rhett Lashlee, Tony Elliott and Bill Belichick in recent weeks. Wake also nearly upset Georgia Tech early in the season and did pull off big road wins in Blacksburg and Corvallis. It’s been an unmitigated success for Dickert in Year 1. The advanced metrics mostly back it up, too. Wake enters Week 13 ranked No. 39 nationally in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric.
As a reminder, Dave Clawson led Wake to a 4-8 record in back-to-back seasons before stepping aside on Dec. 16, 2024 — very late in the modern hiring cycle for college football. Wake hired Dickert 2 days later. We’ll see if it’s sustainable, but things are off to a great start in Winston-Salem.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
