10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 13 in the SEC
By Chris Wright
Published:
It’s Lane Kiffin‘s world, and we’re all just fortunate enough to live in it.
Ole Miss didn’t even play this week, and The Lane Train still dominated national headlines.
Is he staying? (He should.) Is he going? If he is going, where is he going?
TBD, but Ole Miss certainly is going to the Playoff. Just like Notre Dame and, sorry, Paul, the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. Diego Pavia better be going to New York as a Heisman finalist.
The clock struck midnight, however, for “Arch sucks” takes, Stephen A. Smith’s SEC credibility and Alabama’s ground game, which, when not playing an FCS opponent, hasn’t been this bad since … 1955?
Those are just some of the 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Cupcake Week Week 13 in and around the SEC.
10. Assessing Lane Kiffin’s options
LSU reportedly has offered Lane Kiffin a 7-year, $90 million deal, with an annual salary of $13 million. Florida and Ole Miss reportedly have matched the annual offer and robust NIL investment.
To be honest, I’ve been more amused by the frantic, daily arm’s race than interested in who has the edge.
Why? At the risk of repeating myself, I think it’s a moot point. I can’t understand why Kiffin would leave everything he has built at Ole Miss, where every goal he could possibly entertain anywhere else already exists in Oxford.
If this were 2021, done deal. It’s not.
We are in the NIL/Portal/Parity Era. Coaches and players no longer need to go to a handful of programs to chase a championship. LSU probably will win another natty, with or without Kiffin, but it will never have another team as great as the 2019 team. That’s just the new and improved reality of college football.
There’s also the reputational risk of Kiffin leaving Ole Miss in the middle of a historic Playoff push, abandoning the place that allowed him to seemingly find peace, plant roots and start building a legacy that doesn’t begin with being fired on a tarmac.
For those reasons and others, I’ve written and still believe that Kiffin is better off staying at Ole Miss, where his name could soon be on the turf at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
I don’t think there’s any chance Kiffin goes to Florida, where he’d never escape Steve Spurrier’s shadow and would have to win 3 national championships just to upstage Urban Meyer.
It’s more difficult to ignore LSU’s history and stranglehold on Louisiana’s best recruits — but it’s also impossible to ignore LSU’s current state of instability and penchant for firing coaches.
If Kiffin goes — again, he shouldn’t, and I’ll only believe it when I see it — it will be to LSU. If that happens, he better win a national title by Year 3 … or else.
9. Finebaum was absolutely right to call out Stephen A. Smith
In case you missed it, Stephen A. Smith believes Kiffin is gone and Ole Miss fans need to get over it. He said it’s easier to win national titles at LSU and Florida than Ole Miss. It used to be, sure, but not anymore.
Regardless of where you stand on that side issue, this is where Smith went off the rails:
In explaining to Paul Finebaum and others on ESPN why Kiffin will leave for LSU or Florida, Smith said this: “I’m going to bring it home, all right. He’s in Oxford, Mississippi, OK? Let’s get this out the way. Listen, ladies and gentlemen, you all can’t say it. Don’t you dare say it Paul, don’t you say it Doggie (Chris Russo), don’t you say it Shae (Cornette). Leave it to me, I’ll say it. The brothers ain’t trying to come to Oxford, Mississippi for the most part compared to Gainesville or Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Let’s just call it what it is, OK?”
Finebaum didn’t react in the moment, but he later addressed Smith’s characterization of Oxford on his show.
“I realize a lot of you did not see what Stephen A. said, but he clearly made it racial,” Finebaum told his audience. “He clearly said, in his words, ‘the brothers do not want to go to Oxford, Mississippi,’ which has been proven to be completely incorrect. I’ve been to Oxford a million times and I think it’s terribly unfair to bring up echoes of yesteryear, the ’60s, and try to portray Oxford as that type of place today. It’s not. The South has changed. You can make your own interpretation, but to dump on Oxford while saying Gainesville and Baton Rouge would be utopia was just baffling to me.”
National commentator Tim Brando also admonished Smith, writing on X that “his words were divisive, despicable and given his pedestal a true reflection of how the self proclaimed World Wide Leader views Mississippi and the South in general. I’ve respected Stephen A’s work ethic and intelligence and have stated such many times over. Words matter and his this morning were reprehensible and will never be forgotten.”
Brando has a daughter who went to Ole Miss and started his career at ESPN.
Media beefs frequently are ego-driven, occasionally staged and rarely matter. (See: Whitlock vs. Stephen A.)
This was different.
Two media heavyweights rightfully calling out arguably the biggest name in sports talk for feeding stereotypes was a meaningful moment. Last week, Smith was among the many (myself included) who called out the Texas state trooper who bumped into 2 South Carolina players. Smith said the Trooper should be suspended and never work another game.
Too bad ESPN stayed silent after Smith’s harmful commentary about Ole Miss.
8. … however, this Playoff take was horrible, Paaawwwl!
It is absolutely incredible how fast the Playoff discussion has jumped the shark.
Fifteen years ago, I was on an island actually wanting a Playoff. As soon as it arrived, I began pleading for expansion while others broke out their bullhorn over concerns that we’d never find 4 quality teams! Now we’re at 12, with everybody in America having a shot … and the noise is growing louder every day about the intruder who crashed the Haves’ party.
This week, Finebaum, a friend of SDS, by the way, blasted the new system that “lets the Group of Whatever in” and “that division really has no business playing” in the Playoff. (He specifically called out the USF and the American Conference as unworthy, perhaps forgetting that USF beat Florida, Memphis beat Arkansas, North Texas beat Washington State, and Tulane beat Northwestern and Duke … this season.)
That’s his opinion. That’s fine.
Finebaum also said: “That’s like letting the Triple-A’s best team into the major league playoffs. It doesn’t happen in any other sport.”
That’s a fact error.
Finebaum knows that literally every other major sport, pro and college, has a path for underdogs to fight for the national championship.
The NCAA Tournament, the single greatest tournament in sports and the blueprint for how other playoffs are conducted, awards automatic bids to 31 conference champions — 31! More than 80% of those automatic bids go to smaller conference champions that, using Finebaum’s football logic, have no business being there?
That’s nonsense. Underdogs staging stunning upsets helped turn the NCAA Tournament into March Madness.
Finebaum specifically mentioned Major League Baseball and NFL as examples of leagues that only put the best teams in the playoff. Are you sure?
In 2025, 3 wild-card teams had a better record than 2 division winners. Does Finebaum believe that the AL Central and AL West champs shouldn’t have made the playoffs?
Last year in the NFL, 4 wild-card teams had a better record than 3 of the 6 division winners. Should those 3 division winners have stayed home?
Last year in the NBA, 5 teams with a losing record qualified for the playoffs.
I could go on, but you get the point. Those sports give everybody the same opportunity to make the postseason. Finebaum knows that. It’s his job to stir the pot. Again, fine.
College football finally has it right. The only way to improve this system is to add to it and expand to 16, not suddenly revoke access to Group of 5 conferences that have forever been on the outside looking in — as if reserving 1 spot out of 12 for an underdog is the worst thing in this sport’s history.
7. Save your Cupcake Week jokes, a’ight?
Was I impressed with Texas A&M’s 48-0 victory over FCS Samford?
You know I wasn’t.
Was it utterly unnecessary for Alabama to play (and subsequently beat the paw prints off) the FCS Eastern Illinois Panthers on Saturday?
You know it was.
But save your faux outrage, B1G Nation.
Last year, 2 Big Ten teams played Eastern Illinois.
This year, Indiana played FCS Indiana State, Ohio State played FCS Grambling, and Oregon played FCS Montana State. They just did it earlier.
If it’s OK for the B1G, it’s OK for the SEC — no matter how loud the B1G talking heads scream into your TV.
P.S.: That rugged B1G Week 13 schedule? Ohio State rested its 2 best receivers — including Heisman contender Jeremiah Smith — because it knew it didn’t need either to rip Rutgers.
6. No, I’m not mad about Alabama’s Playoff ranking
Have you replaced the big screen you broke after the Playoff committee dropped Alabama from No. 4 to No. 10 — behind 2-loss Notre Dame?
I understand being a fan, but I don’t get the outrage in this instance. Not after that Oklahoma game in Week 12, anyway.
Change Alabama’s team colors, peel off the iconic numbers and slap a logo on the helmets.
Now watch that team actually play. Or, rather, watch that team try to run the football.
The Tide can’t. Not against real competition, anyway.
Sure, they ran for 269 yards and 8 TDs against FCS Eastern Illinois, a glorified scrimmage that was less physical than the typical A-Day Game.
Against real competition, however, the Tide are more 1-dimensional this season — and especially in their previous 3 SEC games — than they ever were under Nick Saban. Even when Saban’s dynasty was at its run-the-ball best, its passing game was reliable and potent enough to consistently contribute. Even when Saban switched gears and went all-in on airing it out, the running game never teetered on the edge of irrelevancy quite like this.
Entering Week 13, Bama’s passing game was averaging 186.0 more yards per game than the rushing game. That’s the 2nd-largest yardage gap since Saban arrived — just behind the pass-happy 2021 group led by Heisman winner Bryce Young. But even that team featured a 1,300-yard rusher in Brian Robinson Jr.
Number can lie, sure. The yardage gap isn’t critical if both sides are producing; see 2021. That’s not happening in 2025. Jamarion Miller enters Week 14 with a team-high 410 yards, all but guaranteeing the Tide will fail to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the 4th consecutive season — and 2nd consecutive under Kalen DeBoer.
Forget the 7 Bama teams under Saban that averaged north of 200 rushing yards per game. Every Bama team this century has averaged at least a modest 120 rushing yards per game. The last Bama team that failed to crack 110 rushing yards per game? The 0-10 1955 Tide.
The Tide haven’t topped 150 yards rushing yet this season against a Power conference team. They didn’t gain 100 in their previous 3 SEC games. They ran for 87 and 80 yards, respectively, in losses to FSU and Oklahoma — which, not surprisingly, were Ty Simpson’s 2 worst games of the season.
Translation: If Simpson doesn’t play like a Heisman Trophy winner every time out, the Tide are in serious trouble and look far more like a questionable bubble team than a Playoff lock fighting for a first-round bye.
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but Notre Dame would beat Alabama.
5. 5 ‘locks’ that might not even make their league title game
The greatest rivalry in college sports is Narrative vs. Results.
Entering the final week of the regular season, we still don’t know who is going to play in the most critical leagues’ championship game.
That’s exactly how the NFL draws it up.
It’s still possible that Week 13 league leaders Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech and Tulane don’t even make their league title game. Likely? Not in each case, but possible. (MRed has a fun tool to break down scenarios.)
Want chaos? The ACC has it, but it no longer owns exclusive rights.
Georgia Tech could have wrapped up an ACC title game spot in Week 13, but Pitt blasted the Yellow Jackets — and now the Yellow Jackets need help to reach the ACC title game. Suddenly, Miami is back in the picture, but only if, among other things, it beats Pitt AND Virginia Tech upsets Virginia in Week 14.
The Big Ten? Ohio State has been a wire-to-wire No. 1 and has the best odds to win the national title, but if the Buckeyes lose at Michigan next week — more than possible — they would then need help to reach the B1G title game. (Granted, OSU’s lose-and-still-make-it scenarios start with Indiana losing to Purdue, which isn’t happening … but the possibility exists.)
The Big 12? Texas Tech has led the race from the start, but if the Red Raiders lose to West Virginia, they’ll need help to reach the title game.
The SEC? There were so many title-game scenarios heading into Week 13, the SEC didn’t even address it beyond saying nobody can clinch or be eliminated. Week 14 will provide all of the answers. The most interesting possibility? If Texas A&M loses to Texas, the Aggies suddenly need upsets in the Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl to make it to Atlanta for the first time.
The American? There are at least 4 teams still in contention to reach its championship game. Tulane is in the driver’s seat, but nothing is set. This race is particularly interesting because, most likely, it will produce the Group of 5 automatic bid. Any chaos here brings presumed Southern Conference champion James Madison into the picture. If that happens, there will be no silencing the noise about eliminating automatic bids for conference champions.
4. Predicting the SEC’s 4 Playoff teams
The SEC’s math problem came into full focus in Week 13.
With 5 teams ranked in the top 10 of the Playoff rankings, of course the league has a case to get 5 teams in the Playoff. I’ve made that case all season while also noting the math — and politics — won’t allow it.
Let’s break it down.
There are 7 at-large Playoff bids.
Playoff No. 9 Notre Dame delivered the most impressive performance of Week 13, blowing out Syracuse as Jeremiyah Love added to his Heisman campaign with 171 yards and 3 TDs — against an ACC team, not an FCS team. The Irish are a Playoff lock assuming they handle Stanford in Week 14.
That leaves 6 at-large bids.
The B1G will grab 2 of those — the title game loser and Oregon, which handled USC in Week 13. That leaves 4 bids — and that’s not even considering what happens if Michigan beats Ohio State (again) to finish 10-2.
Miami is poised to pass lucky Week 13 winner Utah in the rankings and grab 1.
See the problem? That pretty straight-forward scenario leaves 3 at-large bids remaining — and that’s assuming the Big 12 only gets its automatic qualifier.
I’ll let y’all debate the resumes.
After Week 13, these 4 SEC teams are headed to the Playoff:
Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Georgia and … a fierce fight between Alabama or Oklahoma.
I’m giving the nod to Oklahoma, not only because the Sooners beat the Tide but also because Alabama’s season-opening loss to FSU might be the worst among Playoff contenders.
3. Six … Sevens? Have yourself a day, Arch
“Peyton never did that.” That was my immediate reaction after Arch Manning made the best play of his young career, on the greatest day of his young career, Saturday against Arkansas.
As a receiver.
Manning, showing athleticism that neither of his famous uncles possessed, adjusted his feet to a high pass on a trick play, flipped his hips and feet, jumped and came down with a TD, all part of Texas’ easy romp over the Hogs. We’ve seen 5-star receivers drop passes like that.
Manning’s best play was merely the highlight of his best day. In addition to the TD catch, he threw for 389 yards and 4 TDs and also rushed for a TD. (Yes, teenagers, Manning accounted for 6 … 7s.)
In doing so, he became the first player in Texas football history to throw for a TD, run for a TD and catch a pass for a TD.
He has now topped 300 yards passing in 4 consecutive games — all against SEC defenses.
The preseason Heisman hype was ridiculous. So, too, were the overreactions that he’s a bust.
He’s absolutely going to be a problem in 2026.
2. Diego Pavia, SEC Offensive Player of the Year
How fitting, on Senior Day, Heisman hopeful Diego Pavia delivered the single greatest offensive game in the history of Vanderbilt football.
Pavia was nearly perfect, completing 33-of-39 passes.
He set Vandy’s single-game record with 484 passing yards.
He tied Vandy’s single-game record with 5 TD passes … and ran for another. (So, like Manning, Pavia accounted for, all together, 6 … 7s. Promise, I’ll never write that again.)
Next week, he’ll become just the 4th Vandy QB to pass for 3,000 yards. Barring injury, he’ll break Kurt Page’s record of 3,178 yards, too. With 26 TD passes, he’s already tied Kyle Shurmur’s single-season record and is on pace to become the first Vandy QB to throw for 30+ TD passes in a season.
Along the way, he has led Vandy to the precipice of its first 10-win season.
Words are fine, but give the man the hardware he deserves: SEC Offensive Player of the Year.
Heisman? I still like Jeremiah Smith and Jeremiyah Love as the best players in America, but there’s no denying Pavia is the Most Valuable Player in the country.
1. Dear Shane, it’s a little early for Talkin’ SZN
I realize Shane Beamer has nothing left to play for — and now, not even a sentimental landing spot for his next gig — but this was a bit much.
“I do know next year at this time, we’re going to be sitting here on this Tuesday night, watching the Playoff rankings to see where we are in ranking show,” Beamer told reporters.
Know? There’s overreacting — and then there’s just wishful thinking.
Forget making it all the way to the National Championship Game on Jan. 19. Can we at least get through the SEC Championship Game before Talkin’ SZN begins?
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
