No. 20 Tennessee and Florida meet for the 55th time on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in a sold-out Swamp.
The Tennessee Volunteers are unbeaten against unranked foes this season and looking for their first win in Gainesville since the first term of the George W. Bush Administration (2003). The Florida Gators have not dropped 2 consecutive games against Tennessee since 2003-2004.
The Gators will honor legendary head coach Urban Meyer in a ceremony before the game. Meyer won 2 national championships in Gainesville and finished his career at Florida a tidy 6-0 against the rival Volunteers. Florida interim head coach Billy Gonzales, now 0-3 at the helm, was a vital assistant under Meyer during the latter’s tenure in Gainesville.
Tennessee marks the 8th game for the Gators against a ranked opponent in 2025. That’s the most in the country. The Gators’ strength of schedule ranks second in America. Tennessee’s ranks 45th — one of the easiest slates in the SEC.
The 2 programs were the center of the SEC universe in the 1990s and early 2000s– the SEC’s premier rivalry during the Steve Spurrier and Phil Fulmer years. Now, the rivalry is mostly a parochial afterthought, diluted by long runs of mediocrity at both institutions. In fact, due to the SEC moving to a 9-game schedule in 2026, the Gators and Volunteers will no longer play on an annual basis, ending a 36-year run of consecutive games that dates back to 1990.
Who will emerge victorious on Saturday night? Here are 3 matchups that will define a rivalry that may not command national attention, but certainly captivates the hearts of 2 fan bases.
Can Florida pressure Joey Aguilar and create some short fields?
Florida managed to stay in the game on the road at Ole Miss thanks to a pass rush that created 14 pressures and 5 sacks (a season-high allowed by the Rebels) against QB Trinidad Chambliss. Florida’s pass rush will be without George Gumbs, a key cog in their pass rush all season, but the Gators will get a boost when Caleb Banks, the team’s first-team preseason All-SEC defensive lineman, returns from injury. Banks has played just 29 snaps this season, and his absence has been felt — especially late in games as Florida grows tired.
A fully healthy Banks could be a game-changer for the Gators, who have had to rely increasingly on simulated pressures and blitzes to generate pressure the past 3 weeks.
Like most quarterbacks, Aguilar is far less effective when pressured. Aguilar has 10 interceptions this season– 8 have come under pressure, per PFF. Aguilar’s adjusted depth of target of 10.1 is among the top 3 in the SEC this season, but the number drops to just 7.8 under pressure. The shorter throws make it harder for Tennessee to hit the explosive plays (37 passes of 20 yards or more) that make their offense one of the best in the country (2nd in scoring offense at 43.4 points per game).
Give Aguilar time and, with perimeter playmakers like Chris Brazzell II, he’ll rip you apart.
Get him under pressure and the Vols are still potent, but beatable.
DJ Lagway showed signs of life vs. Ole Miss. Was it fool’s gold or will he exploit a poor Tennessee secondary?
The continued absence of All-SEC corner Jermod McCoy has hurt Tennessee’s defense this season, but the Volunteers have larger problems in the secondary than the absence of their best player. Tennessee’s safety play has been woeful, with the Vols ranking 102nd in explosive pass plays allowed (35) and 113th in pass defense.
Andres Turrentine has allowed more completions of 20 yards or more in coverage (12 on just 15 targets) than any safety in the SEC. Edrees Farooq is a big hitter, but he’s allowed 5 completions of 20 yards or more on his own in just 8 one-on-one coverage situations. And that’s just the 2 safeties playing the most snaps! The corners are a little better, but only Colton Hood has allowed a completion percentage of 50% or lower this season — and he’s right at 50% through 10 games.
In other words, the Vols’ secondary is what their numbers say they are.
DJ Lagway finished second in the SEC as a true freshman in average depth of target and explosive passing plays per snaps played, behind only first-round draft pick Jaxson Dart. This season, he has just 11 big-time throws (7 fewer than 2024!) and 19 turnover-worthy plays (12 more than 2024!) That’s not regression — that’s a cataclysmic drop-off that almost boggles the imagination.
Still, Lagway’s first half against Ole Miss was promising — with the Gators posting 24 points and moving the ball consistently and explosively down the field. Sure, the Gators were shutout in the second half when Pete Golding switched to a zone defense. And yes, Lagway threw a critical pick with Florida driving for at least a tying field goal late in the fourth quarter.
But there was something to build on in the Ole Miss game. Can Lagway replicate it — without the mistakes — at home?
Lagway will have to do so without his best 3 receiving targets: Eugene Wilson III, Dallas Wilson, and Vernell Brown III are all expected to miss the game due to injury.
But if Florida wants to win a rivalry game this season (the Gators are 0-3 thus far in 2025 in rivalry contests) — DJ needs to figure himself out again in the final 2 weeks of the season.
Myles Graham and the Florida linebackers vs. Tennessee’s tempo and run game
The Volunteers rank third in the nation in tempo (plays run vs. time of possession) and their tempo doesn’t just wear on you physically, it takes a toll mentally.
The Vols bang on you with the run game, which they run at one play per 20-second clip, led by DeSean Bishop, who has 770 yards and 10 touchdowns this season at a beautiful 6.5 yards per rush. Bishop is solid after contact, too, with a 3.68 yards after contact per rush average that is in the top 5 among SEC running backs, per PFF. He runs hard and is difficult to tackle when he gets to the second level.
Florida struggled to finish plays against Kewan Lacy, allowing the Ole Miss back (who leads the nation in yards after contact) to gain over 140 of his 224 yards after contact last week.
Can Florida clean that up in a second consecutive game against a team that plays with great tempo?
“We had some players in position to make tackles, and we didn’t make tackles, whether they grabbed cloth, whether they ducked their head at a time, whether we got moved out of the gap,” Gonzales said. “Again, we played hard, but as a coaching staff, we got to make sure that we’re playing well. And our players, again, that’s why I said, we got to take accountability as a coaching staff, and as players, to go make those plays.”
Myles Graham, who was sensational at Ole Miss (9 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 pass defended) will be at the center of the efforts, tasked with organizing the Florida defense and making sure the mental — not just the physical — challenge of playing the Vols’ fast pace doesn’t cause the Gators to blow run gaps and help the Vols establish the run on the road.
Prediction: Florida 30, Tennessee 27
There’s almost zero reason to pick Florida in this game. The Gators have nothing to play for and the Volunteers are an explosive offensive team that should simply outscore the Gators even if Florida’s offense plays well, which it hasn’t for an entire game this season. And yet… I’ll believe Tennessee wins in the Swamp as soon as it happens again. The Gators in a big upset.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
