3 early bets to make for Week 0 & Week 1 of the 2025 college football season
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The new college football season is almost here.
On Monday, the preseason AP Top 25 Poll dropped. Now, it’s starting to feel like football weather.
Toe meets leather on the new season in 10 days, and the opening 2 weeks of the 2025 season might be one of the better opening stretches we’ve seen. We’ll get a matchup between ranked Big 12 teams in Ireland in Week 0. Then we’ll get 3 different matchups between top 10 teams in Week 1.
With the clock ticking down, here are some bets to make on the early action.
College football odds for Week 0 & Week 1 games
No. 17 Kansas State vs. No. 22 Iowa State (Dublin, Ireland)
- Kansas State -3.5 | Total: 49.5 | Money line: Kansas State -175, Iowa State +145
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State (Columbus, Ohio)
- Ohio State -2.5 | Total: 48.5 | Money line: Ohio State -130, Texas +110
Georgia State at No. 21 Ole Miss (Oxford, Miss.)
- Ole Miss -38.5 | Total: 62.5
odds via BetMGM
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Bet Kansas State-Iowa State total under 49.5
Over the last 10 seasons, Farmageddon has produced at least 50 combined points in a game 6 times. The 2023 version of this game featured a 42-35 final score. Iowa State scored 45 points in a shutout in 2020. The 2018 game was a 42-38 thriller.
When these 2 sides have gotten together of late, we have typically seen plenty of points. However, this game has also typically been played late in the season. The Week 0 game in Dublin will mark the earliest meeting between these 2 in series history.
What are some usual hallmarks of early-season games? Sloppy tackling, poor organization, bad timing. Last year’s Aer Lingus Classic between Florida State and Georgia Tech went under the projected point total. The 2023 version of the game between Notre Dame and Navy went under the projected point total.
Since 2016, the under in Week 0 games between power conference teams is 3-1. Nebraska-Northwestern in 2022 is the only game that cleared its point total, and that game featured the odds-defying genius of Scott Frost.
Kansas State’s defense was awesome last year at preventing explosives. Iowa State’s offense was awesome at avoiding negative plays and controlling the ball. Kansas State’s offense wants to run with quarterback Avery Johnson and tailback Dylan Edwards. Iowa State’s defense was poor stopping the run last season and has to replace a ton up front.
I’m leaning toward a game that is less about racing up and down the field and more about trying to find those 1 or 2 explosive plays that flip the game.
Bet Ohio State money line
Ohio State is starting over after a record-tying 14 players were selected in the 2025 NFL Draft. Ohio State is also coming off a national championship season and some might have you believe the Buckeyes will be hungover in Week 1 against the visiting Longhorns.
The notion that Ohio State wouldn’t be in tip-top mental shape for the game completely flew out the window when the Longhorns were installed as the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll this week. You really think the defending champs aren’t going to be looking to make a statement in their own house against the No. 1?Â
Maybe some are concerned about the coordinator hires Ryan Day made this offseason, but talent wins out at the end of the day and no one has more talent than Ohio State. Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio has Ohio State tied with Alabama for the most talented roster in the sport, with an 89% BCR. Texas is at 78%.
Ohio State has the best offensive player in the sport in Jeremiah Smith. It has the best defensive player in the sport in Caleb Downs. Ohio State has the better receiving corps in the matchup, with Carnell Tate a No. 1 option playing Robin to Smith’s Batman and Purdue transfer tight end Max Klare. Ohio State also has an offensive line with 12 former blue-chippers and 6 guys with starting experience.
The Buckeyes are No. 1 in preseason SP+ with a defense that projects as the second-best in the country. The Buckeyes are also favored, setting the table for the first AP No. 1 in the last 50 years to open the season as an underdog. I’m siding with oddsmakers and models with strong track records over SEC talking heads on ESPN.
If this is a tight game, the home side gets the edge in a matchup between inexperienced quarterbacks.
Ohio State is also 19-2 in home nonconference games over the last 10 seasons.
Bet Ole Miss -38.5
Under Lane Kiffin, the Rebels have gone 8-2 against the spread in August/September games against non-power conference teams. They went 3-0 in such games last year, covering spreads of 45 points, 42 points, and 35.5 points. And they were 2-0 the year before, covering a 35-point spread in the process.
One thing we know about Kiffin’s offense: it can produce points at warp speed. While it requires a confident quarterback to run it, I don’t think we’ll see a prolonged ramp-up period with projected starter Austin Simmons. A third-year sophomore, Simmons has been in the system long enough to know where he has to be with his eyes any given play.
With one of the deepest wideout rotations in the country, Ole Miss will surround Simmons with a host of playmakers this season. We’ll see how things look against stiffer SEC competition, but Georgia State should not provide much defensive resistance at all.
The Panthers went 3-9 last year, allowing an average of 34 points per game to opposing teams. Georgia Tech scored 35. Vanderbilt scored 32. According to Game on Paper, the Panthers were 114th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed and 109th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Nothing about the first year-plus under head coach Dell McGee has signaled stability for the Panthers. They lost 7 straight after upsetting Vanderbilt last year, replaced both coordinators in the offseason, had to hire a second defensive coordinator after his first choice left just weeks later for another job, and lost nearly half the roster to the transfer portal. The defense is starting from scratch. Ole Miss will be flying up and down the field all day.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
