LSU and Florida meet for the 72nd time on Saturday night in Death Valley (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Technically, the Florida Gators lead the series by 3 games, thanks to multiple vacated LSU wins. In truth, the series is tied: 34-34-3. It’s difficult in sport to find a more evenly matched rivalry, even though LSU had reeled off 5 consecutive wins over the Gators until Florida bested the Tigers 27-16 last season in The Swamp.
The September meeting is the earliest battle between the 2 tradition-rich programs since 1984, when the teams tied 21-21. That Florida team would go on to win the SEC and an unclaimed national championship, finishing the campaign ranked No. 1 in the New York Times and Jeff Sagarin polls, both of which have been used by other SEC schools to claim titles historically.
This Florida team is not currently focused on pursuing a national championship, or certainly shouldn’t be, particularly following last week’s disappointing 18-16 home defeat to South Florida.
Instead, the Gators are hoping to use a rivalry game win to take heat off their head coach, Billy Napier, and perhaps find a springboard for the remainder of a season that until last weekend’s debacle was supposed to be the most promising in years in Gainesville.
As for LSU, the Tigers opened the campaign with an impressive 17-10 win at Clemson, dominating the second half in one of college football’s toughest environments. The Clemson win was validating and important in many ways for Brian Kelly, who has had some highs in Baton Rouge (the Jayden Daniels Heisman win, a 20-2 home record), but has also lost at least 3 games in each of his 3 seasons at the helm. A ho-hum victory over in-state foe Louisiana Tech followed, but the Tigers, with a revamped defense and one of the nation’s smartest, toughest quarterbacks, appear poised to finally compete for a championship under Kelly.
Both teams are playing their SEC opener. Who has the edge? LSU is a substantial favorite (7 points at bet365), but Florida should play desperately and loose, even in a raucous night environment at Tiger Stadium.
Who has the edge?
Here are 3 matchups that will define the 72nd edition of LSU and Florida.
DJ Lagway vs. Blake Baker’s third-down variance on defense
LSU’s defense has been spectacular on third down early in the season, allowing opponents to convert just 23% of their third-down opportunities.
Florida’s offense has been fair to middling on the critical down, with just 11 conversions on 25 attempts (44%).
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker is known for exotic blitz packages, but he’s especially creative and innovative on third down.
LSU will show 2 safeties and play 3 deep on occasion, using 6 to front pressure the quarterback and force quick throws underneath, before the sticks. They also like this unique Cover 2 look, where they run a creeper pressure with the hole defender crashing late and Whit Weeks capably dropping to play cover two.
If it’s 3rd-and-long, they get aggressive. Baker has played straight man, all out pressure Cover 0 on 5 third downs of 7 or longer this season.
If it’s 3rd-and-short, they’ll make sure your quarterback can’t run, which Lagway appears (finally) prepared to do again as his calf has fully healed from an injury in summer camp. Using the same Cover 2 look above, they’ll blitz the inside linebacker (Weeks) but spy with a defensive end (usually Patrick Payton, who runs really well) and drop one more linebacker into coverage, cutting off the safety valves.
And these are but a few examples of how LSU will attack you with different looks and eye candy pre-snap on third down.
A season ago, Lagway struggled with exotic pressures, especially when defenses disguised who was in coverage until the last moment. The real danger in this football game for Florida is that Lagway, in his first SEC road start, is confused and forces things coming off a hard loss. If that happens, this game could get sideways for the Gators.
This week, Napier lamented that the next step for his young quarterback is handling front pressures and disguised coverages.
“Yeah, I think this offseason we went really hard to work on defensive structure, front pressures and coverages,” Napier said. “He’s made huge strides, but he’s missed time.”
On Saturday night in Death Valley, time is up. To win, Lagway has to apply what he’s learned and put it into practice.
Lagway was the better quarterback in this game a season ago. The only way Florida wins Saturday is if Lagway replicates that feat.
LSU’s bread and butter: Empty and Shock Sets vs. Florida’s Outstanding Secondary
Florida gave up one long touchdown pass to South Florida last week — a 66-yard catch and run by Keshaun Singleton that was likely intercepted or incomplete had either Florida defensive back properly timed his jump.
Outside of that completion, Florida has allowed under 5.5 yards per attempt and the Gators rank 14th in success rate defense against the pass. Success rate, for those unfamiliar, measure how many yards are gained towards a first down given down and distance. A play is successful if it gains 40% on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd or 4th down.
LSU ranks 88th in passing success rate to date, with Garrett Nussmeier averaging just 5.9 yards per completion. Nussmeier and LSU have produced just 6 explosive plays of over 20 yards as well, a number that ranks an anemic 104th in the country.
A big reason? LSU’s offensive line isn’t holding up in their favored sets. The staple of Brian Kelly’s offense is a series of empty and 1-back sets the Tigers call “Shock.”
The concept features 3 receivers to one side, a boundary receiver on the other side, and an “X” figure who can flex in the slot or as a solo running back. The concept is lauded in NFL circles for how multiple it makes an offense despite the base simplicity. LSU runs a host of concepts out of the formation, adapting it to any number of coverages. At its core, however, it involves 3 basic routes by the overloaded side of the field: a shallow hitch at the boundary, a slot fade, and a stick route by the inside receiver in trips — sometimes a tight end depending on concept. This base framework allows LSU to attack in a number of ways — and in the Kelly era, the Tigers — when they block — have feasted on the Gators in this concept.
Above is the standard Shock/Lucy. The Florida defense pushes to the strong side, where the overload is located. That’s a simple read for the quarterback, who hits the intermediate route runner in the space vacated by Florida’s strong side push.
Here, Florida switches to man coverage, and LSU attacks vertically, hitting the isolated go by the backside receiver. Florida’s young safety has to choose between the slot-fade and the backside go — and with elite receiver talent, that split-second choice is enough to create separation.
LSU will also run the ball out of this look too — as seen above — but again, it is currently underperforming in this set, averaging just 4.01 yards per attempt in the look.
“Shock” is still LSU’s best concept (8.1 yards per play this season). But with a young offensive line now missing outstanding center Braelin Moore, can they hold up long enough to get open against a talented Gators secondary? This will help decide the football game, along with…
Florida’s ability to avoid negatives in the run game and run the Baugh
Florida’s run game has been feast or famine this season.
The Gators have 24 run plays that have gone for 1 yard or less. They lead the SEC in negative rushing plays.
They also have an astounding 70.3% success rate on Jadan Baugh rushing plays. The sophomore running back currently ranks third in the SEC in rushing yards (197) and first in the SEC in yards per run 7.3 (minimum 25 carries). A season ago, it was Baugh who broke the game open with this jaunt around left tackle in the fourth quarter.
LSU’s run defense has been special in the early going. The Tigers rank 7th in the nation in rushing defense and success rate defense. They have 9 (most in the SEC) run defenders grading out at 70 or better, per PFF, and they have registered 9 tackles for loss against the run. Harold Perkins Jr. looks strong playing his natural position again and Florida transfer Jack Pyburn has given LSU a genuinely stout player to hold the edge against the run.
Florida’s offensive line, featuring first-team All-American Jake Slaughter and second-team All-SEC selection Austin Barber, has yet to play its best game.
This is strength on strength, and the Gators must run to win.
Prediction: LSU 20, Florida 17
Take Florida and the points, but in the end, I expect Mansoor Delane and the LSU defense to make enough big plays in the fourth quarter to stave off an inspired upset bid from Florida. A late DJ Lagway turnover will be the difference.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
