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One of the most interesting matchups of bowl season was the Citrus Bowl. Was. It stood to pit Heisman winner Lamar Jackson of Lousville against arguably the nation’s most talented player in LSU’s Leonard Fournette. But then Fournette decided he wouldn’t play, and some of the luster came off the game.
But not much luster was lost. This is still a quality matchup of two exciting teams, and Fournette or not, it’ll be an exciting New Year’s Eve matchup. With two top-20 teams and a long list of exciting players, this one is a must-see. It’s also time to get bold — to give you five predictions of what you might see.
1. LSU won’t miss Leonard Fournette.
Leonard who? Sure, he’s probably the most talented college football player on the planet. And sure he isn’t playing in the Citrus Bowl. But sophomore backup Derrius Guice isn’t exactly chopped liver. Guice rushed for 1,249 yards and 14 touchdowns at a whopping 8.0 yards per carry. Honestly, a healthy Guice is probably better than a dinged-up Fournette. Louisville’s run stats look great, mostly because they dominated bad competition. Kentucky had little trouble running the ball, and neither will LSU, even with Guice instead of Fournette.
2. LSU will get a defensive score.
Everybody talks about the dominant Louisville offense — which is basically Lamar Jackson and the 10 other guys. But here’s a dirty secret — that offense has significant turnover problems. In the last four games of the season, the Cardinals averaged 3.3 turnovers. Sure, they eclipsed 490 yards in three of the four, but they ended up 2-2. DBs Tre Davious White and Jamal Adams are each guys to watch — but somebody will make a play and steal a score for the Tigers.
3. Arden Key for MVP.
Bearing in mind that Louisville is turnover prone — but also incredibly explosive — what is LSU’s biggest key to defensive success? Getting heat on Lamar Jackson early and often. Houston sacked Jackson 10 times, and if that number seems unreachable, well, Kentucky sacked him four times. LSU stud Arden Key has the skill set to absolutely dominate a pedestrian Louisville line. Look for Key to spend about as much time in the Louisville backfield as any of the UofL running backs. Key will end up with three or four tackles for loss, and might create a turnover on his own.
4. Jackson and tight end Hikutini will burn the Tigers.
Lamar Jackson’s athleticism alone won’t shred the Tigers, but he can make some plays in the passing game. In particular, tight end Cole Hikutini can have a big game working the seams against LSU. The Tigers won’t be afraid to blitz, and Hikutini is the kind of player who can take a check-down pass and rumble for 15 or 20 yards. Watch for Jackson to hit Hikutini for some big passes to keep Louisville in the game.
5. LSU will pull away late.
Basically in the post-Les Miles era, every game that the LSU Tigers have played has felt like a message. Even when LSU came up short against Alabama or lost by a yard to Florida, there was a feeling that a statement was being made about Ed Orgeron and the future of Tigers football. Now that Orgeron has dropped the interim tag from his head coaching role, it’s tempting to see that as a thing of the past. Coach O is the Head Tiger, the story is over. But this statement approach really hasn’t had as much to do with Orgeron as it has with LSU itself, with a group of players who were systematically underachieving. And without Fournette or injured linebacker Kendell Beckwith, or whoever else doesn’t play, that element is still alive and well. LSU has the potential to be one of the best teams in the country in 2017. Louisville, on the other hand, feels a lot like a team that has been exposed in the last few games of this season. Look for that trend to continue. This game will be competitive into the fourth quarter, when LSU will take over — maybe a 42-28, 45-31 type of final score. But LSU will once again take the chance to say “We’re back.”
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
