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2024 Chaos Scenarios, No. 2: The chaotic teams that could win a national title
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The following is part of a 10-part series, wherein I (Connor O’Gara) outline 10 chaos scenarios for the 2024 college football season. These are not predictions. These are, however, things that could happen that would create a significant ripple effect in the sport.
What is chaos, you ask? Last year, Texas beating Alabama caused chaos because it was the preamble for Texas’ return to the national spotlight while the Tide had “sky is falling” energy that prompted a QB change and a discussion about Nick Saban’s future. Saban’s retirement was also chaos because it prompted 4 FBS coaching vacancies, as well as raises for coaches who were reportedly targeted as his successor.
Chaos can come in non-Saban ways, too. Florida State getting left out of the Playoff as a 13-0 team was chaos, as was Deion Sanders beating defending national title runner-up TCU in his Colorado debut. Chaos can come in a variety of forms.
On Thursday, we outlined 2024 Chaos Scenario No. 1 — What if Ohio State fires Ryan Day? Today is the second installment of the 10-part series for 2024 …
I hate to start off so negatively, but it needs to be said. Few teams actually have a chance to win a national title.
Wait a minute. Isn’t this the start of the 12-team Playoff era? Doesn’t that mean that we’re about to see a more inclusive national championship race?
Perhaps, but let’s not forget that to win a national championship, that means a team will likely need to win at least 15 games. You still need a wealth of depth and talent.
Michigan was the first and only team in the 4-team Playoff era who won a national title without a roster that was ranked in the top 10 of the 247sports team talent composite. Michigan’s semifinal win against Alabama marked the first time since the 247sports team talent composite began that we saw a team outside the top 10 (No. 14 Michigan) beat a team inside the top 10 (No. 1 Alabama). Washington (No. 26) then followed that by beating Texas (No. 6) in the other semifinal matchup.
I’d argue Michigan, which had 2 previous Playoff appearances and ranked in the top 5 in percentage of returning production, was the exception to the rule.
What am I saying? Only a handful of teams truly have national championship potential. That’s why there are only a few teams worth discussing as “chaotic teams who could win a national title.”
Yeah, Joe Moorhead leading Akron to a national title would be chaotic. That’s not worth digging into, especially in a sport that had 1 Group of 5 team reach the 4-team Playoff (2021 Cincinnati) and it was a multi-score loss to Alabama.
On the flip side, Georgia winning a national title wouldn’t cause chaos. It would be extremely impressive and worth talking about as Kirby Smart tries to become the third coach in the past 70 years to win 3 titles in a 4-year stretch (Saban and Tom Osborne are the other 2), but that’s not chaos.
Texas winning a title isn’t necessarily chaotic, either. That’s a testament to Steve Sarkisian. A team that’s No. 3 in the preseason odds wouldn’t shake things up by winning it all. Perhaps it would cause an instant power shift upon their SEC entry, but the ripple effect isn’t as significant as others.
I’d argue the same is true of programs like Oregon and LSU, both of whom have promising teams led by respected coaches entering Year 3. It would be a huge deal internally if the Ducks won their first title and if Brian Kelly won his first title, but I’m not sure the byproduct of runs like that would create chaos within the sport.
Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
So who could cause chaos by winning it all? The teams who just replaced their head coaches like Alabama and Michigan.
If the Tide win it all, sure, some might want to say “it was just Saban’s team,” while others will point out that Alabama endured the 30-day transfer portal window after the greatest coach of all time stepped down. Alabama winning a national title in Year 1 of the Kalen DeBoer era would make plenty of folks in the SEC and outside of it realize how far away from a title they still are.
Can you imagine being an Auburn or LSU fan and seeing 2024 play out like that? Shoot, what if DeBoer beats Georgia multiple times en route to a title? To quote Austin Powers, “why won’t you die?” That would be the feeling, which would cause plenty of chaos for programs at the top of the sport.
You could apply that same logic to Michigan. Sherrone Moore repeating is even less likely than when UGA lost 15 players to the NFL Draft after winning its first title in 4 decades. UGA had Kirby Smart and its returning starting quarterback along with young, but talented weapons galore. Michigan doesn’t have any of those things. That scenario would cause chaos because there’s no world in which that can happen while Day keeps his job. That was chaos scenario No. 1 in this series because of all the dominos that could fall with that vacancy.
But I won’t hold my breath on a 25-to-1 Michigan squad being the last one standing again.
Chaos would be Ole Miss winning a title. Like, the program which has never even reached the SEC Championship since it became a thing 3 decades ago. If Lane Kiffin wins a title, the internet will never be the same. You think Kiffin has some swag about him now? I can’t begin to imagine the amount of trolling/flexing/chirping he would do if he led Ole Miss to its first national title since the John F. Kennedy administration.
Let’s also remember the aforementioned stat about top-10 talent teams winning titles. I’m assuming that an Ole Miss team that ranked No. 23 in talent composite isn’t about to leap into the top 10. That could mark a second consecutive season of a team without top-10 talent winning a title.
Ole Miss sits at No. 9 in the preseason odds, so it’s not that far off. A team that ranks No. 22 in percentage of returning production could be set up for a deep run. If that happens, Kiffin could provide new life for the non-traditional powers while also showing that spending big in the portal could be the new way of the world.
Alternatively, chaos could ensue if the completely opposite portal approach results in a title. Clemson winning a title would be chaos. What a time to be alive. It might not tell the world “bail on using the transfer portal entirely,” but could there be some market correction? You bet.
If Dabo Swinney stands atop the college football world for the first time since 2018, what does that say about the state of the ACC? As in, the conference that hasn’t won a Playoff game since the 2019 season. Does it say that perhaps the ongoing legal battle over the Grant of Rights is overblown from a competition standpoint and the ACC can compete in this new era of college football with a widening TV revenue disadvantage? In a strange way, that would actually help the ACC and hurt Florida State’s case. That’s chaotic in itself.
To recap, Clemson, Alabama, Michigan, and Ole Miss are the prime candidates for chaos teams who could win a national title. Others could provide some chaos if they make a run to a title, but their odds are beyond 30-to-1. Discussing them realistically isn’t worth our time. One of those teams, however, will be the subject of our next chaos scenario.
You’re next, Lincoln Riley.
Chaos scenario No. 3 will continue tomorrow. To spoil all 10 chaos scenarios for yourself, watch the full breakdown, as discussed on The Saturday Down South Podcast.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
