The 2025 college football season is well past its midway point, making this a great time to evaluate the futures market for any potential bets.
This piece will seek to identify 3 futures bets that have positive expected value for bettors. We’ll also include the best-in-market price for each potential bet from a variety of the best sports betting apps.
College football futures bets
Here are 3 futures bets to consider before Week 9:
Ty Simpson to win the Heisman Trophy
Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza have separated from the pack in terms of Heisman Trophy betting odds entering Week 9. Mendoza’s best price comes from BetMGM at +325 while Simpson is at +350 on DraftKings. I vastly prefer Simpson to Mendoza in the Heisman Trophy race.
Simpson has put up comparable numbers to Mendoza against a much tougher group of opponents. Simpson is 10th in passer efficiency rating nationally and has already played (and beaten) 4 ranked teams this year. Mendoza, meanwhile, has only played 2 ranked teams and the Hoosiers likely won’t face another ranked opponent until the Big Ten Championship Game. Alabama still has games remaining against LSU and Oklahoma before facing yet another ranked opponent in the SEC Championship Game, should it get there.
So while Mendoza’s raw numbers are marginally better (1,755 yards, 21 touchdowns and 2 interceptions compared to 1,913 yards, 18 touchdowns and 1 interception), I think Simpson will have the narrative on his side when ballots are due after conference championship weekend. Mendoza deserves a lot of credit, but he’s putting up similar numbers to what Kurtis Rourke did last year and Rourke never received any Heisman consideration. Simpson has completely transformed Alabama’s offense from what it was a year ago with Jalen Milroe under center.
Other top candidates include Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia. Sayin is likely to split some portion of votes with his own teammate, receiver Jeremiah Smith. He’s also not going to have many more chances to have statement performances this season. Pavia probably has the best narrative case of anyone, but it looks like a hard case to justify statistically. He’s 50th in total passing yards entering Week 9.
Pick: Ty Simpson to win the Heisman Trophy (+350 on DraftKings)
Ole Miss to miss the College Football Playoff
Ole Miss’s profile took a hit this past week with its road loss to Georgia, but I think there’s still very good prices available on the Rebels to miss the CFP. Ole Miss is still perceived as a top-tier SEC team despite a résumé that’s increasingly underwhelming. Narrow wins over Arkansas, Kentucky and Washington State should all be viewed as significant red flags. Ole Miss also showed a total inability to stop Georgia this past weekend. The Bulldogs, who enter Week 9 ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted EPA on offense, scored points on every single drive until their last, which ended in victory formation.
The Ole Miss offense appears to be really good, but not bordering on elite. Trinidad Chambliss is averaging a respectable 8 yards per attempt over his last 3 starts. That’s down considerably from the 11.1 yards per attempt he averaged over his first 2 starts in wins over Arkansas and Tulane.
Ole Miss is a road underdog this week against Oklahoma. If the Rebels lose, they might have trouble making the College Football Playoff even if they’re able to win out against South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State. Ole Miss’s only quality win at this point came against LSU, and that victory seems to be losing luster with each passing week. There’s a chance Ole Miss’s best win at the end of the season, in the eyes of the CFP committee, will be against Tulane. If that’s the case, will Ole Miss have a convincing-enough case at 10-2 to earn an at-large berth? I’m not so sure. Even if Ole Miss does win this weekend, I think it could have another stumble or 2 later in the season and miss out on the 12-team field.
Pick: Ole Miss to miss the CFP (+105 on BetMGM)
4+ SEC teams to make the College Football Playoff
While I expect Ole Miss to miss out on a CFP berth this year, I do expect the SEC to be very well represented in the 12-team field this year. I think as many as 5 College Football Playoff berths are on the table for the SEC and 4 is a virtual lock.
The SEC was dominant in nonconference action and is the best league by a wide margin by basically measure you could point to. Last season, the SEC struggled in noncon (relatively speaking) and still would have earned 4 CFP berths if not for Clemson beating SMU in the ACC Championship Game on the last play of the game. It’s also worth noting that the College Football Playoff selection committee previously announced changes to how it weighs strength of schedule during rankings meetings. We don’t have the data to know for sure, but my hunch is that will benefit the SEC.
Bet365 currently has the SEC’s CFP berths prop priced at -330 for over 3.5 berths. That’s steep juice, but -330 odds translates to an implied probability of 76.74%. I think this should be priced at much closer to 90% implied probability considering how this season has gone so far. Per FPI, there are 3 teams from the SEC with better than 80% chance to make the Playoff. An additional 5 teams have at least a 30% chance to make the field. If you add up all of those percentages, you get north of 4.8 projected CFP teams according to FPI.
The other conferences aren’t looking too great either. The ACC will get a maximum of 2 bids and could only end up with 1. The Big 12 is almost certainly going to be a 1-bid league. The Big Ten may only get 3 teams in this year barring complete turnarounds from Michigan or USC. Even if Notre Dame gets an at-large spot and some of the SEC’s top contenders drop games down the stretch, there should still be room for a 9-3 SEC team with a good nonconference résumé to make the Playoff.
Pick: SEC over 3.5 College Football Playoff teams (-330 on bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
