It’s time for Week 7 of the college football season.
We’re back with 5 more money line upset picks this week. Last week, this column went a disappointing 1-4 — shoutout to Jake Dickert and Wake Forest for getting us on the board. We’ll make some adjustments and aim for a profitable showing this week.
Upset predictions Week 7
Here are 5 upset picks along with the best price available from all the best sports betting apps:
Auburn over Georgia
Auburn lost 2 games in September and everyone seemed to give up on the Tigers. Auburn losing fit the preseason narrative around Hugh Freeze. Nevermind the fact that their losses were by 1 score on the road to teams (Oklahoma and Texas A&M) who are ranked in the top 6 this week. Auburn’s passing offense and passing defense have both been bad this year — I’ll acknowledge that. But the Tigers haven’t played a home game against a power conference opponent yet. Auburn is one of just 4 P4 teams who can say that. I don’t think we’ve seen the upper end of the Tigers’ range yet. Meanwhile, I haven’t been too impressed with Georgia. UGA’s front 7 is poor by its standards — the Bulldogs rank 107th nationally in tackles for loss and 116th in sacks. I think Auburn is being undervalued this week.Â
Pick: Auburn +145 (via bet365)
Kansas State over TCU
It’s time to buy back in on Kansas State. The Wildcats have been the second unluckiest team in the country so far this year, per Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy formula. K-State has come a long way since early in the year when it was losing to Iowa State and Army. The Wildcats’ 2-4 record is not representative of who this team is at this point. They almost beat Baylor on the road last week and now get to host TCU in Week 7. The Horned Frogs are dreadful against the pass and mediocre against the run. Kansas State’s offense has been excellent on the ground lately and I think that will continue this weekend at home against TCU. I also like fading Josh Hoover, who has a passer efficiency rating of just 130 in his career on the road against power conference opponents.Â
Pick: Kansas State +100 (via bet365)
Oklahoma over Texas
Based on what’s been reported by everyone from Pete Thamel to a local Chipotle worker, John Mateer is trending toward playing this weekend. But even if he doesn’t play, I still think Oklahoma is live to win this game outright. OU might have the best defense in the entire country and Arch Manning has struggled against every team he’s faced this year except for Sam Houston. Manning’s turnover-worthy play rate is 6.1%, per PFF, which is the third-worst mark nationally among quarterbacks with 150 drop-backs. The Texas defense is also great, but even it lost some luster with the way Florida was able to move the ball last weekend.Â
Pick: Oklahoma +115 (via BetMGM)
Maryland over Nebraska
Nebraska got away with one last weekend. The Huskers beat Michigan State by 11, but that game was essentially decided by a couple of Michigan State turnovers and special teams mistakes. The Spartans were virtually even with Nebraska from a success rate perspective. The Huskers have one of the worst rushing defenses of any team in the Power 4 and will now go on the road to play a Maryland team that nearly upset Washington in Week 6. The Terps got up to a 20-0 lead but their inability to run the ball left the door open for the Huskies to make a comeback. Given how bad Nebraska has been against the run this year, I’m not too concerned about that as a weakness for Maryland in this game. I think Maryland will keep Nebraska’s offense in check. Maryland’s defense is 10th nationally in EPA-per-play this season, according to Game on Paper. This should be a low-scoring game and I think Maryland will have enough offense to pull off the upset.Â
Pick: Maryland +224 (via Underdog Sportsbook)
Michigan over USC
I like this as a matchup play. USC’s passing offense looks elite on paper, but Jayden Maiava has mostly feasted on group-of-5 opponents. Even the power-conference teams USC has faced this year have extremely poor secondaries — Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue all rank 90th or worse in pass defense efficiency. USC’s defense also can’t stop the run (123rd in rush defense success rate, per Game on Paper), which is not ideal when you’re preparing to play Michigan. The Wolverines may even be able to throw the ball this week — USC is dealing with a cluster of injuries at cornerback. USC also has a road trip to Notre Dame on deck.
Pick: Michigan +114 (via DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
