5 numbers to ponder as Alabama starts Playoff preparation for Oklahoma
Published:
Last Sunday morning, as a bunch of human beings cranked out a bunch of numbers to determine the fate of a slew of college football teams, Alabama waited and wondered.
Would it still get its shot in the College Football Playoff after getting shot down hard by Georgia in that forgettable SEC title game loss? Would the terrible numbers like, say, the hideous minus-3 yards rushing that the Crimson Tide mustered in Atlanta outweigh the good numbers and leave Bama on the outside looking in for the 2nd straight season under Kalen DeBoer?
Everything Alabama had worked for this fall, 8-game winning streak and all, was in danger of being for naught as that Playoff committee glossed over the evidence and delivered its verdict. For the Tide, that verdict was a sort of stay of execution, because the committee decided they were still worthy of being a Playoff team, slapping Bama with the 9 seed and a trip to Norman on Dec. 19 to face 8-seed and SEC rival Oklahoma.
As a program and a fan base exhaled while shaking their heads for the predicament they were in, Alabama gets a chance to wipe the slate clean and know it is 4 victories away from winning another national title. Way easier said than done, right? Absolutely right, considering the shaky level of play Bama has shown over the past several weeks, especially on offense.
But no matter how they got here, the Tide are here. They are 1 of 12 teams with a shot at this thing in 2025, and as they start preparation for an Oklahoma team they just lost to at home a month ago, here are some of those aforementioned numbers to ponder. We’ll go with 5 of them, as Alabama gets back to work trying to become the best version of itself when it truly matters most:
493
This is the stunning number of yards for an entire regular season for Alabama’s leading rusher. Look, we’re not trying to pick on Jam Miller, a senior who’s been through the wars in a Crimson Tide uniform. The battle scars have been as real and raw as ever this season for Miller, who never really got a chance to have the season anyone envisioned back in the summer after he dislocated his collarbone during fall camp and missed the first 3 games of the year.
While that miniscule season yards total is a bit misleading, coming in only 9 games and not 13, Miller was never himself for any extended stretch this fall, managing just 1 100-yard game against Vanderbilt in early October. There was an anemic 4-game stretch from mid-October to mid-November when Miller combined for just 81 yards on 39 carries. You don’t even need a pencil to do the quick math — it’s about 2 yards per carry, and Miller only found the end zone 3 times in those 9 games.
Then he couldn’t make it to the SEC title game in 1 piece, getting injured again in the Iron Bowl and being seen on crutches that night at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It was a shame, too, because he actually had a rhythm going, rushing for 83 yards and averaging 5.5 yards per carry before the injury bug bit him once more. It was a lower leg injury, according to a report by ESPN’s Pete Thamel, and it sidelined him in Atlanta while the running game sunk to historic depths, managing minus-3 yards on the ground.
Naturally, Georgia’s defense pounced on the 1-dimensional Tide and cruised to a 3-touchdown victory. That Thamel report on the day before the SEC title game also proclaimed that Miller was expected to return for the postseason and that the injury wasn’t considered serious. That positivity appeared to be backed up on Monday by head coach Kalen DeBoer, who told reporters that he feels Miller has “got a really strong chance of being, not just available, but ready to go at a level he can compete and do some good things for us.”
It would be hard to imagine Alabama making any kind of Playoff run without those encouraging words from DeBoer coming true. In the regular-season home loss to Oklahoma a month ago, Miller had just 9 carries for 27 yards, so his return next week in Norman would guarantee nothing for the Tide except having the mere threat of their leading rusher back on the field in their most important game.
Which causes us to circle back to that number, 493, and the notion that Bama even making the Playoff with its leading rusher having less than 500 yards is a stunning accomplishment in itself.
65%
Crimson Tide kicker Conor Talty has made every last 1 of his extra-point attempts this season, all 44 of them, and that’s great and all. When Alabama has scored a touchdown in 2025, it has been secure in the knowledge that the sophomore will step up and boot that point after right through, with no issues. But the Tide haven’t always scored touchdowns, of course, and TDs can be a lot harder to come by in the Playoff against other elite teams.
That’s where the 65% comes into play. Take a wild guess what that 65% signifies? Yep, that’s Talty’s very shaky field goal percentage this season as Bama gets ready to hit the road for a first-round Playoff game in the very hostile environment of Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. It doesn’t necessarily guarantee failure on that first field goal attempt on Dec. 19, assuming Bama doesn’t pull a miracle and score all touchdowns against that stiff Sooners defense.
Talty could prance into Norman next week and pull off a primetime heroic kicking act. He could try 3 field goals and make all 3, including the game-winner to send Alabama to the quarterfinals against Indiana. That could happen, because field goal kicking can be such an inexact science and kickers can often be weird football creatures. But Talty’s percentage is what it is, and it’s not particularly good, with 2 of his 7 misses this season coming from the chip-shot territory between 20 and 29 yards.
He’s just 3 for 5 from that range, which doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, even if Kalen DeBoer and every one of his teammates professes supreme confidence in Talty. His 4-for-5 clip from 30 to 39 yards out is fine, but then there’s the 6-for-9 stat line from 40 to 49 yards, which is the clutch range of many kicks that decide games and, in next Friday night’s case, the fate of seasons.
Talty missed his only attempt this season from 50-plus yards out, which isn’t anything to really criticize, and he does have a long of 48 yards, so it’s not like we don’t know if he can convert from anywhere close to 50 yards. He has done it. But Bama has reached the spot where having a dependable kicker is pretty necessary, because you can hide a percentage like Talty’s during a long season filled with a lot of extra point attempts and no chilling moments that called for game-winning kicks.
But not now. And don’t forget in the home loss to the same Oklahoma team last month, Talty missed his only field goal try, having a 36-yarder blocked at the end of the first half. The final score was 23-21 Sooners, so do the math. At least right now, as the Playoff approaches, Talty’s field goal numbers just don’t add up.
212
Now, this is a number Bama fans can get behind. Because 212 is the anemic amount of total yards that Oklahoma managed against Kane Wommack’s defense on Nov. 15 in Tuscaloosa. Yes, the Sooners still won the game, and that’s all that matters, but giving up just a hair over 200 total yards on your home field is almost always a recipe for winning, especially for Alabama.
It wasn’t that day, only because Bama turned it over 3 times, paving the way for short fields that Oklahoma converted into just enough points to pull out a 2-point victory. That was so unlike this Tide team though. And if Alabama’s defense can even approach that same stat level on Dec. 19, after also holding OU to just 12 first downs, then the Tide have an excellent shot to break hearts in Norman and advance to the quarterfinals.
The oddsmakers see stuff like this, which is probably 1 of the reasons why Bama is a slight favorite, even on the road and in primetime. The Tide defense was still dominant against the Sooners, despite what the final scoreboard said, and that reality has got to be encouraging as the rematch nears in Norman.
3
Let’s make this 1 short and sweet, at least for Alabama, because the number 3 is 3 losses this season for the Tide after laying an egg in the SEC Championship Game. And despite those 3 losses, including the Week 1 fiasco against a Florida State team that would crash and burn at 5-7, Bama still squeezed into the Playoff field kicking and screaming.
Some would label it Bama bias, or SEC bias, but the Tide will roll into Norman on Dec. 19 as the first 3-loss team to qualify for the Playoff in the new 12-team format as a non-conference champ. And some would label that being gifted a new lease on life, with that clean slate and the opportunity to prove to everyone that you belonged in the Playoff all along.
In this 1 special case, 3 strikes didn’t mean you were out. Whatever its controversial Playoff berth looks like from the outside, Bama now has the chance to reach deep inside and try like heck to make sure that 4th loss of the season never arrives.
9
The saga of Ryan Williams’s sophomore season gone mostly wrong dragged Alabama down all fall but never knocked the Tide out. Because here Bama still is, with Playoff life and a chance to do something special despite Williams’s struggles. His regular season stat line of 42 catches for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns was extremely underwhelming, with all those drops included.
But Williams was particularly unproductive down the stretch, and that’s where the number 9 comes in, as in 9 combined catches in his past 5 games. So, not only did he not build on those 2024 numbers after a breakout freshman season, Williams will enter the Playoff with no individual momentum to turn it all around when it suddenly matters most.
The low point came in the Iron Bowl a few weeks ago, when Williams didn’t just not catch 1 pass, he wasn’t even targeted. Kalen DeBoer has said all the right things, that Williams prepares really well for each game and that there’s nothing to see here regarding his role, or lack thereof, in the Ty Simpson-led offense.
Can it really all suddenly change on Dec. 19? And if not, can Alabama expect to be playing for a title on Jan. 19?
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
