10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 9

Welcome to Week 10 of the college football season.

As we do every week in this piece, we’ll take a look at some of the emerging college football narratives and see if they can be backed up with advanced stats or other insights. Last week, we discussed Lane Kiffin’s future at Ole Miss and Texas’s struggles, among other topics.

10 ideas to buy or sell

Here are 10 college football ideas to buy or sell after Week 9:

Buying: LSU has more work to do before it can hire a head coach

LSU fired head coach Brian Kelly on Sunday night, bringing a quicker-than-expected conclusion to the slow-motion car crash that has been the Tigers’ 2025 season. LSU takes a back seat to no program when it comes to ranking college football jobs. This is a program where national championships are considered the bare minimum requirement. Kelly is the first LSU coach to leave Baton Rouge without a national title since Gerry DiNardo almost 30 years ago. 

But if LSU’s leadership — which apparently includes Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry — allows Scott Woodward to make the next hire, I have little confidence that LSU will break out of its current dry spell. Woodward has a long track record of hiring big-name coaches. Once upon a time he brought Chris Petersen to Washington. He hired a past-his-prime Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M and then, of course, lured Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame 4 years ago. This has happened in other sports, too, most notably when Woodward hired women’s basketball coach Kim Mulkey away from Baylor (which has worked out spectacularly, it should be said). 

Is hiring the biggest possible name the best approach for college football programs in 2025? Almost certainly not. If Woodward were on Wall Street, his hiring portfolio would be a classic example of buying high and selling low. Woodward’s history suggests he’d be interested in coaches like James Franklin or Dabo Swinney — leaders who have won a ton at other jobs but are likely on the back end of their primes. That’s what Petersen, Fisher and Kelly turned out to be.

Is this the AD you want making your next hire? If I were an LSU fan or booster, the answer would be an emphatic “no.”

Selling: Florida and LSU are competing for the same head coaches

With respect to Florida, I think LSU is going to have a different caliber of coach who is interested in its job than the Gators will. LSU is unequivocally a top-5 job in the country and is probably top-3 all things considered. I would expect virtually every coach in the country aside from a select few (Ryan Day and Kalen DeBoer come to mind) to be interested. Even Dan Lanning, who has vehemently denied any interest in ever leaving Oregon, may hear out an LSU opportunity. 

So I was surprised when I saw ESPN’s list of potential candidates on Sunday night included a lot of the same names that have been floated for Florida. That being Jon Sumrall, Eli Drinkwitz and Brent Key, to name a few. Again, with respect to those coaches who I think highly of, I think LSU really ought to be aiming even higher. The right coach could — and should — have this program competing for national championships within 2 years. Call Mike Elko. Call Marcus Freeman. Call Curt Cignetti. If they say no, call Lane Kiffin or Kenny Dillingham or Lincoln Riley. Call program-builders with real track records of winning who have the energy to build what is necessary in Baton Rouge. LSU is a tier-1 job and it should have access to a candidate pool that would not ordinarily be available in a typical hiring cycle. 

Buying: Oklahoma vs. Tennessee is a Playoff eliminator

This matchup between the Sooners and Vols is far from a play-in game, but the loser almost certainly has no chance to make the CFP this season. Both squads enter Saturday’s game at 6-2, so a 3rd loss would be difficult to overcome. Tennessee likely isn’t a Playoff team at 9-3 due to its strength-of-schedule. It’s more plausible the Sooners could earn a berth with 9 wins, but Oklahoma still has games remaining vs. Alabama, LSU and Mizzou as well. There’s very little chance they could run the table if they lose in Knoxville. 

Selling: Bobby Petrino should be a real candidate for the Arkansas job

Putting aside all of the obvious baggage that comes with Bobby Petrino in Fayetteville, interim coaches can’t lose games like he did on Saturday and expect to receive serious consideration. Arkansas was facing a previously-winless-in-conference-play Auburn team at home. The Razorbacks took a 21-10 lead into halftime and forced Freeze to make a QB change — and then lost. 

That’s unrecoverable for someone in Petrino’s position. This is not an ideal job coaching market for Arkansas to be looking for a candidate, but it can certainly do better than a 64-year-old Petrino who was unable to get the job done on Saturday. Intriguing options for Arkansas remain, led by SMU coach (and Arkansas alum) Rhett Lashlee. North Texas coach Eric Morris or South Florida coach Alex Golesh could be candidates, too.

Buying: North Carolina’s defense is competent

North Carolina still hasn’t won a conference game under Bill Belichick, but it seems to be making progress. Close losses to Cal and Virginia over the last couple weeks certainly represent a step in the right direction. Most of that momentum has come on the defensive side of the ball, particularly against the pass. The Tar Heels held both the Golden Bears and the Cavaliers to under 6 yards per pass attempt over the past couple of weeks. 

Do I buy UNC’s resurgence? Frankly, it depends on who it’s playing. Cal and Virginia both rank outside of the top-75 nationally in EPA-per-drop back this season, so the competition hasn’t been stiff. But this week, Carolina plays a Syracuse team that has really struggled to throw the ball with Rickie Collins. He has an ACC-worst 8 interceptions this year despite not beginning the year as the starter. He’s also only averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. So, for at least 1 week, against Syracuse in Week 10, I’ll be a buyer on Carolina’s defensive improvement. Belichick has earned that much trust over the past couple of games. 

Pick: North Carolina vs. Syracuse total under 46.5 (-110 on bet365)

Buying: Hugh Freeze can still save his job

Imagine telling someone a couple weeks ago that Brian Kelly would be fired before Hugh Freeze. They probably wouldn’t have believed you, given the circumstances. But that’s where we are on Oct. 27, just a couple days after Auburn’s first SEC win of the season and Kelly’s final defeat in Baton Rouge. 

Auburn fans may want to skip this next part: I think Freeze has a legitimate chance to save his job over the next few weeks. For one thing, it’s probably sub-optimal for Auburn to have a job opening in the same cycle as LSU, Florida, Penn State and possibly Florida State (and maybe more?). The hiring pool doesn’t appear to be anywhere near deep enough to support this many high-profile openings. 

But set that side for a moment. What if Freeze simply wins enough to keep his job? The Tigers are certainly capable of beating Kentucky and Mercer in November, and that gets Auburn to bowl eligibility. That just leaves Vanderbilt and Alabama. A win over Vandy is probably more manageable, but I wouldn’t rule out an upset over Alabama. The Crimson Tide will likely have an SEC Championship Game looming for the following week and they’ve been much worse on the road this season (and under Kalen DeBoer in general). 

Given the state of this job market and Auburn’s highly-competitive nature over the first half of the season, I would expect that 7 wins is enough for Freeze to save his job for at least one more season. That’s still a tall task — it would require at least one ranked win in November. But if this Auburn team didn’t quit on Freeze at halftime of the Arkansas game when it was down 21-10, I don’t think any quit is coming. This roster is absolutely talented enough to will Auburn to 7 wins and potentially another year with Freeze at the helm. I think Auburn carries this momentum into a blowout win over Kentucky this weekend. 

Pick: Auburn -10 over Kentucky (-110 on BetMGM)

Selling: Alabama has an elite offense

Alabama made it through the last 5 games unscathed, which is all that really matters in the end. The Crimson Tide were tasked with beating 4 ranked opponents and then had to get a win on the road at South Carolina before they could go on a bye week. Mission accomplished. But I do have some concerns about this offense. 

For one thing, Alabama still can’t run the ball at all whether or not Jam Miller is in the lineup. Offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor has a yards-per-carry average of 3.8 on 4 attempts, which is in the same neighborhood of what Miller, Daniel Hill and Kevin Riley have accomplished this season. No Alabama running back with any significant playing time has an individual success rate over 35%, per Game on Paper. That’s not good at all. 

Alabama’s passing game has remained pretty good over this stretch, although Ty Simpson hasn’t been quite as consistently productive. Overall, Alabama is averaging just 5.5 yards per play over its last 5 games. That will have to improve if Alabama is going to make noise in the College Football Playoff this year. 

Buying: Mizzou can still compete despite Beau Pribula’s injury

Mizzou has lost not 1, but 2 quarterbacks to serious leg injuries this season. Sam Horn got hurt in the opener and is out for the year. Beau Pribula’s injury reportedly isn’t as severe, but he’s likely to miss some time — and maybe the rest of the regular season — as he recovers. Enter true freshman Matt Zollers, who competed admirably in a loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday in Nashville. 

Here are the advanced metrics on Zollers’ performance, per PFF: 5.8 yards per attempt, 10.2 average depth of target, 12.5% pressure-to-sack ratio and a 3.3% turnover-worthy play rate. You know what — that’s not too bad, all things considered! Zollers was thrown into the lineup at a moment’s notice on the road against a top-10 Vanderbilt team and held his own as a true freshman. His numbers are actually better than what Pribula managed while he was in the game, almost across the board. Pribula really struggled to fit the ball into tight windows downfield all season for Mizzou. Zollers may have more of an ability to do so. That could be beneficial for the Tigers, even if they miss some of Pribula’s ability in the running game. We’ll have more data in a couple weeks, but as of now, I’m not treating this as a major downgrade for Mizzou at quarterback. 

Buying: Texas will be a tough mountain for Vanderbilt to climb

A few weeks ago, Texas laid an absolute egg against Florida and then woke up on Sunday morning as a favorite over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. I fell for the trap, thinking OU should be favored given what we’d seen from the Texas offense all season long. That bet was rightly punished as Texas proved to be the better team in the Cotton Bowl the next week. 

I think we’re seeing a similar pattern play out this week. Texas is coming off of an absolute miracle win over Mississippi State. Vanderbilt has earned back-to-back ranked (at the time) victories over LSU and Mizzou. And yet it’s the Longhorns who are favored by just under a field goal on Saturday in Austin. This time, I’m going to believe the betting markets. Texas may have figured out something on offense and I’d expect its defense to rebound against the ‘Dores at home. Arch Manning’s status will be of interest given that he reportedly suffered a concussion on Saturday, but I think Matthew Caldwell could lead Texas to a cover if called upon. 

Pick: Texas -2.5 (-115 on Caesars)

Buying: North Texas can make the CFP

Memphis beat South Florida this past weekend, which means the American is now a complete unknown. Navy is the last undefeated team in league play while other CFP contenders such as Memphis, USF, North Texas and Tulane all have 1 loss. The betting markets favor Tulane to make it out of this mess of a league. 

I would go a different direction. North Texas only has one game remaining against a top team in the American and it comes this weekend at home against Navy. Although the Midshipmen are undefeated, they’re underdogs this weekend. North Texas is -6.5 at most books as of this writing. I think UNT will win out and ultimately cruise to the conference title game. North Texas is ranked No. 32 in SP+ this week, making it the second-best Group-of-5 team behind Memphis. The reason I like the Mean Green over the Tigers mostly comes down to schedule. Memphis still has to play Navy and Tulane, making it somewhat less likely they’ll reach the title game. North Texas also has arguably the best quarterback in the league in Drew Mestemaker. 

Pick: North Texas to make the College Football Playoff (+400 on BetMGM)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.