Week 5 of the 2025 college football season is in the books.
As with every week, this piece will attempt to extract some value from the betting markets by breaking down some of the emerging narratives from the weekend and seeing if they match up with what the underlying data says. Last week, we covered Fernando Mendoza’s lack of a Heisman Trophy path, Ahmad Hardy’s excellence and Oklahoma’s red flags, among other topics.
10 predictions after Week 5
With that said, here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 5:
Selling: Florida State will be overmatched vs. Miami
Although the Noles will certainly be disappointed with the outcome on Friday night at Virginia, Florida State is still a dangerous team — particularly on the offensive side of the ball. FSU posted elite underlying metrics on offense in the loss to the Cavs as Thomas Castellanos remains one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC. FSU’s offensive success rate vs. the Cavs was in the 93rd percentile, per Game on Paper. Its EPA-per-play was in the 87th percentile.
Virginia was excellent offensively as well. And while that should give FSU some reason to be concerned, the box score suggests the Noles deserved better than the result they got in Charlottesville. Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Virginia had just a 35.1% postgame win expectancy against FSU. I think Florida State is just as live against Miami as it was a week ago and you might get to bet the Noles at a better price because of this result.
Pick: Florida State +5.5 (-110 on bet365)
Buying: CJ Carr is a top-5 quarterback in the country
This has little to do with his performance against an Arkansas defense that had clearly quit by the end of the first half — although another datapoint of that quality doesn’t hurt the case. So far this season, Carr has completed 68.3% of his passes for 1,091 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in just 4 games. His quarterback efficiency rating is over 181, which puts him into elite company in recent college football history. Since 2021, there have only been 4 quarterbacks (min. 300 attempts) to have a passer efficiency rating that high. One (Jayden Daniels) won the Heisman Trophy while 2 others (CJ Stroud and Bo Nix) became first-round picks.
The former blue-chip recruit has been that efficient despite playing all 4 of his games so far against Power 4 opposition. While it’s true that Arkansas and Purdue are far from defensive juggernauts, it’s worth noting Carr hasn’t had a game against an FCS opponent or even a lower-level G5 program to boost his stats. And he’s still been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country. I still have some questions about Notre Dame’s CFP hopes this season given its strength of schedule — which took a big hit with USC’s loss to Illinois on Saturday — and its defense, but the Irish are in good hands at quarterback. A 10-2 finish seems possible at this stage.
Selling: Alabama’s ceiling is higher after beating Georgia
Alabama deserves plenty of credit for its big win over Georgia in Week 5, but the data points toward a fortunate result for the Crimson Tide. ESPN’s postgame win expectancy formula gave the Tide just a 19% chance to win the game — the lowest total for any winner this week. Georgia out-gained Alabama by more than a yard per play, but the Tide was able to win the game thanks to a historic performance on third down.
Alabama went 13-of-19 on third down in the win. For context, there are only 28 teams with more than 13 third-down conversions all season vs. power-conference opponents. In 3 games vs. power-conference foes, Auburn has 8 third-down conversions. That’s it. Credit to Ty Simpson and others for getting it done over and over again, but that does seem a bit unsustainable to me. Alabama’s early-down success rate against the Bulldogs was just 32%, per Game on Paper. That’s not going to fly in the Playoff most likely. It’s not a red flag given that Alabama won the game on the road, but it’s certainly worth noting. I’m not significantly upgrading Alabama’s upside despite the impressive final result in Athens.
Buying: Trinidad Chambliss is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that Ole Miss had a quarterback controversy because of how well Trinidad Chambliss played vs. Arkansas. After leading the Rebels to a win over LSU, Chambliss isn’t just the unquestioned starter — he’s firmly in the mix for the Heisman Trophy. In just 3 starts, Chambliss has accounted for more than 1,000 passing yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s leading the SEC in yards per attempt with more than 10.
And that’s to say nothing of his contributions on the ground. Chambliss has also rushed 50 times for 266 yards and 2 more scores. For what it’s worth, the CFP era has not produced many quarterbacks with 10 yards per pass attempt who also rushed for more than 50 yards per game. Since 2014, that list includes 3 Heisman Trophy winners (Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota), 1 Heisman runner-up (Jalen Hurts) and Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral in 2020. If Chambliss keeps up this level of production, he’ll absolutely be in the conversation in November.
With that being said…
Selling: Ole Miss is a top-5 team
Even with Chambliss’s success, it’s hard to make the case that Ole Miss is a top-5 team based on 2025 alone. The Rebels will enter Week 6 sitting at No. 22 in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric. The biggest problem has been their rushing defense, which ranks 120th nationally in success rate.
There are other red flags, too. Ole Miss’s offense doesn’t appear to have a No. 1 receiver — Harrison Wallace’s sub-60% catch rate continues to be a problem. Kewan Lacy and Chambliss have both seemingly been excellent on the ground, but the Rebels still rank just 47th in EPA-per-rush.
At this point, I do think Ole Miss will make the College Football Playoff. The Rebels have 2 challenging road games left against Georgia and Oklahoma. Even if they drop both those contests, they should be able to take care of business the rest of the way against South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State to finish 10-2 (although the Egg Bowl could get tricky in Starkville this year). But at No. 4 in the AP Poll this week, I think the Rebels are probably a bit overrated going into the second half of the season.
Buying: Auburn should make a QB change
Quarterback play is often a reflection of the supporting cast — the play caller, the offensive line and the receiving corps, most notably. In Auburn’s case, the Tigers have an undeniably good play caller in Hugh Freeze, arguably the best set of receivers 1 through 3 in the SEC (with apologies to Tennessee) and an offensive line that is at least respectable.
And yet, Auburn’s offensive passing numbers are atrocious. We don’t even have to go into the advanced stats to show that, although there is plenty of supporting evidence for that case. Let’s just look at third-down conversions (or in Auburn’s case, a lack thereof). Against power-conference opponents this season, Jackson Arnold has attempted 17 passes on third down. He’s completed 11, but only 7 have gone for first downs and overall he’s averaging 3.47 yards per attempt.
The only SEC quarterbacks in Arnold’s neighborhood for completion rate, first-down rate and yards per play are Zach Calzada and DJ Lagway. Calzada has already lost his job (and has a much worse supporting cast than Arnold does). Lagway’s situation is much worse from a play-calling standpoint and his well-documented injury issues seem to be bothering him to start the year.
If Arnold isn’t going to run the ball like he did against Baylor, there’s really no reason for Auburn to continue trotting him out there. He only has 76 rushing yards (adjusted for sacks) in his 2 SEC starts after rushing for 151 (adjusted for sacks) against the Bears. The reality is Cam Coleman, Malcolm Simmons and Eric Singleton are open a lot and Arnold is finding them far too infrequently. He’s taking virtually no risks over the middle of the field — PFF has him down for just 20 “intermediate” passes so far this season, of which he has completed 10 for only 130 yards. Among qualified quarterbacks, he’s last in the SEC in yards per attempt on intermediate throws. Arnold also hasn’t even been soundly punished for his mistakes yet — PFF credits him with 5 turnover-worth plays so far this year despite having 0 interceptions. What if he starts turning the ball over, too?
Selling: Georgia Tech is a top-20 team
Georgia Tech escaped with a narrow win in overtime against Wake Forest on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are 5-0, and were only slightly punished in this week’s AP Top 25 as they moved back 1 spot to No. 17 overall. The reality is that ranking is still too generous. Per ESPN’s postgame win expectancy formula, no team has been more fortunate than Georgia Tech this season. PGWE suggests Georgia Tech should have 3.53 wins this season rather than the sterling 5-0 record it has in real life.
If you dig deeper into Georgia Tech’s profile, there’s not much here to be excited about besides Haynes King’s undeniable toughness. The Yellow Jackets were largely out-played by Clemson and Wake Forest — 2 ACC teams who might not make a bowl game (although I expect Clemson to recover in the near future). Georgia Tech ranks 43rd in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA metric. The key to its season has been winning 1-score games, which can lead to flukey results. Brent Key has specialized in winning 1-score contests. Overall, Georgia Tech is 19-12 since the start of the 2023 season — Key’s first full year in charge. That includes a 9-5 record in 1-score games. The Yellow Jackets are also 5-2 in games decided by 3 points or less. I think Georgia Tech is good — certainly a bowl team — but I don’t see a top-25 team or an ACC contender.
Buying: Oregon is undervalued as a national title threat
Oregon picked up arguably the biggest win of a massive weekend, beating Penn State on the road as a 3.5-point underdog. The Ducks took an inexperienced offense into Happy Valley and won. For a while, it looked like they would win handily. Penn State managed a comeback and forced overtime, but what Oregon was able to pull off was nothing short of the most impressive performance I’ve seen this year.
Per Game on Paper, Oregon had a 12% explosive play rate (elite) and a 43% success rate (well above-average) against the Nittany Lions. They also held Drew Allar and a historically explosive Andy Kotelnicki offense to just 4.6 yards per play. That’s Penn State’s worst yards-per-play output in a home game since November of 2023 when Michigan — who went on to win the national title — held Penn State to a paltry 4.03 yards per play.
It shouldn’t have taken me 3 paragraphs to mention Dante Moore, but here we are. Now the leader in Heisman Trophy betting odds, Moore may find his way into NFL Draft discussions for next April if he keeps this up for much longer. Moore has completed over 74% of his passes for 1,210 yards, 14 touchdowns and 1 interception in his first 5 starts for the Ducks. He may not find a tougher defense in a tougher environment than the one he faced in State College on Saturday night. Imagine what he’s going to look like by the time the Big Ten title game rolls around in early December.
The advanced metrics back all of this up, by the way. Oregon is up to No. 1 in ESPN’s FPI. The Ducks are No. 1 in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play. They’re also No. 1 in SP+ entering Week 6. Oregon should be the undisputed national championship favorite at this stage in the season, and the betting markets are just not treating it as such. There’s value on the Ducks here, but not for much longer.
Pick: Oregon +600 to win the national championship (via BetMGM)
Selling: Tennessee’s offense is explosive again
I was pretty low on Tennessee entering 2025, with or without Nico Iamaleava. The biggest reason why was simple — Josh Heupel’s offense hadn’t been explosive since Hendon Hooker was under center in 2022. The Vols ranked near the bottom of FBS in explosive play rate over the past 2 seasons.
Joey Aguilar has made some headlines for a few deep ball connections on passes that Iamaleava missed last year, but the truth is the Vols still aren’t very explosive. Tennessee’s offensive profile looks similar to how it always has — efficient on early downs and late downs, but it lacks the high-end explosiveness that usually comes with contender status. So far this season, Tennessee is in the 29th percentile in explosive play rate, per Game on Paper. More than half of the Vols’ schedule has been played against non-bowl teams like Syracuse and UAB (not to mention East Tennessee State) so that ranking is liable to go down long-term.
Tennessee made the CFP last season with an offense that struggled to create explosive plays, but the Vols had an elite defense last year. That doesn’t seem to be the case in 2025 — at least until cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson can get back. Tennessee is 100th nationally in pass defense success rate, per Game on Paper. At current College Football Playoff odds, I’d bet against a return trip to the CFP for the Vols.
Pick: Tennessee to miss the CFP (-300 on DraftKings)
Buying: The best bet to go undefeated is in the American
For all the talk of how it won’t be possible to go undefeated anymore, that may not apply to the American Athletic Conference. Bill Connelly released SP+’s projections for teams to go undefeated following Week 5.
Oregon leads the way at 25%, followed by Texas Tech at 24%. But if you’re scouring the betting markets, you’re not likely to find much value there if you take SP+’s projections at face value.
But in the American? Oh, it appears there’s some value to be had. SP+ gives Memphis a 22% chance to go undefeated during the regular season and has North Texas at 16%. Per FanDuel, Memphis is priced at +550 and North Texas is at +650 to accomplish that feat. Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season, so it’s possible they could both get there in 2025.
If you take SP+’s projections as gospel — and only if — then there’s positive expected value on both the Tigers and Mean Green to run the table and go 12-0. The higher expected value is on Memphis (about $43 on a $100 bet), so I’ll back the Tigers here.
Pick: Memphis to go undefeated during the regular season (+550 on FanDuel)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
