Coaching legacies are defined by beating teams that are nationally recognized. Whether they admit it or not, taking down an Associated Press Top 25 team matters. Yes, taking down a Playoff Poll Top 25 team matters more, but then we’re pretending that one can’t acquire meaningful wins in the first 2 months of the season. That’s simply not true.
And yes, I believe Playoff résumés are defined more by how wins age as opposed to whether you beat a team that’s ranked at the time of the matchup. Georgia Tech beating No. 10 Florida State in the 2024 season opener aged like an avocado, which meant by November, nobody was talking about it as a quality win.
For the sake of today’s discussion, though, we’re gonna stick with wins against AP Top 25 teams at the time of the matchup. Specifically, we’re gonna stick with the biggest takeaways I had when digging into those numbers for active coaches.
Here are 10 noteworthy stats about active coaches against AP Top 25 teams (at the time of the matchup):
1. Lets start with how Kalen DeBoer has the best win percentage (.833) vs. AP Top 25 teams among active coaches (min. 15 games)
He’s 15-3 in those games. That number will inevitably drop off because even Nick Saban had a .733 win percentage in those games in the 21st century. And yes, the 3 losses to unranked teams didn’t sit well at a place that went 13 seasons (2008-20) without such a defeat. But DeBoer has been exceptional against quality foes, and the record doesn’t fall off at all against the top 10. In those games, he’s 6-1, which is also the best mark among active coaches (min. 5 games). If DeBoer can continue that clip at even a Kirby Smart rate in those games — he’s 21-10 (.677) vs. AP Top 10 teams — he’ll have Alabama competing for national titles in the post-Saban era.
2. At Penn State, James Franklin is 4-20 vs. AP Top 10 teams and 2-13 vs. AP Top 25 teams in true road games
I sound like a broken record bringing up Franklin’s record vs. AP Top 10 teams, but note that I’m actually being nice to him by just focusing on his time at Penn State and not bringing in the Vanderbilt numbers. While he certainly took over at a time when, as he’ll tell you, teams could still negatively recruit against Penn State’s looming NCAA sanctions from the Jerry Sandusky fallout, it’s been more than a decade on the job. He had that great Big Ten Championship season in 2016, but since then, his lone wins vs. AP Top 10 teams came against Utah in the Rose Bowl when Cam Rising got injured, and last year in the Playoff vs. Boise State. He lost his last 5 true road games vs. AP Top 25 teams, as well. If those numbers don’t turn around this year, Franklin will have a tough time being considered an elite coach.
3. In the 2020s, the late Mike Leach (7) has as many AP Top 25 wins as James Franklin and Brian Kelly
And not to be too somber here, but I only mention this stat because Leach died at the end of the 2022 season. In other words, he got 3 seasons at Mississippi State during the 2020s while Franklin got 5 at Penn State and Kelly got 2 at Notre Dame and 3 at LSU. Even more impressive, Leach only had 15 games vs. ranked foes to reach his 7 wins. Franklin, on the other hand, had 21 while Kelly had 18. That’ll likely turn around for Kelly and Franklin, but there’s a reason why there’s such skepticism about them as elite coaches.
4. Your top 10 active leaders in wins vs. AP Top 25 teams in the 2020s are …
- 1. Kirby Smart (Georgia), 23
- 2. Ryan Day (Ohio State), 17
- 3. Kalen DeBoer (Alabama), 15
- 4. Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame), 14
- 5. Steve Sarkisian (Texas), 12
- T6. Josh Heupel (Tennessee), 11
- T6. Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), 11
- T8. Dabo Swinney (Clemson), 10
- T8. Dan Lanning (Oregon), 10
- T10. Mark Stoops (Kentucky), 9
- T10. Kyle Whittingham (Utah), 9
- T10. Lincoln Riley, (USC) 9
A couple of things are worth noting there. One is that Freeman deserves a ton of credit for being so high on that list when he’s only had 3 seasons as a head coach. DeBoer has only had a Power Conference job for 3 of those seasons, and yet, he’s on the podium. I’d expect someone like Lanning, who also has just 3 seasons under his belt, to rise the deeper we get into the decade. How about the fact that Swinney has just 1 more win vs. ranked foes in the 2020s than Stoops, who is the longest tenured SEC coach, but is riding 3 consecutive disappointing seasons.
The safest bet on this list is that Smart will still be standing atop it when the 2020s conclude.
5. Matt Rhule is 0-11 vs. AP Top 10 teams and 2-22 vs. AP Top 25 teams
The only active FBS coaches with a worse winning percentage vs. AP Top 25 foes than Rhule (.083) are Barry Odom (.077), Mike Locksley (.069) and Clark Lea (.063). Sure, Rhule accumulated those stats at Temple, a rebuilding Baylor program that he turned around and his current job, Nebraska. The irony is that prior to Rhule’s arrival, Nebraska lost 21 consecutive games vs. ranked foes. Rhule added 6 more losses to that skid to drop it to 27 consecutive games without a win vs. an AP Top 25 team. Rhule is trying to deliver Nebraska its first win vs. an AP Top 25 team since Sept. 17, 2016 vs. Oregon, AKA the Barack Obama administration.
6. In the Playoff era, Lane Kiffin is 1-9 vs. AP Top 25 teams in true road games (and it was a win at No. 24 Tulane … who started a backup QB)
He’s arguably the best coach in program history, but Kiffin is 3-14 lifetime as a coach in true road games vs. AP Top 25 teams, which is basically the same as Will Muschamp (3-13). I wanted to focus on who he was as a coach post-tarmac. That 1-9 mark in the Playoff era (FAU and Ole Miss) is what’s separating him from being considered a Tier 1 coach. And sure, it’s only a 1-5 mark at Ole Miss, but nothing forces people to change how they feel about you like winning a road game against a contender. Kiffin didn’t necessarily check that box by winning at No. 24 Tulane, who didn’t even have starter Michael Pratt available for that 2023 matchup. Kiffin’s last true road win against a Power Conference team that was inside the AP Top 25 came all the way back in 2011 at No. 4 Oregon. Fourteen years removed from that victory, perhaps Kiffin can end that drought either at Georgia or the following week at Oklahoma.
7. Since the start of 2016, Hugh Freeze is 4-16 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Go back to the start of that 2016 season. Freeze led No. 11 Ole Miss in a headliner opening game against No. 4 Florida State. That team had legitimate Playoff hopes after beating Alabama in consecutive years in what was easily the program’s best 2-year stretch in decades. Nobody could’ve predicted how things would end for Freeze at Ole Miss, nor could they have envisioned the decade that followed. Since he left Oxford, he’s 2-12 vs. ranked foes, though many will point out that he did that at Liberty and post-Bryan Harsin Auburn. Sooner or later, that can’t be the excuse. Once upon a time, Freeze had a 2-year stretch at Ole Miss (2014-15) in which he was 8-4 against ranked foes. He might be running out of time to show he’s still capable of generating big-time wins like he once did.
8. During his time at South Carolina (2021-present), Shane Beamer (7) has just 1 fewer AP Top 25 win than Dabo Swinney (8)
I bring this up because nobody in their right mind would’ve believed you if you told them Beamer would accomplish that when he arrived at South Carolina after a disastrous end to the Muschamp era. It’s wild to think that Beamer has 7 ranked wins in that stretch compared to 8 for Swinney, and through 4 years, he’s 2-2 in the Palmetto Bowl having won in both trips to Death Valley. Clemson entered the decade positioned to win national titles while South Carolina was supposed to be the team that peaked under Steve Spurrier. Quickly, that’s become a much more balanced annual fight.
9. In the Playoff era, Dan Mullen ranks 4th among active FBS coaches with 8 wins vs. AP Top 10 teams
I’ll be honest. I don’t know what to do with this number, but I had to include it after Mullen spent the last 3 years away from coaching. And no, not all of those wins vs. top 10 teams came in 2014 with Dak Prescott playing out of his mind for Mississippi State (3 of them did). Mullen’s last victory vs. an AP Top 10 team came in the 2020 Cocktail Party against Georgia. I can’t imagine UNLV will get a whole lot of opportunities to take down AP Top 10 teams, but somewhere on Mullen’s résumé should be a bullet point that reads “the only active FBS coaches with more wins vs. AP Top 10 teams than Mullen in the Playoff era are Kirby Smart (21), Ryan Day (16) and Dabo Swinney (14).”
Speaking of the leader of that list …
10. In 1 fewer season, Kirby Smart tied Nick Saban with 21 wins vs. AP Top 10 teams in the Playoff era
I’m already on record saying that Smart going 1-5 against Saban in his career ended the possibility that he could catch the G.O.A.T., so don’t misconstrue this stat. It is, however, worth noting that Smart has been so remarkable in those headliner games. Smart had 9 seasons as a head coach in the Playoff era (2016-24) while Saban had 10 (2014-23), which makes that feat all the more impressive. We’re talking about comparing Smart to someone who coached in 6 national title games during that era and is widely considered the best big-game coach that college sports has ever known. We might be able to rule out the notion that Smart is ever truly better than his former boss, but he absolutely deserves respect when he accomplishes feats that are in the same breath as the G.O.A.T.
And a bonus stat: The only active FBS coaches who have won at least half of their games vs. AP Top 25 teams (min. 15 games) are …
… Kelly (.500), Riley (.543), Swinney (.588), Lanning (.625), Smart (.698), Freeman (.700), Day (.719) and DeBoer (.833).
That’s just 8 active FBS coaches who don’t have losing records vs. AP Top 25 teams. That’s a noteworthy stat to close with because it’s an extremely difficult thing to do, and most of these noteworthy stats reflect that. If you’re winning half of your games against ranked foes, you’re probably considered an elite coach in this sport.
If you’re winning half of your true road games against ranked foes, you might have a statue on the way. By the way, if you make it a minimum of 8 true road games vs. ranked opponents (I basically just cut the requirement in half), the only active FBS head coaches who won at least half of those games are Riley (.500), Smart (.538), Day (.625) and DeBoer (.750).
Let’s see what those numbers look like again at the end of the 2020s.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
