5 non-Arch Manning questions that’ll have a huge say in Texas-Ohio State
Published:
Arch Manning’s first career road start will have an eyeball or 2 on it. You heard it here first.
There’s no denying that while Manning got his first career college start out of the way in place of the injured Quinn Ewers in 2024, the long-awaited debut as Texas’s QB1 will be dissected as much as anything during Week 1. That probably would’ve been the case if Manning had been kicking off the season against Rice, but instead, it’s a top-3 showdown at defending champion Ohio State, who fended off Texas in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal matchup.
By now, some Manning fatigue could be setting in. After all, we’ve been hearing about his inevitable greatness for 5-6 years. And if Manning is elite? It’s safe to say that we’ll be hearing about it for the foreseeable future.
Manning is far from the only worthy factor in Saturday’s epic opening clash. Here are 5 non-Manning questions that will have a huge say in deciding the Texas-Ohio State rematch:
1. Can Texas take Jeremiah Smith out of the game again? And if so, what does that mean for Carnell Tate?
Lost in the shuffle of last year’s thriller in the Cotton Bowl was, well, Smith. As in, the best player on the field was taken out of the game by Texas, who vowed to do the opposite of what Tennessee did and bracket him with an elite secondary. It worked by holding Smith to 1 catch for 3 yards. It also freed up Tate for 87 yards on 7 catches. The only completion that went for 20 yards was the disastrous (for Texas) screen pass to TreVeyon Henderson that went for a 75-yard touchdown right before the half.
There should be a similar strategy from Pete Kwiatkowski, albeit with a slightly different secondary than the one that contained Smith last year. It’s also a slightly different supporting cast for Smith. Tate is back and still plenty capable of leading the way if Smith is eliminated, but Ohio State is working with a new quarterback, backfield and tight end. Oh, and it’s a new play-caller in Brian Hartline.
Smith doesn’t need much space to do his damage, but as we saw last year with Tate, Ohio State could still be capable of moving the chains without him.
2. Will Colin Simmons back his words and get after Julian Sayin in his debut as QB1?
Simmons made waves during fall camp by sharing Ohio State’s announcement that Sayin would be QB1 on Instagram, and the second-year edge rusher doubled down on that.
Alrighty, then. Simmons is coming off a debut season in which he earned Shaun Alexander True Freshman of the Year honors after he had a team-high 9 sacks. If he’s not at the top of Ohio State’s scouting report, it’s only because he’s part of a Texas front 7 that’s loaded with talent. Simmons will have help from the likes of Trey Moore, Anthony Hill Jr., Ethan Burke and the rest of that Texas defense, all of which would love to make Sayin’s debut one to forget.
One would expect that the ball will be getting out of Sayin’s hands quickly, and they’ll likely do everything in their power to prevent Simmons and Co. from pinning their ears back on the young signal caller. The 5-star 2024 recruits will have an interesting chess match. The winner will set the tone for a pair of units that should be able to do more than talk in 2025.
3. What is CJ Baxter capable of in his return?
Last year, I predicted that Baxter would lead the SEC in rushing. There was a ton to like about an 18-year-old who had over 100 scrimmage yards in a Playoff game. Then, of course, he suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp and his Year 2 was over before it even began.
Whether this is Year 2 or Year 3, it’s Baxter’s first live action since that Playoff game. What does the former 5-star recruit look like? Does Steve Sarkisian trust him in big spots? After all, Texas boasts the SEC‘s lone returning 1,000-yard rusher in Tre Wisner. The preseason All-SEC selection emerged as the go-to back last year, especially down the stretch when Jaydon Blue dealt with fumbling issues. With Blue off to the NFL, there’s an expectation that Baxter’s return will put him into a prominent role on that offense. As a true freshman, he averaged 2.94 yards after first contact and forced 29 missed tackles on runs while catching 23 passes. There’s a versatile skill set that should pair well with Wisner.
Last year in this game, Texas couldn’t run the ball and turned to its backs more in the passing game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a Week 1 role like that for Baxter to provide a safety valve for Manning.
4. How healthy does Trevor Goosby look at left tackle?
Sarkisian said that Goosby is expected to play in Week 1 after an undisclosed hand injury had him limited in fall camp. That’s positive. Not so positive is that Goosby is responsible for protecting Manning’s blindside at left tackle in a post-Kelvin Banks Jr. world. As promising as Goosby was at both tackle spots down the stretch, he’s still got a major challenge ahead whether he’s at 100% or not.
The worst-case scenario for Texas is that Goosby looks overmatched against the Ohio State pass rush, and Manning takes a beating. Yes, he’s mobile, but there’s a difference between running to move the chains compared to running to save your life, and doing so in Week 1. It’s a new-look offensive line with 4 new starters, including Goosby. In an ideal world, he rises to the occasion like he did in the Texas A&M game and a matchup with little margin for error goes to the visiting Longhorns. Also in an ideal world, the entire playbook is open and we see the full arsenal for Manning.
That starts with Goosby looking like he’s 100%.
5. Who becomes the new go-to target for Texas?
OK, so this is definitely a Manning-adjacent storyline because he’s the one who’ll be throwing passes, but this is a huge piece of the puzzle after the Longhorns’ top 3 targets all left for the NFL. Well, I suppose I should add that Isaiah Bond was in that group when he was healthy, but he’s gone now.
High expectations have been set for Ryan Wingo, who earned preseason All-SEC honors even though he wasn’t among the top 50 in the SEC in receiving yards in conference play in 2024. There’s hope that he can be the next great Texas wideout and do a lot of the things that Matthew Golden did last year. That is, stretch the field and make catches in traffic. Golden had a 20-yard catch in 15 of 16 games last season, and he was No. 1 in the SEC with 23 such grabs. Mind you, that was for a Texas offense that was criticized for how much the passing game relied on throws behind the line of scrimmage.
Wingo is tasked with taking advantage of the talented, but oft-penalized, corner Davis Igbinosun. Of course, any sort of Texas downfield passing attack will have to account for the guy who might be the best returning player in the sport, Caleb Downs. That challenge will also go to DeAndre Moore, who had 10 catches of 20 yards as a primary slot receiver. If Stanford post-spring transfer Emmett Mosley is able to shake off a “limited” tag and play, he’ll add some versatility to a group that’ll be finding its identity in the first part of the season.
Last year, Ewers found a go-to option in Gunnar Helm (NFL). Can Cal transfer Jake Endries have a similar impact and command attention in the middle of the field? Him becoming a safety valve for Manning would be a key Week 1 development.
The good news for Manning is that there are plenty of options. All he’s gotta do is go find them against the defending champs.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
