5 things that will determine whether Alabama can win at Mizzou
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Kalen DeBoer’s battle-tested crew has rocketed back up the rankings after statement wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, but there’s no time for Alabama to celebrate anything as it grinds through the teeth of the SEC gauntlet.
As satisfying as the past month has been for the 8th-ranked Crimson Tide, the reality is that Week 1 disaster at Florida State isn’t going away. That means the margin for error to make the College Football Playoff remains small while the weekly challenges remain large.
The 4-1 Tide continue to walk that tightrope, and in Week 7 here comes yet another ranked foe in Mizzou that would just love to throw some cold water on the momentum they’ve built. The 14th-ranked Tigers have plenty of momentum themselves right now, with a 5-0 record and a pair of transfer standouts in Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy who have taken Columbia by storm.
Mizzou is rested, coming off a bye, and right at home being right at home this season, having yet to leave Faurot Field. The Tigers boast a 15-game win streak at Faurot coming into Saturday’s noon ET kickoff on ABC, and here are 5 things that will determine whether Alabama can throw some cold water on that:
1. Can Kalen DeBoer solve those October road demons?
Yes, Kalen DeBoer already exorcised some of those road demons from last fall when the Crimson Tide won in Athens. It was simply a gigantic win for the team, the program as a whole and for DeBoer, who has a ton to prove in Year 2 in Tuscaloosa after the 9-4 flop in 2024. Only at Alabama could a 9-4 record be considered a flop, but that’s where DeBoer is, and the catcalls got worse after the Week 1 loss at Florida State.
But now we’re talking about a whole different animal. This isn’t late August in Tallahassee or late September in Athens. This is October, where the meat of the schedule slams you in the face and where DeBoer must be much better than he was the first time around. Last fall, October slammed DeBoer in the face like a tidal wave, and the good vibes of a 4-0 start went belly-up with 2 road losses in the state of Tennessee.
There was the stunner at Vanderbilt in early October and the bummer at Tennessee, when the Tide collapsed late in the fourth quarter. Suddenly, Bama was 5-2 and had 0 margin for error to make it back to the Playoff. Those 2 October road losses were what set the Tide up to fall short in December.
So, here we are again for DeBoer. It’s early October, and things have gone really well since the FSU fiasco. This is exactly the point where DeBoer needs it all to be different in 2025. A loss on Saturday in Columbia would put Bama in the same desperate position it was in last October and, well, Nick Saban made a habit of breaking other team’s hearts in October instead of his own fans’ hearts.
You can’t win national titles or even SEC titles amid the heart of your schedule in October, but you can certainly lose the opportunity to play for those titles in December and January. That’s what’s on the line for DeBoer and his team on Saturday.
2. Ty Simpson needs to be the better Heisman candidate
Yes, Bama’s first-year starting quarterback has already launched himself squarely into the Heisman discussion with a lights-out September that continued in last week’s victory over Vanderbilt. Simpson thoroughly outplayed Diego Pavia in a matchup of Heisman-contending quarterbacks, and now Simpson will see another Heisman contender on the other sideline in Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy.
Simpson and Hardy don’t play the same position, but they’re living the same meteoric rise to Heisman candidacy in real time, so they share that. On Saturday, they’ll share the same field in Columbia, and logic would tell you that whoever has the better game will dictate which team wins. Sometimes, it’s really that simple, and for Simpson it’s been steadiness, efficiency and strong decision-making that have gotten him where he is so quickly.
He’s thrown for 1,478 yards with 13 touchdown passes, and his 1 interception this season came last week. Simpson has also run for 2 TDs, with 1 of them turning into the game-winning points at Georgia. He’s proven himself to have the “it” quality that all winning quarterbacks possess, and while Simpson can’t defend the rampaging Hardy himself on Saturday, he can limit Hardy’s carries by controlling pace and time of possession.
Hardy has rushed for at least 100 yards in all 5 of Mizzou’s games this season and, aside of a Week 1 whitewash of Central Arkansas when he still got right to 100 yards on just 10 carries, Hardy has been fed plenty. In the past 4 games, he’s gotten 25, 22, 22 and 24 carries, respectively, and Alabama needs to try like heck to keep that number under 20 on Saturday.
Simpson can make it happen without making a single tackle, and if he does then Bama has a great shot to get to 5-1.
3. Can Kane Wommack keep dialing up second-half success?
It’s been a heck of a turnaround for a defensive unit that got shredded by FSU for 230 yards rushing in Week 1. Since then, Wommack’s defense has risen from the dead. It pitched a shutout against Louisiana-Monroe — and shutouts are hard to come by no matter who the opponent is — then allowed 14, 21 and 14 points, respectively, in the wins over Wisconsin, Georgia and Vanderbilt.
One of the best signs of a defense’s progress is its performance in the 2nd half of games, and in that area the Bama D has been absolutely sensational to start SEC play the past 2 weeks. It held Georgia to 7 points in the second half and 0 in the fourth quarter, in primetime and in Athens, and it was even better last week, keeping Vandy off the scoreboard in the final 2 quarters in T-Town. That’s a first-class way to lock down games late in the rugged SEC.
What about locking down Ahmad Hardy? That might not be possible, but Wommack’s defense gets stronger as the game goes on, at least lately, and that means they’re thriving in winning time. Hardy will likely get his, because he’s that good, but he also hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near Bama’s quality. If that quality continues to rise as the stakes do after halftime, then Hardy will need a lot of help to keep Mizzou unbeaten.
4. Jam Miller needs to duplicate what he did to Vanderbilt
After being ineffective — and probably a little out of rhythm — in his season debut against Georgia in Week 5, a menacing snapshot of the 2024 Miller appeared last week against Vanderbilt. Miller averaged a little over 6 yards per carry in a 136-yard bust-out performance that had to be a sigh of relief for him and a breath of fresh air for the running-challenged Crimson Tide.
Miller showed that old burst, too, during his 20-yard touchdown run in the final seconds that had to feel really therapeutic for the senior. This was what Miller envisioned during the entire offseason before dislocating his collarbone in fall camp, and this was what Bama needed to navigate the SEC this fall and get back to the Playoff.
Well, guess what? The Tide are going to need it again on Saturday, this time in enemy territory, because a second helping of that Miller keeps Ahmad Hardy off the field and keeps that frenzied Faurot Field crowd in check. This isn’t a call to Miller to outgain or upstage Hardy, who just happens to lead college football in rushing. It’s a call to Miller to continue where he left off against Vandy.
Because performances like that at home are exactly what wins big SEC games on the road in October.
5. Mizzou needs to feel that steep step up in competition
There’s a reason a 1-loss Alabama team is favored on the road against an undefeated, ranked Mizzou team, and it’s not because it’s Alabama. The Tide have already faced 3 foes in their first 5 games who are currently ranked, so dealing with a ranked Mizzou team on the road won’t be a culture shock.
For Mizzou? That’s a whole different story. The Tigers haven’t played any ranked teams, they haven’t even played a road game yet, and they had to stage fourth-quarter rallies to outlast Kansas and South Carolina. Now, the Jayhawks are an old rival, and rivalry games are usually grueling, and the Gamecocks were ranked the week before playing Missouri.
This doesn’t mean Mizzou isn’t still a really good team. It just means the Tigers, whose other wins are against FCS team Central Arkansas, Louisiana and UMass, are about to take a serious step up in competition on Saturday. Alabama needs to make Mizzou feel the full reality of that, early and often, and keep driving the point home throughout.
To do anything less would be letting these Tigers off the hook. Remember, Alabama will be walking that tightrope on Saturday, and it really can’t afford to fall.
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
