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11 ridiculous predictions for 2016 SEC season … and 3 that came true
By John Crist
Published:
When coverage of the 2016 season officially began at Media Days in July, the SEC community put its collective heads together for another round of preseason predictions.
Both from a team perspective and with regard to individual players, narratives are unavoidable at these types of events. Such-and-such program will contend in the East, while such-and-such program will disappoint in the West. So-and-so safety is primed for a breakout performance, while so-and-so quarterback is destined to be benched.
Here are 11 of the more notable predictions that came out of Hoover. None were outlandish, but it appears that only three of them came to fruition.
Younger Allen may be better than older Allen
Just like Mississippi State had to do with Dak Prescott, Arkansas had to replace a wildly productive quarterback in Brandon Allen.
Despite the fact that junior Austin Allen, Brandon’s little brother, had never thrown a pass that mattered for Arkansas, he has made a case for being perhaps the best QB in the SEC. Brandon’s passer efficiency rating as a junior in 2014 was a respectable 129.2. Even with some struggles recently, Austin’s is currently 144.1.
In addition to the raw numbers, Allen has played with a poise and toughness that’s tough to teach. He’s clearly the son of a coach.
Verdict: TRUE
Tennessee’s running game might be special
The Volunteers were second in the conference last year in rushing offense, plus the primary skill-position talent all returned in 2016.
Nevertheless, UT is only eighth in the league running the ball. The offensive line has been a sieve most of the season. Jalen Hurd didn’t look right from Day 1, plus the Vols dug themselves so many early holes that the run repeatedly had to be abandoned. The team’s ground assault is down 36.1 yards per game as a result.
Only now, after Hurd quit on his teammates, have tailbacks Alvin Kamara and John Kelly and quarterback Joshua Dobbs begun to run it effectively.
Verdict: FALSE
Garrett looking to get 20 sacks this season
Arguably the best pass rusher in the nation and the potential No. 1 pick in this spring’s NFL Draft, big numbers were expected from Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett (below).
When asked about his personal goals for the upcoming campaign over the summer, Garrett himself suggested that 20 sacks wasn’t out of the question. However, due to injuries and even a bit of ineffectiveness here and there, he only has 4.0 sacks in eight games. Even when he has played, he’s been limited due to health factors.
This is not a Jadeveon Clowney situation. Garrett hasn’t been mailing in his performance. It’s still been a disappointment, though.
Verdict: FALSE
Missouri’s defensive line among nation’s best
With the likes of Terry Beckner Jr. inside and the combination of Charles Harris and Walter Brady outside, Mizzou was supposedly stacked up front.
Unfortunately, Brady — as well as little-used backup Harold Brantley — was dismissed from the team on the eve of fall camp because of academic failings. While first-year coach Barry Odom has refused to make excuses, the sudden lack of depth took a toll in the trenches. The Tigers are 13th in the SEC in rushing defense.
Harris has done his part with 8.0 sacks, although the rest of the roster only has 13.0 combined. Missouri is tied for seventh in the conference in that category.
Verdict: FALSE
JF3 set to be another Marshall on The Plains
In the three-man battle to be Auburn’s starting signal caller, John Franklin III got most of the hype due to his dual-threat abilities.
Because the Tigers were so electric offensively with Nick Marshall at the controls in 2013-14, the hope was that Franklin could be a similar player. Quite simply, he isn’t. Even if he’s proven to be quite elusive as a runner, he’s such a poor passer that he never really threatened to take the job and keep it.
With Sean White sidelined for Saturday’s matchup against Alabama A&M, coach Gus Malzahn is actually giving the start to the much-maligned Jeremy Johnson, not Franklin.
Verdict: FALSE
Cunningham the best player you don’t know yet
As a sophomore this past season, linebacker Zach Cunningham did it all for a Vanderbilt defense that was beginning to improve.
Even after being recognized as an All-SEC performer a year ago, Cunningham wasn’t a household name in conference circles. That’s no longer the case, as the junior leads the league with 104 tackles and is second with 15.5 tackles for loss. Be it stopping the run or defending the pass, there’s nothing he can’t do.
Alabama pass rusher Jonathan Allen is probably the favorite, but Cunningham should get some votes for Defensive Player of the Year.
Verdict: TRUE
Several qualified candidates for Biletnikoff
In 2015, there were four 1,000-yard receivers in the SEC. Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, Texas A&M’s Christian Kirk and Mississippi State’s Fred Ross returned for 2016, too.
All of them were asked to break in new quarterbacks this season, and their production has taken a toll in kind. Neither Ridley, Kirk nor Ross is on pace to get anywhere near 1,000 yards. Ridley has been overshadowed by ArDarius Stewart. Kirk is averaging a fullback-like 10.3 yards per catch. Ross has battled the dropsies.
The Biletnikoff Award is given annually to America’s best receiver. Not only did the league fail to produce a finalist, it didn’t even have a semi-finalist.
Verdict: FALSE
Kelly to throw for 4,000 yards a second time
In the storied history of this conference, no quarterback has ever thrown for beyond 4,000 yards more than once.
Chad Kelly (above) of Ole Miss did it in 2015, racking up 4,042 yards in 13 games — that’s an average of 310.9 yards per contest. While he was on a similar pace (306.4) this season, he tore up his knee in Week 10 and ended his Rebels career prematurely. Even if he were still healthy, he probably would have come up short of 4,000 again.
It didn’t take long for Kelly to become yesterday’s news in Oxford. After Shea Patterson’s debut in Week 11, he’s now the Big Man on Campus.
Verdict: FALSE
East division will eventually catch up with West
In order for the SEC to be all it can be and potentially get two teams into the College Football Playoff, then the divisions can’t be so imbalanced.
There was reason to think the East could better compete with the West this season. Tennessee had everything lined up in its favor. Florida was now in its second year under coach Jim McElwain. With Kirby Smart going from defensive coordinator at Alabama to head coach at Georgia, there was fresh excitement between the hedges.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The West has dominated the East once again. If anything, the gap has widened.
Verdict: FALSE
Fournette a clear frontrunner for Heisman
A generational talent at running back, LSU’s Leonard Fournette was being mentioned in the same breath as living legends Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson.
As good a bet as any player in America to win the Heisman Trophy, Fournette won’t get invited to the award presentation in New York — just like he wasn’t last year. Battling a nagging ankle injury most of the schedule, he simply hasn’t been the same outside of his record-breaking 284-yard night against Ole Miss.
The only chance he had to get back into the race was to exact some revenge on Alabama. Instead, the Crimson Tide bottled him up a third straight time.
Verdict: FALSE
Alabama has separated itself from rest of SEC
Even after winning a fourth national championship in seven seasons a year ago, there is reason to believe that ‘Bama is better than ever in 2016.
True freshman Jalen Hurts has exceeded all expectations and is the difference maker coach Nick Saban has never had before at the game’s most important position. The defense is still suffocating, despite losing a handful of standouts to the NFL. The Tide have won six of their seven SEC games by double digits, with only Ole Miss keeping it close.
Saban and Co. wrapped up the West two weeks before Thanksgiving. The East can do little more than offer up a sacrificial lamb in Atlanta.
Verdict: TRUE
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
John Crist is an award-winning contributor to Saturday Down South.
