College football’s rivalry week is finally here.
Last week in this story, we highlighted Ohio State’s record as a 2-touchdown favorite, Mack Brown’s ATS struggles and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 14:
Sam Pittman as an underdog
Arkansas is a 3-point underdog against Missouri this weekend on the road, according to betMGM.
Since Sam Pittman took over in 2020, the Razorbacks have been excellent in this spot. They are 22-11 against the spread with 9 outright wins as an underdog in all settings.
Arkansas is also 13-3 against the spread as a road underdog during the Pittman era.
Lincoln Riley as an underdog
USC is a 7.5-point underdog this weekend against Notre Dame, per bet365.
It’s not often that Lincoln Riley-led teams are underdogs, but historically this has been a good spot to back his teams. Between his seasons at Oklahoma and USC, Riley is 8-4-1 against the spread as an underdog. That includes a 5-2 mark since he took over at USC.
Riley has also been good against the number in rivalry games as a head coach. In contests vs. Oklahoma State, Texas, Notre Dame and UCLA, Riley is 9-6 against the spread.
Greg Schiano as a road underdog
Rutgers is a 2-point underdog this weekend on the road at Michigan State, per the latest odds from Caesars.
Backing Rutgers in this spot has been very profitable for bettors during the Greg Schiano era. Since 2020, Rutgers is 11-6-3 against the spread as a road underdog. That’s a cover rate of nearly 65%.
Over the same span, Rutgers also beats the number about 61% of the time in all road Big Ten games.
Mike Lockley as an underdog
Maryland is a massive dog this weekend against Penn State. The line is currently at +24.5, per FanDuel.
Since Locksley took over in 2019, this has not been a particularly good spot to back the Terps. Maryland is just 8-14 against the spread over that span as an underdog of 7 or more. Maryland also has just 2 outright victories in those games.
The cover rate drops to just 29% (5-12) when looking at all Big Ten road games where Maryland is the underdog over the same time span.
History of The Game
Ohio State will host Michigan this weekend as the Buckeyes look to stop a 3-game losing streak in the series. The Buckeyes are 19.5-point favorites this weekend, according to the latest lines from DraftKings.
This is the largest spread for The Game since 2014 when the Buckeyes were 21.5-point favorites in Columbus. The Buckeyes won the game 42-28, but Michigan earned the cover.
It’s also the third-largest spread for any Ohio State-Michigan meeting this century. The only other time this line has crossed the 20-point threshold since 2000 was in 2008. Ohio State was favored by 20 in that game and easily beat the number with a 40-7 victory.
Since 2000, Ohio State is 17-6 straight up against the Wolverines. However, the ATS battle has been much closer. The Buckeyes hold a narrow 12-11 edge against the spread over that span.
This game will mark the 18th time that Michigan has been an underdog in this series since 2000. The Wolverines have 3 outright victories under those circumstances, with their most recent victory coming in 2022.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
