10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 3

Week 3 of the college football season is in the books.

As we do every week, this story will take a look at some of the narratives that have emerged from Saturday’s slate and see if they match up with what the underlying data is telling us. Last week, we broke down Oklahoma’s offensive prowess, South Carolina’s struggles, Vanderbilt’s improvements and a lot more.

10 college football predictions after Week 2

With that being said, here’s 10 ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 2:

Buying: Oregon’s offense is elite with Dante Moore

No Dillon Gabriel, no problem. Oregon’s multi-year gambit to recruit Dante Moore appears to be paying off. The former 5-star quarterback is off to a torrid start, throwing for 657 yards, 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception so far this season. Moore has sat out multiple quarters already as the Ducks have had big leads late in all 3 contests, so he’s crammed that production into a relatively short window. With Moore leading the way, Oregon is No. 5 in the country in EPA-per-pass and No. 10 in passing success rate.

History suggests Oregon will have an elite passing offense all season. Will Stein is in his third season as offensive coordinator in Eugene. Since the start of the 2023 season when Stein took over, Oregon has led the country with 7.21 yards per play. The Ducks, collectively, are also No. 1 in passer efficiency rating (176.1) over that same span. And while Moore may not have the experience Gabriel and Bo Nix did, he’s arguably the most talented player of that group.

I’ve been hesitant to make any Heisman Trophy bets this year given the level of uncertainty around the top returning quarterbacks in the sport. That looks like it was the prudent choice considering the early struggles from Garrett Nussmeier, Cade Klubnik and others. But Moore looks like he’s going to be in this race all year. Looking at the schedule, Oregon plays Penn State in a likely top-5 matchup on Sept. 27. If the Ducks win that game, Moore is clearly going to be at the top of the Heisman Trophy favorites board heading into October. Even if Oregon loses that game, it could go 11-1 given its Big Ten schedule and Moore would have a path to winning the award.

Pick: Dante Moore to win the Heisman Trophy (+1300 on FanDuel)

Buying: Ty Simpson is good enough to get Alabama to where it wants to go

After a sluggish start, Ty Simpson looks like the answer at quarterback for Alabama. His 17-for-17 performance against ULM in Week 2 was notable, but I was even more impressed with what he did as a follow-up against the Badgers on Saturday: 382 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 29 pass attempts. That’s not normal. That’s over 13 yards per attempt. No other SEC quarterback since the turn of the century has cleared that threshold vs. a Big Ten defense in the regular season (min. 25 attempts).

It’s still a relatively low sample size, but Simpson seems to have put a poor showing vs. Florida State behind him. And the Noles have been excellent over the past couple of weeks, so it’s possible FSU is just a much better team — and defense — than anyone gave it credit for before the season began. With Simpson leading the charge, Alabama has been in the top-10 in passing EPA and success rate so far this season. And that’s been extremely important for the Crimson Tide, because they’ve really struggled to run the ball effectively with Jam Miller still on the shelf.

I’m not sure what the ceiling for this Alabama team is. But however high the Tide can get this year, I feel good about Simpson as the guy leading the charge on offense.

Selling: Vanderbilt is a middle-of-the-pack SEC team

I was in on Vanderbilt and out on South Carolina from pretty much every angle possible last week. That proved to be the correct angle as the Commodores cruised to a 31-7 win. But the underlying metrics aren’t nearly as impressed with Vandy as the final score suggests. Per Game on Paper, Vanderbilt’s success rate actually lagged behind South Carolina’s. The yards-per-play race was basically a draw — 5.1 for the Commodores and 5.2 for the Gamecocks. 

Vanderbilt is a much better team this year, I don’t want to distract from that. But it’s not as decisive as the final score makes it appear — especially not since LaNorris Sellers missed most of this game due to injury. I think we’ll see some regression from Clark Lea’s team in the future. Vanderbilt plays Georgia State and Utah State over the next couple of weeks, so the time may not be right to cash in on the Commodores’ hype. But stash this away for when SEC play continues in a few weeks. 

Buying: Miami is the class of the ACC

With respect to Florida State, I’m backing Miami as the ACC’s best team in 2025. The Hurricanes absolutely throttled South Florida on Saturday, winning by 37 points. You could point to it being a good spot for the Canes with USF finally running out of gas after a third-straight high-profile game to start the year. But Miami has Florida on deck, so this was also a spot where the Canes could have been caught looking ahead to next week.

Mario Cristobal and Carson Beck made sure that didn’t happen. Offensively, Miami looks excellent through the air and on the ground. The Canes have an elite offensive line and Beck has looked more like the 2023 version of himself so far this season. Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. has also quietly been one of the nation’s best running backs this year.

Defensively, Miami seems to be much improved under new coordinator Corey Hetherman. The metrics show an elite rushing defense and a solid secondary, albeit in a small sample size.

Miami is 16th in schedule-adjusted EPA per play so far this season, per Game on Paper. The only other ACC team in the top-30 is Pittsburgh at No. 25 (Florida State would be there if it had played 3 FBS games). From a roster talent standpoint, FSU might be the only team in the ACC who could keep up with the Canes for an entire season. And yet, Miami is still nowhere close to being an odds-on favorite to win this conference. I think that’s a mistake.

Pick: Miami to win the ACC (+180 on BetMGM)

Buying: Texas A&M better enjoy Collin Klein while it still can

Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein is quickly becoming one of the top-rated play-callers in the sport. The former Kansas State quarterback has turned the Aggies into a borderline elite offense with Marcel Reed running the show. That’s no small feat — Reed is a good quarterback but passing has never been his strongest trait. And yet, the Aggies averaged 9.73 yards per drop back according to Game on Paper. 

The Aggies put together an excellent offensive performance against a Fighting Irish defense that was in the national title game a year ago. Texas A&M’s EPA-per-play was good enough for the 91st percentile, per Game on Paper — and the Aggies did all that on the road in South Bend. 

It’s of course worth noting that Klein’s alma mater, Kansas State, is currently a mess. The Wildcats are 1-3 on the season and head coach Chris Klieman is in serious jeopardy of losing his job. I’d imagine Klein’s potential readiness to take over in Manhattan might make his seat even hotter. Klein was an excellent quarterback for Kansas State under Bill Snyder more than a decade ago and he’s clearly on a head coach trajectory. 

Selling: Arch Manning deserves patience

After Week 1, I wrote that Manning deserved more time to prove himself even after a pretty unremarkable performance against the Buckeyes in Columbus. Now, after an absolutely horrendous showing vs. UTEP, I’m beginning to question that opinion. Manning’s surface stats have been terrible. He’s completed 55% of his passes and is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt. 

Under the hood, it’s worse. Per PFF, Manning is 11th out of 13 qualified SEC quarterbacks in passer grade. His 6.1% turnover-worthy play rate is only topped by Florida’s DJ Lagway, who was hurt all offseason. Lagway threw 5 interceptions against LSU on Saturday, has faced a much tougher schedule overall and his turnover-worthy play rate is still just barely worse than Manning’s at 6.7%. 

Manning’s dead-end throw rate is also abysmal, checking in at almost 66%. That means almost two-thirds of his throws are either incompletions or have gone for 4 yards or fewer. You could point to it being a small sample size with one of those games coming against the vaunted Ohio State defense. But Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin has faced a similar strength-of-schedule to Manning (Texas and 2 non-power teams) and he leads the entire country in dead-end throw rate at 31%. 

Manning has simply not been accurate enough to be considered a high-level quarterback. It’s alarming, too, as Manning is in his third season of college football already. As some enterprising Oklahoma fans pointed out on social media this week, Manning is actually a touch older than Sooners quarterback John Mateer. Maybe Manning will end up OK, but it’s no longer a stretch to say that his start has been very concerning. 

Buying: It’s time to take USC seriously

Don’t look now, but Lincoln Riley might be learning from his mistakes. USC quietly fired its embattled strength coach back in the spring, the first sign that the Trojans would be operating differently in 2025. Ahead of USC’s first road trip to the Eastern time zone this week, Riley confirmed USC would be making some changes to USC’s travel routine. The Trojans took a bigger plane, adjusted its sleep schedules and put more effort into coordinating optimal meal times. The result? A comfortable 33-17 win over Purdue on the road. 

All of this follows what was a demoralizing 2024 campaign for USC when Riley previously downplayed concerns about the strength and conditioning program as well as USC’s travel regimen. The Trojans went just 6-6 during the regular season and 4-5 during their first Big Ten season. They lost all 4 of their true road games last season to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington. Those 4 losses came by a grand total of 16 points, so there’s certainly reason to believe a little more work on the margins could have led to different results. 

So far, so good in 2025. Jayden Maiava leads the entire country in passer efficiency rating and is averaging more than 14 yards per attempt. The Trojans have absolutely steamrolled all of their opponents so far. USC ranks No. 1 in the country in scheduled-adjusted EPA per play so far this season, per Game on Paper. And while tougher tests are certainly still to come, it’s encouraging that Riley is taking the steps to optimize what USC can be. 

I think the Big Ten could once again get 4 teams into the College Football Playoff. Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State look like locks, but who would the fourth team be? I could see the Trojans getting in if things continue at this pace.

Pick: USC to make the College Football Playoff (+320 on bet365)

Buying: Ole Miss has a QB controversy

I was on Arkansas to cover the spread last week against Ole Miss, and the Hogs ended up getting there. But after seeing what Trinidad Chambliss did to the Razorbacks in his first career SEC start, I have no idea. Chambliss threw for 353 yards and 1 touchdown on 29 pass attempts. He also rushed for 2 more scores and could have had another touchdown if he didn’t have to briefly exit the game to be treated for a hand injury. 

Chambliss, a Ferris State transfer, was beyond any reasonable expectations. He performed so well that I think it’s fair to question whether Austin Simmons will still be Ole Miss’s starter after he comes back from injury. Unfortunately, Simmons appeared to aggravate the lower-body injury initially injured in Week 2, so it may be longer than expected before he’s able to start again for the Rebels. But for Ole Miss, I’m not so sure Chambliss isn’t the best option anyways. His passer efficiency rating of 186 was higher than any quarterback has managed vs. any SEC defense all season. 

Selling: LSU is a top-tier SEC contender

It’s hard to say this about a team that beat Clemson and Florida in relatively comfortable fashion before mid-September, but I’m out on LSU as a legitimate threat to win the SEC in 2025. 

LSU had every advantage in this game. The Tigers were at home. And not only that, they were under the lights in Death Valley — a setting that seems to grow more and more intimidating for opposing fans with each passing year. The Gators were coming off of an extremely embarrassing loss to South Florida. DJ Lagway missed the vast majority of Florida’s offseason practices due to various injuries and ended up throwing 5 (five) interceptions this game. 

And LSU still only won by 10? LSU can’t run the ball at all so far this year and Garrett Nussmeier, despite being near the top of the Heisman odds leaderboard, has been underwhelming too. He’s thrown 3 touchdown passes in 3 games and is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Whether it’s by Joe Sloan’s design or not, the reality is Nussmeier isn’t pushing the ball down the field like he did a year ago. His average depth of target is a laughable 6.7 yards, per Pro Football Focus. That’s 13th among SEC quarterbacks and he still has a mediocre turnover worthy play rate (3.6%). 

LSU’s defense is much improved and Blake Baker deserves a lot of credit for that. But until I see the Tigers shut down an offense that’s been good in an FBS game this season, I’m not giving them full credit for the turnaround. And offensively there seem to be some major signs of regression in the early going. 

Pick: LSU to NOT go undefeated during the regular season (-800 on DraftKings)

Selling: The ACC and Big 12 will get more than 1 Playoff bid each

It’s been a disastrous September for the ACC and the Big 12. Let’s start with the ACC: 

• 3 losses to non-power teams
• 2-6 against the SEC and Big Ten

With Clemson more or less eliminated from at-large contention already, the ACC is likely down to 2 possible Playoff contenders in Florida State and Miami. (Yes, technically, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Cal, NC State and Louisville are all still undefeated and could make it. I’m operating under the assumption that those programs don’t have the roster talent to do what SMU did a year ago, but perhaps that will be proven wrong). 

FSU and Miami will face off in a few weeks and then could have another meeting in the ACC Championship Game. Their nonconference résumés will afford them some breathing room for a conference loss, so it’s theoretically possible the ACC gets 2 bids again. But I think the overwhelming likelihood is the ACC champion is the only team who reaches the 12-team Playoff again this season. For one thing, this is Florida State and Miami we’re talking about — over the last 3 years these teams have combined for 9 outright losses to ACC teams when they were favored in Vegas. That’s really bad! These programs consistently have resource and talent advantages over their conference opponents and yet they routinely drop games they should win. I don’t think it’s particularly likely that we see a 12-0 Miami vs. an 11-1 Florida State (or vice versa) in the ACC title game this year. 

Now for the Big 12: 

• 2 losses to non-power teams
• 2-5 vs. the SEC and Big Ten

One of the Big 12’s victories over the Power 2 is Utah’s demolition of UCLA, which hardly counts. The Bruins are pretty clearly the worst power-conference team in the country this season (with apologies to Virginia Tech and Kansas State). 

The advanced metrics currently aren’t very impressed by any teams from the Big 12. Utah is the highest-ranked Big 12 team at No. 18 in FPI. ESPN’s SP+ is a little more bullish, putting both the Utes (15) and Texas Tech (12) in playoff range. Kelley Ford has Utah at No. 15, Texas Tech at No. 22 and no one else from the Big 12 in the top 30. You get the idea.  

Given what we’ve seen in nonconference matchups so far, I’d be surprised if either the ACC or the Big 12 managed to get more than 1 team apiece into the CFP this season.