10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 11 in the SEC

Win some, lose some.

That was my reaction to Tuesday’s initial set of Playoff rankings, well aware that last year, 3 teams in the initial top 11 didn’t make the Playoff — and 2 teams ranked outside that initial top 20 did.

So, just like a team that got hosed by a bad call (too many to list), shake it off and move on.

Kind of like what Auburn did last week with Hugh Freeze. Like what Dabo Swinney needs to do at Clemson. Like what Texas A&M needs to do in the polls … and Florida needs to do on this season (and maybe with DJ Lagway). And, most of all, what the SEC absolutely must do from this ridiculous suggestion that the Playoff would be better without automatic bids. Move as far away from that idea as fast as possible. Please.

Those are among the 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 11 in and around the SEC.

10. Texas A&M deserves to be No. 1

It doesn’t matter who’s No. 1 and probably won’t matter until we get to the Playoff semifinals, but if the Playoff Selection Committee truly is living in the moment and starting anew each week, there’s zero debate about which contender was the most impressive in Week 11.

The Aggies improved to 3-0 against ranked teams with an emphatic beatdown at No. 19 Mizzou — and all 3 of those wins were on the road.

Nobody else in the country has a resume even remotely close to that. No. 1 Ohio State is 2-0 vs. ranked teams — but only 1-0 on the road. Ditto No. 2 Indiana, which was fortunate to survive Week 11 unscathed.

The Aggies again were without Le’Veon Moss, and it didn’t matter. Backup-turned-emerging-threat Rueben Owens ripped off a 100-yard game and scored twice, once on a 57-yard sprint through the heart of Mizzou’s line. Marcel Reed did Marcel Reed things (221 yards passing and 2 TDs, just enough rushing to keep safeties peeking). KC Concepcion continues to pad his case as the SEC’s MVT: Most Valuable Transfer.

At minimum, Texas A&M deserves to move up to No. 2 in Sunday’s AP Poll — and in Tuesday’s Round 2 of the Playoff rankings. They haven’t been No. 2 in the AP Poll since 1975. They haven’t been No. 1 since 1957 with Bear Bryant. They haven’t finished No. 1 since 1939.

This team has the pieces to write its own history.

I don’t need to convince Mike Elko.

“I think they know what they want, and we got great leadership,” Elko told reporters. “We got great players out here and we are going to go finish things the right way.”

9. 11 weeks in, and I still have no idea how good Alabama is

I was hoping the LSU game would trigger confidence — one way or another.

Instead, I found myself wavering, more convinced than ever that Alabama and Georgia are the same team.

One week, they look unbeatable. The next week, fortunate to win. Other weeks, good enough to go through the motions and win.

I keep reminding myself that college football is all-in on the Parity/Portal Era … the gap between good and great has never been closer, and to expect Dynasty performances each week is fruitless.

I still believe Ty Simpson is the most capable SEC QB to pull off the SEC Triple Crown of Heisman/SEC title/national championship … but that doesn’t mean I trust Simpson and the Tide to actually get it done. He’s a better quarterback than Marcel Reed, but give me the Aggies all day if they ever meet.

In fact, I trust Simpson more than I trust his teammates. Bama’s running game is non-existent — a sentence never written in the Saban era. They entered the LSU game ranked 14th in the SEC at 118.8 rushing yards per game. Just 9 rushing touchdowns in 8 games.

Alabama ran for 56 yards against LSU. Save the Derrick Henry jokes; Jalen Hurts would outrush this Tide team. When it needed to run to eat clock Saturday, the Tide turned to a trick pass play to convert 4th-and-3.

That can’t bode well for what lies ahead.

8. Making sense of the B1G scramble

It was a tough week for the Big Ten.

It didn’t start that way, of course. The Playoff Selection committee wedged 4 Big Ten teams into the final 6 teams it ranked. Why? Saying 7 Big Ten teams were ranked sounds a lot better than the 5 it should have had. No SEC bias here, boys!

I’m not falling for it.

I’ve said since Week 3 that the Big Ten only deserves 3 Playoff teams and the rest of the league stinks. The first Playoff ranking, however, set up the opportunity for late-season quality wins over “ranked” teams to create a narrative for 4 teams.

About that … No. 20 Iowa (which shouldn’t have been ranked) suffered its 3rd loss of the season. No. 23 Washington (which shouldn’t have been ranked) suffered its 3rd loss of the season, this one to woeful Wisconsin. No. 21 Michigan was idle.

But the B1G is top-heavy, remember?

OK. No. 1 Ohio State looked good in dominating Purdue. Jeremiah Smith showed why he’s a Heisman contender and my pick to win the award.

No. 2 Indiana got pushed around but ultimately responded against a Penn State squad that fired its coach and now has lost 6 consecutive games. Credit the Hoosiers’ resiliency, however. They are the Big Ten’s version of Vandy.

No. 9 Oregon is lucky to still be in the Playoff race, needing a last-minute field goal to knock off Iowa. The Ducks scored just 1 touchdown. Ultimately, I think Oregon loses again, probably to USC.

Is it possible that the B1G only gets 2 teams in the Playoff?

7. Notre Dame is the ultimate Playoff X-factor

I was only interested in 1 team’s Playoff ranking Tuesday: Notre Dame’s.

The Irish control the math. If they make the Playoff, it’s going to be all but impossible for the SEC to get 5 teams, no matter how deserving that 5th team might be.

The committee slotted the Irish at No. 10. Not good for SEC purists.

The Irish started 0-2 — both losses to top-20 teams, by a combined total of 4 points.

Now? They just whipped Playoff-hopeful Navy (yes, I realize how crazy that sounds; welcome to 2025) in Week 11 for their 7th consecutive victory. All 7, by the way, by double digits. That includes a 10-point, Week 8 victory against ranked and sudden-Playoff hopeful USC.

The Irish are rolling into a must-win showdown at ranked Pitt in Week 12.

The Irish can’t lose again and make the Playoff, but they probably won’t lose again. That’s terrible news for SEC bubble teams.

6. In 2025, the SEC will break the record for most coaches fired

The record for coaching changes is 5 — set after the 2017 season. That deserves an asterisk, however, because Dan Mullen voluntarily left Mississippi State to go to Florida, which fired Jim McElwain.

So only 4 SEC coaches were actually fired.

Four SEC coaches already have been fired this season. That matches the record for most firings in 1 season, set in 2017, then matched 2019 and 2020 when Nick Saban was getting everybody fired. (We’re not counting 2012, which also had 4 changes, because John L. Smith wasn’t fired; he was Arkansas’ interim coach and subsequently replaced.)

So, who are the next to go? In Week 6 — in response to Arkansas firing Sam Pittman and pouring fuel onto Firing SZN — I named the next 5 Power Conference coaches to go. Because ADs are such avid readers of Overreactions and take everything written here as gospel, 3 already are gone: Billy Napier, James Franklin and Freeze. Dave Doeren and Mark Stoops are hanging on.

Focusing on the SEC and its never-ending quest to live up to its “just means more” moniker, here’s the updated Hot Seat list after Week 11 as the league closes in on the record. I’ll be shocked if either coach is back in 2026.

1. Shane Beamer, South Carolina: I should have included him in the initial list. We all make mistakes. Kind of like Beamer’s choices in offensive coordinators.

2. (Still) Stoops: The $37 million buyout is ridiculous, but so are empty seats and growing negativity. Negotiate a settlement and let him walk away knowing he built Kentucky football to the point where Wildcats fans couldn’t wait to fire the winningest coach in program history. (Celebrate his 5th victory over Florida — before Stoops, Bear Bryant was the only Kentucky coach to accomplish that feat — and the fact that if he leaves this year, he’ll leave with a winning record. That was in danger had he not beaten Florida again. Nobody wants to be on the list of teams whose winningest coach had a losing record, right Indiana?)

5. Predicting the SEC’s 5 Playoff teams after Week 11

I’ll play along. The Playoff committee put 6 SEC teams in the top 12 and had 7 in the top 16. I’ve made the case for weeks that the SEC deserves 5 Playoff bids, but will probably get 4 because I’m not convinced the politics will allow for a 3-loss SEC team to make the final field over, say, a 10-2 Notre Dame squad or a 10-2 ACC/Big 12 runner-up.

No matter. Here are the 5 SEC teams that deserve to make the Playoff after Week 11 (and only after Week 11):

1. Texas A&M: I’ve had the Aggies as the SEC’s best team for weeks. Others are just now catching on. Grab a seat in the back.

2. Ole Miss: Make fun of a cupcake win all you want. Just don’t tell me how impressed you were that Oregon rallied to knock off Iowa in the last second of a field-goal fest or that Indiana rallied to beat a now 3-6/0-5 Penn State squad in the final minute. (Now, Omar Cooper Jr.’s game-winning TD catch? Absolutely. That was the most impressive play I’ve seen all year.)

3. Alabama: Alabama owns the series with Texas A&M, but history don’t make plays, Pawwwwl!

4. Georgia: The Dawgs finally unleashed their ground game. They ran for a season-high 303 yards — after averaging 170.3 in 6 previous SEC games. And, yes, it came against a Mississippi State defense that ranked No. 15 in rushing defense — but nobody ran on them like Georgia did. The Dawgs are at their best when Gunner Stockton gets to manage the game instead of being required to win it.

5. Vanderbilt: Call me stubborn for not selecting Texas over Vandy when Texas has the head-to-head win, but I love a great story. Vanderbilt’s rise is the SEC’s Story of the Year. Down again in the 2nd half Saturday, the ‘Dores rallied again, this time all the way back to knock off Auburn. I know that doesn’t sound terribly impressive — unless you watched it unfold. Diego Pavia threw for 377 yards and 3 TDs — and added another 112 yards rushing and a TD. That’s almost 500 yards of total offense and 4 TDs. That’s Manziel-level wizardry from college football’s Most Valuable Player.

4. Ranking the SEC-led Interim teams

The interim coaches went 0-3 with a bye in Week 11. Bygones.

Great news! Even in a terrible season, somebody’s about to be crowned No. 1!

1. Auburn (DJ Durkin): Who knew the only thing holding back Auburn’s offense was alleged offensive guru Hugh Freeze? The Tigers scoring an SEC-best 38 points in their first game without Freeze — on the road against a ranked Vandy team with Playoff hopes — tells you everything you need to know about Freeze as a play-caller in 2025. The Iron Bowl just got a whole lot more interesting. Now, about that defense … Durkin, weren’t you the defensive coordinator?

2. LSU (Frank Wilson): Alabama could have beaten LSU 83-0 instead of 20-9 Saturday and it wouldn’t change this ranking. However, I’m not a fan of benching Garrett Nussmeier. Want to give Michael Van Buren an occasional series? Fine. But don’t pin this mess on Nuss.

3. Florida (Billy Gonzales): Chin up, Gators. Mark Stoops claimed his 4th victory in 5 years against the Gators — against 3 different coaches. If Stoops could play Florida every game, he’d be the Curt Cignetti of the SEC. As for Gonzales, has an interim ever been fired? If so, did he get a buyout, too? Benching DJ Lagway was certainly a choice — even if, in the moment, after 3 INTs, it was the correct one.

4. Arkansas (Bobby Petrino): Arkansas was idle in Week 11 but is 0-4 with Petrino. Maybe it wasn’t all Sam Pittman‘s fault?

3. 3 teams in the initial top 11 that won’t make the Playoff

One year isn’t a large sample size in terms of precedent, but it’s all we have in relation to the 12-team Playoff.

Last year, 3 teams in the initial top 11 Playoff rankings didn’t make the Playoff.

This year, these 3 teams won’t, either.

No. 7 BYU: The Selection Committee ranked BYU ahead of No. 8 Texas Tech. Whatever. I’ve had Texas Tech winning the Big 12 all season. Saturday’s 29-7 beatdown over BYU merely confirmed I should chair the committee. I still think the Big 12 deserves 2 Playoff bids, but I don’t think BYU is the second-best team in the league.

No. 9 Oregon: The Ducks already have 1 loss and were fortunate to squeak out a win at Iowa on Saturday. That wasn’t a Playoff statement. That was a warning alarm. We should have seen this coming after Oregon barely survived at Penn State. Oregon still has to play USC and at rival Washington. If Oregon finishes 11-1, the Ducks are in. If they finish 10-2, with their best win being against … Penn State or Washington? We’ll find out exactly how much the committee values strength of schedule.

No. 11 Texas: The Longhorns already have 2 losses and travel to No. 5 Georgia in Week 12 before hosting No. 3 Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. They are far more likely to get swept than sweep — and they must sweep to stay in the Playoff race.

P.S.: No. 10 Notre Dame joins this list if they lose, but as noted, I think they run the table to finish 10-2.

2. Fastest way to destroy the Playoff? Eliminate automatic bids

Mississippi State President and Playoff board chairman Mark Keenum took a stance this week that should terrify college football fans across the country.

He said the SEC favors a system that eliminates automatic bids.

“I’m not a big fan of automatic qualifiers,” Keenum told Paul Finebaum. “I think the best teams ought to play in our nation’s national tournament to determine who our national champion in college football is going to be and not have automatic bids. That’s the position of the Southeastern Conference — presidents and chancellors, our commissioner, and probably most of the conferences that are part of the CFP.”

Are you kidding me?

Last year, for the first and only time in this sport’s history, college football finally crowned a legitimate national champion. Everybody in the country opened fall practice in 2024 with a path to the Playoff — including every Group of 5 hopeful. Boise State made it. Unheralded power conference schools had a chance, too. Arizona State, unranked most of the season, overcame early setbacks to win the Big 12 and make it. Indiana got in over Alabama. Heck, for the first time, every power conference champion made it. Which means, for the first time in history, those conference championship games actually did mean more.

And you want to blow up that system, the one that made it happen?

What?

We know why: Keenum said only the best teams should make the Playoff. What he means is: The SEC is the best conference in the country, produces the most NFL players and should have 6 or 7 teams in the Playoff every year.

Here’s the rub: Every other sport, D-I to professional, gives everybody a path to their tournament. Professional leagues have divisions — and every division champ makes the playoffs, sometimes with a record that’s worse than teams in other divisions that didn’t make the playoffs.

The NCAA Tournament has been the model event. It provided the blueprint for how to crown a champion — and it only gained that status after it expanded and gave automatic bids to smaller conferences. Gonzaga never becomes Gonzaga without automatic bids. UMBC never upsets No. 1-seed Virginia without an automatic bid into the tournament.

If Keenum ran college basketball, we never would have witnessed Jimmy V and the Cardiac Pack. Or Steph. Or Sister Jean. Automatic bids created so much more than One Shining Moment; they made the NCAA Tournament everything it has become.

Automatic bids set up college football for its most meaningful regular season and best postseason ever — knowing it will only get better. Expand to 16 — but keep the automatic bids.

If eliminating automatic bids is truly what the SEC wants, maybe it is time for the conference to just break away and conduct its own tournament.

1. If it’s not Dabo, please, Auburn, hire Jon Gruden

The noise is growing louder that Dabo Swinney is interested in Auburn. It makes sense on a lot of levels, right down to the mascot. The fact that Swinney played at Alabama gives a runaway narrative even more fuel.

Acknowledged and curious.

But the “Grumors” also are back — and I’m here for it.

Jon Gruden’s energy. Auburn’s fan base.

Enough electricity to power The Plains and fuel a run to the top of the SEC.

Do it, already.

It won’t end well, but it never does. Getting there, though, will be more fun than Auburn fans have had since Alabama decided to attempt that 57-yard field goal.