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It’s almost time for Week 6 of the college football season.
Last week in this piece, we went over Notre Dame’s record vs. the ACC, Deion Sanders’ history as a double-digit underdog, Ohio State’s track record as a big favorite in conference games and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 6:
Pitt as a road favorite
Pitt will travel to Chapel Hill this weekend to take on a down-on-their-luck Tar Heels team. Carolina has suffered losses in back-to-back games, including a rivalry game defeat to Duke in Week 5.
Given UNC’s struggles, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the Panthers as 3-point favorites (via DraftKings) over Carolina in this spot. Unfortunately for UNC, it’s been extremely profitable to back the Panthers as road favorites in the Pat Narduzzi era.
Since 2015, Pitt is 16-5 against the spread when favored on the road. That’s a cover rate north of 76% over a near-decade long sample. Pitt is also 17-4 straight up in this spot over the same span.
Service academy totals
Navy will take on Air Force this weekend in the first game of the year that features 2 service academies. There’s a long history of unders being the way to go when approaching these contests.
It makes sense, given the reliance on the triple option offense from Army, Navy and Air Force. When both teams are running that offense, tempo is bound to be low. Of course, the books know this as well, so the slow pace in these games should be baked into the line.
And yet, the under has been utterly dominant in games featuring 2 service academies. Since the start of the 2014 season, the under is 26-3-1 in these spots — a preposterous cover rate of nearly 90%.
For Navy-Air Force games in particular, the under is 8-2 over that same span. If you exclude an outlier game in 2017 when the over covered by 39.5 points, the under is beating the Vegas number by an average of 5.7 points per game in this series over the last decade.
Here’s what the totals have looked like in the last 10 meetings between Navy and Air Force:
The total for Navy-Air Force on Saturday is currently set at 37 points, per the latest lines from bet365.
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Backing Georgia after a loss
Georgia lost a heartbreaker to Alabama last weekend. The Bulldogs will now try to move forward with Auburn coming to town on Saturday for the latest edition of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.
Historically, this has been a good spot for UGA in the Kirby Smart era. Since the start of the 2016 season, Georgia is 9-5 against the spread when coming off of a loss.
Of course, Georgia hasn’t lost very often — especially in recent years. This loss to Alabama was its first regular-season defeat since the 2020 season.
Georgia is a 24-point home favorite against Auburn this weekend, per Caesars.
Matt Rhule after a win
Matt Rhule is in just his 2nd season at Nebraska, but there’s an interesting trend regarding some of his previous college teams that I want to point out.
Rhule is known as a great program builder, but it’s deeper than that. He’s done a tremendous job of taking mediocre teams and turning them into serial winners within a year or two. And beyond just winning games on the field, Rhule also consistently beats the market — even as expectations raise with each additional win.
Here’s a look at Rhule’s ATS record after a win at both of his previous college head coaching stops:
- Temple (2013-16): 18-8 (69.2%)
- Baylor (2017-19): 11-6-1 (64.7%)
Those are some darn-good numbers. It does come with the caveat that Rhule is just 2-5 against the spread following wins since taking the Nebraska job, but 4 of those losses came last season when it was just his first year on the job — he’s just getting started in Lincoln. There’s a long track record here that says Rhule knows how to keep the momentum going once it starts.
Nebraska defeated Purdue 28-10 last week. The Huskers are 7-point favorites this weekend against Rutgers, per ESPN BET.
Breaking down Iowa totals
Iowa is off to a 3-1 start this season, but it’s been anything but typical.
The Hawkeyes have quietly been improved on offense this season (as evidenced by their 31-point showing against Minnesota in Week 4) but also worse on defense. The market has been relatively slow to adapt to the change in Iowa’s statistical profile, however.
The over is 3-0 in Iowa games this year (FBS only) and the final score is clearing the total by an average of 10+ points per game so far in 2024.
The reason for the additional scoring is two-fold. Iowa’s offense has improved to be roughly average amongst FBS teams — as opposed to at the very bottom of the country. Iowa’s offense is 72nd nationally is GameOnPaper’s adjusted EPA-per-play metric entering Week 6 (it finished dead last in 2023 and 126th in 2022).
Iowa’s defense has also been worse to start the season. The Hawkeyes’ defense ranks 25th in the same schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play stat after ranking 3rd in that category in 2023. It’s been particularly problematic in the passing game. Iowa has already given up 11 pass plays of 20+ yards this season. The Hawkeyes conceded just 18 such plays during the entire 2023 campaign.
How unusual is this behavior from Iowa? In the previous 5 seasons, the over in Hawkeyes games was dominant to the tune of a 41-19-1 record.
Iowa will face Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday afternoon. The total has been set at 45 points, per bet365.
Note: Trends via BetIQ
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
