Week 6 of the college football season is in the books.
And what a wild week it was. Penn State and Texas both lost on the road, putting their CFP hopes in serious jeopardy. Alabama got a legitimate upset scare from Vanderbilt. Miami trounced Florida State. And plenty more.
As always, this piece will use advanced stats to either back up or disprove some of the popular narratives that have emerged following the weekend. Last week, we broke down Auburn’s quarterback situation, CJ Carr’s elite talent and Oregon’s national title prowess, among other things.
10 ideas to buy or sell after Week 6
Here are 10 things I’m buying or selling after this week in college football:
Buying: The Bill Belichick experiment should end this year
Whether it be now or in a couple of months, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Bill Belichick experiment in Chapel Hill should end before 2026. Gone are the days when coaches are afforded a “Year 0” to meticulously build up a program from the inside out. That’s especially true when we’re talking about a 73-year-old coach in the transfer portal era who makes $10 million per year.
The results for UNC so far this year have been beyond appalling. North Carolina is 119th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. The only power-conference team ranked lower in that metric is Oklahoma State. There have been 19 instances this season of a power-conference team losing by 25+ points in a game so far this year. Three of those defeats belong to Belichick’s UNC team. UCLA and Oklahoma State, who have already fired their head coaches this year, are the only programs with more than 1 such defeat on their ledger.
Selling: Texas should be favored vs. Oklahoma this weekend
Even if John Mateer is out this week for the Red River Rivalry, I’m having a hard time seeing why Texas should be favored over Oklahoma this weekend. The Longhorns have been dreadful in both of their games against power-conference opposition. They averaged under 6 yards per play against both Ohio State and Florida. The Texas defense completely collapsed against the Gators in Gainesville last weekend, allowing a medically-compromised DJ Lagway to pass for 10.6 yards per attempt.
And yet, Circa opened Texas -3 on Sunday afternoon and the number hasn’t budged much at other sports betting apps. OU has its fair share of red flags (which have been covered in previous versions of this column) but I don’t quite understand the Sooners being an underdog given how strong their defense has been. SP+ is projecting Oklahoma to win this game by 7. That prediction doesn’t take Mateer’s injury status into account, but there’s still a huge gap between public projection models and what oddsmakers are expecting from this game. SP+ may be overrating the Sooners a bit — I wouldn’t say they should be favored by a full touchdown in this game — but I think they have the right side favored.
Pick: Oklahoma +3 (-115 on bet365)
Selling: Kansas State can’t make a bowl game
Kansas State has quietly shown some real progress since a disastrous start to the season. But the Wildcats are still 2-4 after taking a heartbreaking loss to Baylor over the weekend. Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy formula has K-State as the second unluckiest team in the country — that metric says K-State has won 1.64 fewer games than it should have. That, along with K-State’s offensive resurgence, would seem to point toward a potential strong second half of the season.
Will they make a bowl game? I’m not so sure. Texas Tech and Utah are on the schedule. K-State might even end up as a home dog to TCU this weekend. But the Wildcats seem to have figured something out even though they haven’t been rewarded in the win column yet. We’ll see if that changes in time for K-State to reach the postseason.
Buying: Alabama deserves to be the SEC favorite
After Week 1, it seemed like the Kalen DeBoer era was on thin ice. Everything since then has been about regaining the trust of Alabama fans, and DeBoer has done so with flying colors. Blowout wins over ULM and Wisconsin. A decisive victory over Georgia and a triumphant result against an upset-minded Vanderbilt team.
Entering Week 7, there’s no doubt Alabama should be the favorite to win the SEC this season. The Crimson Tide have a clear path to the title game with their schedule — Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma all have to come to Tuscaloosa. Mizzou and Auburn are tough SEC road games, but I think even most Tigers fans — in both cases — would acknowledge those won’t be tougher tests than the one Alabama passed in Athens a couple of weeks ago. An 11-1 regular season is on the table and Alabama almost certainly still makes the SEC title game at 10-2.
Alabama is also the most well-balanced team in the conference from a statistical profile standpoint. Its one weakness, rushing offense, seems to be fixed following the return of Jam Miller. Every other contender has a potentially-fatal flaw. Oklahoma can’t run the ball. Ole Miss can’t stop the run. Georgia and Tennessee can’t stop the pass. Mizzou hasn’t thrown the ball downfield much yet. Garrett Nussmeier seems to be hurt for LSU. The list goes on.
Pick: Alabama to win the SEC Championship Game (+210 on DraftKings)
Buying: James Franklin should move on from Penn State … if he can
I’m a longstanding James Franklin defender, but the loss to UCLA over the weekend was too much to stomach even for me. You simply can not lose outright as a 24+ point favorite — especially when your entire identity is built around winning games as a favorite. On merit for what he’s done over his tenure, Franklin doesn’t deserve to be fired. And he almost certainly won’t be — his buyout is reportedly north of $50 million.
But Franklin should start looking for an exit ramp before this situation gets too out of control. His success at Penn State has almost certainly peaked — it’s hard to imagine him recovering from this season’s disappointment. The question is whether or not Franklin’s reputation in big games is too toxic for him to land a job similar to the one he currently has? It’s possible Florida or Auburn fans would balk at bringing in Franklin despite his consistent track record of winning 10+ games. If that’s not the case, though, Franklin should seriously consider moving jobs this winter.
Buying: Notre Dame has stabilized its defense
When Notre Dame held Arkansas to 13 points a couple of weeks ago, I dismissed it as evidence of the Razorbacks quitting on Sam Pittman. It appears that may have been a mistake. The Fighting Irish held a solid Boise State team to just 7 points on Saturday and ended up covering a -20.5 point spread in a 28-7 win. If you had told me before the game that Notre Dame was only going to score 28 points, I would have thought the Broncos had a legitimate chance to win outright.
Instead, Notre Dame suffocated the Broncos. Boise put up very poor EPA-per-play numbers (15th percentile, per Game on Paper) and generated just 2 explosive plays all afternoon. And oh yeah, Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen threw 4 interceptions. That’s not going to work against Notre Dame. The Broncos stayed in front of the chains at a decent rate (45% success rate) but that doesn’t matter as much when you’re turning the ball over and never generating explosive plays. Including the Arkansas game, that’s 2 solid defensive performances in a row for Notre Dame. That’s worth noting as the College Football Playoff picture continues to develop over the coming weeks.
Buying: Texas Tech might get a CFP bye
Texas Tech dismantled Houston on the road on Friday, moving to 5-0 on the season. The Red Raiders have emerged as the clear favorite in the Big 12. Given their growing reputation as a big spender in the NIL space, I don’t think it’s out of the question to consider Texas Tech as a potential top-4 seed in this year’s Playoff should they end the year 13-0. Bill Connelly’s numbers give Texas Tech nearly a 40% chance to run the table and go 12-0. They’d be big favorites over anyone in the Big 12 title game should they get there.
At 13-0, is a 2-or-3 loss SEC team beating out Texas Tech for a bye in the opening round of the CFP? I really doubt it. Especially if the advanced metrics continue to recognize Texas Tech as elite statistically. The Red Raiders are up 6 spots to No. 14 in FPI this week. They’re likely to continue rising as long as they keep stringing together elite performances.
Pick: Texas Tech to make the College Football Playoff (-190 on BetMGM)
Selling: Carson Beck as the Heisman Trophy favorite
Miami quarterback Carson Beck is now the Heisman Trophy betting favorite at some books, including BetMGM where he’s +500. The case for him is pretty simple — he has name recognition on a team that’s potentially going to go 13-0 before Heisman ballots are due. That’s definitely worth something. However, it’s worth noting Miami likely won’t play a single ranked team until the ACC Championship Game — and it’s possible the Canes won’t see a ranked opponent in that game, either. That’s going to make it difficult to build momentum through the month of November.
I’d also note that Carson Beck’s passer efficiency rating right now is 168.5. That’s a solid number and would represent a career-high for Beck, but it’s not spectacular. He currently ranks 15th for the 2025 season. In the CFP era, the only Heisman-winning quarterbacks to have a passer efficiency rating below 170 before ballots were due were Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams. Those aren’t great comps for Beck, of course, because Jackson also rushed for over 1,500 yards and 21 touchdowns during the regular season in 2016. Williams rushed for 372 yards and 10 touchdowns and had the benefit of a particularly weak Heisman pool in 2022.
Selling: Florida turned a corner against Texas
I’m not so sure Florida has turned a corner despite its big win over Texas. It’s excellent news for the Gators that their team hasn’t quit on Billy Napier yet. It would have been easy for Florida’s roster to pack it in after losing 3 straight games in September, but they didn’t. Napier — and the roster — deserve real credit for that.
But I’m skeptical Florida will be able to keep this going. Florida has been a better team at home than on the road in recent years. Since the start of the 2023 season, Florida has a per-game point differential of +9.4 in SEC home games. In road games, that number sinks to -8.4 against SEC competition. That’s a massive gap — much larger than the SEC average over that span. With a game against Texas A&M on deck in College Station, I think the Aggies will get it done this weekend.
Pick: Texas A&M -7.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Buying: The Big Ten is in trouble when it comes to CFP berths
The Big Ten got 4 teams into the College Football Playoff last season. This year, as few as 2 might be on the table. Ohio State and Oregon look like stone-cold locks to make the CFP — they’ve been dominant and have manageable schedules the rest of the way. But the rest of the conference? There’s a lot of uncertainty.
I would have thought Penn State was a lock for a berth before it lost to Penn State. The Nittany Lions likely aren’t going to make the cut at 9-3, so they’d have to win out — including at Ohio State later in the year — in order to earn a berth. Indiana has to play Oregon and Penn State on the road this year. The Hoosiers likely need to win at least one of those games and get to the Big Ten title game at 11-1 in order to earn a berth. Michigan, USC and Illinois could all theoretically make a run, but there are red flags with all 3 of those programs. None seem like a certainty. ESPN’s FPI only gives 3 Big Ten teams better than a 35% chance to reach the CFP.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
