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What a week in the SEC.
Mammoth road wins.
Record scoring droughts.
Big-time buckets. (Yes, I’m still talking about Wade Taylor IV making this shot.)
Did we mention the top 3 teams in the sport all come from the SEC?
10 SEC basketball overreactions
Here’s a fresh batch of 10 things I’m overreacting as this season’s best college basketball conference heads down the backstretch.
1. The AP Poll voters got it right keeping Auburn No. 1
Auburn’s 90-81 loss to Florida on Saturday threatened to knock the Tigers off their perch as the nation’s top-ranked team in the AP Poll.
Instead, reasonableness prevailed, and Auburn remained No. 1 despite the loss to a great Gators team (more on Florida below).
That’s where Auburn belongs. The Tigers have 13 — yes, 13 — Quad 1 wins, which is 5 — yes, 5 — more than any other team in the sport. With 16 wins in Quad 1 and 2, Auburn has assembled the best résumé in the Field of 68 era, at least through mid-February. Auburn is also ranked no worse than No. 3 in any major computer metric (1st at KenPom, 2nd at Bart Torvik, 3rd at Evan Miya).
The Tigers will almost certainly be the No. 1 overall seed when the selection committee issues their annual 16 team seed list on Saturday before tip-off in Tuscaloosa, and that’s warranted. Auburn’s only 2 losses are to teams ranked in the top 4 at KenPom, it has more quality wins than anyone, and feature the frontrunner for National Player of the Year. They deserved to be No. 1 entering Saturday’s tilt with No. 2 Alabama.
That’s no knock on the Crimson Tide, either, who are ranked No. 1 in the Coaches Poll already, have won 14 of 15 games, are playing much better defensively, and will rightly earn the top spot with a win at home on Saturday afternoon. It’s just a reflection of current résumé and computer metric realities.
Regardless of who you rank No. 1, Saturday’s Iron Bowl of Basketball, Part I, will be …
2. The biggest regular-season game in … SEC history?
Am I overreacting? Here are some facts:
It’s the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in SEC history. It’s the first 1 vs. 2 contest ESPN College GameDay has visited anywhere since 2008. The cheapest get-in ticket is $392.00 on resell markets. It’s also just the 4th matchup between No. 1 and 2 teams from the same state. Two of the others are UNC-Duke — the greatest rivalry in the sport. The other? Memphis and Tennessee, when the Vols were led by …. you guessed it, Bruce Pearl.
Nate Oats said last week that his team has “bigger goals than beating Auburn.” That’s true. Just don’t tell anyone in Coleman Coliseum that come Saturday afternoon.
3. Team of the Week: Florida Gators
Do you know where you are? You’re in The Jungle, Baby!!
Usually, Axl Rose’s clarion call is a bad thing for Auburn opponents, who rarely walk out of Neville Arena in the Bruce Pearl era with a victory.
Last Saturday, Florida flipped the script.
The Gators fell behind 15-5 but rallied for a convincing 90-81 win over No. 1 Auburn in The Jungle that made Florida just the 5th team in the AP era to defeat a No. 1 team at home and on the road in the same season. Florida already scored a 30-point win over then-No. 1 Tennessee in early January.
The Gators did it with dazzling shotmaking and spectacular defense.
Florida’s bigs, led by roommates Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, were sensational at Neville, frustrating Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell and forcing Auburn away from the flex-offense bread and butter that have made the Tigers one of the most prolific offensive teams in the KenPom era. Condon in particular was special, often defending Broome in single coverage and rarely allowing Broome to get to the right shoulder and his preferred left hand. Broome finished with a double-double (18 points, 11 rebounds), but needed 19 shots and was clearly outplayed by Condon (17 points, 10 rebounds, 7-of-10 FGs), who set the tone for the Gators with his physicality inside.
“Credit Florida. They were better than us. They were more physical. They guarded us. They bothered us defensively and took us out of what we wanted to do,” Pearl said after the loss.
Perhaps no play better embodied Florida’s superior physicality and drive more than this play by Haugh, who simply outwilled Chad Baker-Mazara for a late rebound to set up a dagger triple from Denzel Aberdeen.
Haugh was even better in Florida’s 81-68 demolition of Mississippi State on Tuesday night. The sophomore scored 16 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, dished out 8 assists, blocked 2 shots, and collected 2 steals in the Florida win. If that stat line sounds preposterous, it’s because it is—according to Florida’s terrific Assistant AD Denver Parler, Haugh is the first SEC player to post 15+ points, 8+ rebounds, 8+ assists and multiple blocks and steals since John Wall in 2010.
“A nice little road trip for the Gators,” was Todd Golden’s understatement of the season.
Did we mention Florida did it without Alijah Martin, a Jerry West Award finalist (nation’s best shooting guard) and 1 of the top 10 players in the SEC, per KenPom?
Did we mention Florida dominated State despite Martin being out again and Condon getting injured 30 seconds into the game?
What a week from Florida, which is absolutely national championship good — as long as it gets healthy by March.
4. Is it time to discuss 4 potential 1 seeds for the SEC?
As of Thursday morning, the SEC has 3 of the projected 4 No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, per Joe Lunardi of ESPN. Auburn is the top overall seed, Alabama is seeded 2nd, and Florida has clawed its way onto the 1 line. The NCAA Selection Committee’s 16-team seed list should also list 3 SEC No. 1 seeds on Saturday, with the Gators likely ahead of Tennessee by virtue of their win over Auburn, which is the best résumé win in the country this season.
That’s where it gets truly interesting, though.
Texas A&M and Tennessee are currently projected as 2 seeds.
Both have résumé opportunities ahead of them, including a head-to-head game in College Station on Feb. 22. The Aggies also play Florida (away, on March 1) and Auburn (at home, on March 4). If Florida or Alabama stumble down the stretch, the Aggies could displace either on the 1 line. If Duke stumbles, though, then what?
Quality wins by Tennessee and Texas A&M in the next 3 weeks could allow either team to join their 3 SEC brethren on the 1 line come Selection Sunday.
The national backlash will be outlandish, but there’s a not entirely small chance the SEC receives 4 1 seeds when the NCAA Tournament field is announced next month.
5. And 6 Final Four contenders, including resilient Kentucky
One of the computer models used by SEC coaches is Evan Miya, who offers a host of lineup data, offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, and predictive information that help dissect the good teams from the great ones. One of his most interesting data snapshots is the “Efficiency Landscape,” which plots teams on a grid to evaluate their national championship potential. The past 9 national champions have all come from Evan Miya’s “title favorite” group, which currently includes 3 SEC teams: Auburn, Florida and Alabama.
The map also charts teams with Final Four potential, adding Tennessee and Texas A&M to the final weekend mix.
While Kentucky isn’t on Miya’s list, it’s difficult for me to rule out a Final Four run for Mark Pope’s team. After all, the Cats have a pile of monstrous wins that tell the story of a team that can beat anyone, anywhere, defeating Duke, Florida, Texas A&M, and now Tennessee twice. That’s 5 wins over squads ranked in the top 15 in KenPom. Say what you will about Kentucky defensively — and they’ll certainly need Lamont Butler to be healthy to guard the way you need to guard to win 4 straight games in March — but there’s something to be said for a team that knows how to win. Kentucky thrives in close games, and they continue to find players to step up.
Take Tuesday night’s win over the No. 5 Vols.
Butler left the game, leaving Kentucky without their 3 best ball handlers in Butler, Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson.
Enter lightly recruited 3-star Trent Noah. You know, the kind of “Kentucky basketball forever” kid John Calipari passed on but Mark Pope, mindful of what it means to wear blue, gave a chance.
Noah dropped 11 off the bench, drilling 3 of his 4 triples, in Kentucky’s win at Rupp.
Tennessee has to be tired of seeing Mountain Mamba, who made 2 massive shots in Kentucky’s win in Knoxville, too.
But these are the types of players and performances that define great teams. And credit the excellent coaches in this league who get these players in position to succeed when their moment arrives.
6. Sixth Man of the Year Award debate heats up
Awards season is going to be a nightmare for those of us filling out ballots.
How do you decide on 5 players for your All-SEC team in a league that could send more than 5 teams to the Sweet 16?
How do you choose a Coach of the Year in a league where a legitimate argument could be made for 7 coaches?
But the hardest award may be 6th man of the year.
First, the 5 biggest contenders: Aden Holloway at Alabama, Tahaad Pettiford at Auburn, Thomas Haugh at Florida, Caleb Grill at Missouri, and Solomon Washington at Texas A&M.
Pettiford is Auburn’s most explosive player off the bench and by far Pettiford’s best scoring guard. Pettiford also has a knack for the big moment, especially as a freshman. Pettiford scored 8 huge points in Auburn’s 53-51 rock fight win over Tennessee. He exploded for 24 points in Auburn’s 2-point, Johni Broome-less win at Georgia, and poured in 15 points in a 3-point win at Colonial Life over South Carolina last month. For Auburn to be its best, it needs Pettiford to score. That’s why he shoots on 25% of the possessions he’s on the floor.
Holloway is vital to Alabama because the Crimson Tide, while electric offensively, don’t shoot the ball as well as the previous 2 seasons. Alabama’s best shooter by miles is Holloway, who is shooting 42% from deep on high volume (133 attempts despite playing just 54% of Alabama’s available minutes). Alabama’s prolific at getting into the paint and scoring at the rim, so they are taking less 3s this year than any season in the Oats era. Normally, that might make teams change how they guard — but with Holloway’s range and accuracy, you simply must respect Alabama’s ability to go nuclear beyond the arc.
Considering his schematic impact on the Crimson Tide, it’s hard to find a player more important off the bench than Aden is to Alabama, but there are 2 other 6th Man of the Year candidates arguably as vital offensively.
Caleb Grill is shooting 49% from beyond the arc this season, a number that ranks 8th nationally. Grill ranks 5th in league play at 47%, and his 3-point barrages against Florida (6), Ole Miss (5) and Miss State (6) keyed all 3 of Mizzou’s best wins in SEC play. In other words, to win big games, Missouri must have Grill.
Unlike Holloway, who is not a high-level defender by any metric, Grill also is outstanding at guarding the ball, and he’s collected 2 or more steals in 5 of Missouri’s SEC games. Grill would edge out Pettiford and Holloway, to me, for this reason, though his overall offensive impact is not as great as Holloway’s.
Washington does a little bit of everything for the top-10 Aggies. Washington missed 2 SEC games due to injury, but he’s scored in double figures in 7 of the 9 league games in which he’s appeared, including Tuesday night’s comeback win over Georgia, when he poured in 17 off the bench, including 2 vital second-half 3-pointers. Washington is also an excellent rebounder, getting 12% of A&M’s misses back on the offensive glass when on the floor and ranking in the top 25 in the SEC in defensive rebounding percentage. Throw in his ability to block shots and wall up in the paint, and you have a complete player with a strong case to win the award.
The “Computers’ Favorite” is Florida’s Haugh.
That makes sense coming off a week where Haugh averaged 16 points, 9 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2 blocks per game in road wins over Auburn and Miss State. In SEC play, Haugh rates in the top 20 in the league in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. He also ranks top 50 in the country in offensive rating, 1 of only 5 SEC players with that distinction, per KenPom. According to Evan Miya’s Bayesian Performance Rating analysis, which measures the value a player adds to his team offensively and defensively, Haugh grades out as the 3rd-best player in the SEC and 7th-best player in the country. That’s not just Sixth Man of the Year good. That’s First Team All-SEC good. Not bad for a 3-star recruit with 1 SEC offer.
7. Hero Baller of the Week: Wade Taylor IV (Texas A&M)
Wade Taylor IV has been making stupendous shots like the one he made to beat Missouri for 4 years, so I’m not sure why anything he does surprises me at this point.
The man Buzz Williams simply calls “IV” is one of the best guards in America at getting into the paint when he wants, and he has myriad ways to beat you once he gets there. IV can finish through contact, get to the free throw line at a high clip (3.6 fouls drawn per 40), and his assist rate of 24.4% in SEC play makes it 3 consecutive seasons that he’s ranked top 10 in SEC play in that category, per KenPom.
Texas A&M doesn’t make as many shots as fellow SEC contenders Auburn, Alabama and Florida, but it’s worth noting that despite ranking just 285th in America in effective field goal percentage, the Aggies have lost just 1 SEC game when IV has suited up.
Taylor IV might be the most indispensable player in the league, which makes sense when you see him make a shot like he did to beat an outstanding Missouri team on Saturday afternoon.
8. Where I eat on a basketball weekend in … Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Archibald’s and Dreamland are beloved barbeque joints for a reason. If you want succulent ribs (order by the pound or slab), you aren’t going wrong at either location. But for me, there’s no place like Chuck’s Fish, where Charles Morgan III decided to buck the notion you have to be in Mobile or southern Alabama to get quality seafood. Everything served at Chuck’s is locally sourced, with the seafood all sent daily from Harbor Docks in Destin, guaranteeing freshness. The Gulf Fish of the Day won’t disappoint — I recommend it hickory-grilled, with the gouda grit cake.
9. The SEC’s record-breaking 12 NCAA Tournament teams will be:
Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Georgia.
10. SEC Awards, mid-February edition:
Best 6:
Johni Broome (Auburn)
Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida)
Mark Sears (Alabama)
Zakai Zeigler (Tennessee)
Wade Taylor IV (Texas A&M)
Malik Dia (Ole Miss)
Player of the Year: Broome
Defensive Player of the Year: Jahmai Mashack (Tennessee)
Freshman of the Year: Tre Johnson (Texas)
Coach of the Year: Todd Golden (Florida)
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
