After a bad 2025 start for Arch Manning, here’s reason for optimism heading into SEC play
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Sloppy, inconsistent and bizarre are all fair words to describe the 2025 start for Arch Manning.
The well-documented mechanical issues have been at the forefront of a disappointing first month of the season for the Texas quarterback. That gave us the sloppy performance at Ohio State, an inconsistent performance against San Jose State and a bizarre chorus of 3rd quarter boos against UTEP. Oh, and then there was the weird taunting touchdown celebration against Sam Houston State, which Manning admitted after the fact that his mom didn’t exactly enjoy.
“Yeah, felt good to get back in the end zone. Probably a little much there [in staring down the defender],” Manning said (H/T CBS Sports). “My mom was pretty mad about that. Little immature, but I think it’s some built-up frustration for the past few weeks.”
That sort of sums up where Manning is at as SEC play begins on Saturday with a trip to 1-3 Florida. But in a battle of preseason quarterback darlings who have gotten off to disappointing starts, it’s Manning and not DJ Lagway who has more reason for optimism.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way with that not-so-bold statement heading into a game in which No. 9 Texas is a touchdown favorite in The Swamp (via BetMGM). Lagway’s health has been an issue all offseason, and it didn’t help that he began the bye week in a walking boot. Manning’s health was questioned by media after San Jose State and answered in a bizarre way by Steve Sarkisian — the “I don’t know what faces you make while you’re using the bathroom” response remains a head-scratcher — but his injury concerns don’t appear to be nearly as glaring as Lagway’s. After all, Lagway through 4 games has just 1 completion on a pass that traveled 20 yards downfield. Manning has 10 such completions, which is tied for 3rd in the SEC and nearly half as many as Quinn Ewers had in 14 games last season.
Speaking of Ewers, let’s remember another key reason for Texas optimism. Sarkisian might be scrutinized for his red-zone play calling, but don’t forget that he guided Ewers to a semifinal berth even though he was playing through a torn oblique. That meant only 34% of his passes traveled 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (Jackson Arnold was at 29% at Oklahoma). It was a limited offense, and Texas still made it work.
This year, the Texas offense doesn’t have downfield limitations. It’s been limited by the short passing game, which is usually a staple of the Sarkisian offense. Manning’s 69% adjusted completion percentage on throws 0-9 yards looks even worse when you realize that it’s been essentially an inefficient run play at 3.6 yards per attempt (Ewers was at 83% adjusted completion percentage with 7.9 yards/attempt on those throws). That 69% is 17th among 18 qualified SEC quarterbacks and the 3.6 yards per attempt of 0-9 yards ranks dead last in the conference. It’s even behind Lagway.
Why will that improve? Manning had an adjusted completion percentage of 92% on those throws in 2024. That was No. 1 in the SEC among qualified quarterbacks (min. 25 such attempts). In other words, he’s already proven he can make those throws with accuracy and allow his pass catchers to pick up yards after the catch. Mechanical adjustments — if they’re made — will be felt in that area. And if he doesn’t improve there, one would think that Sarkisian is smart enough to recognize the other ways that the Texas offense can move the chains.
The quarterback run game figures to be leaned on more in SEC play
That’s been understandably limited in the first part of the season. Having 10 quarterback runs per game against San Jose State and UTEP isn’t something Texas should need to do in order to beat that type of competition. Sarkisian knows all too well that it’s a long season and preserving a quarterback’s health is easier said than done. He watched Ewers go down with multi-game injuries in all 3 seasons as a starter. The last thing Texas wanted was to expose Manning to unnecessary hits before conference play got rolling, even if it would’ve elevated the floor of an oft-stagnant offense.
One would also think that Manning will have more freedom to scramble in SEC play, which has been a strength in a limited sample size. Manning has 26 rushing attempts, only 8 of which have been scrambles. He only ranks No. 12 among scramble attempts, but he’s No. 4 among SEC quarterbacks with 9 missed tackles forced.
Manning’s mobility can continue to be a strength of the Texas offense. He’s only been sacked 3 times so far behind a new-look Texas offensive line even though he’s been pressured on the second-highest percentage of his dropbacks among SEC quarterbacks at 35.9%. He’s been good at buying time with an average of 4.2 seconds to throw when pressured (No. 10 in FBS), and while pressure will inevitably ramp up in SEC play, it’s encouraging that Manning has a 7.1% pressure-to-sack rate, which is the second-best in the SEC behind only Joey Aguilar (Lagway is at 25%).
A key area to get Texas out of this early-season offensive rut will be staying on schedule and not taking those big negative plays. Manning only passed for 2 3rd-down conversions on 3rd-and-7 or longer this year. That explains why Texas is just No. 103 in FBS with a 35.9% 3rd-down conversion rate. What’ll improve that? The presence of Texas’s top 2 running backs, Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter, both of whom are reportedly on track to return to Saturday’s SEC opener after they suffered multi-week injuries (H/T Chip Brown).
That’s been a bit overlooked nationally with the conversations about the disappointing start for the Texas offense. In addition to a banged-up backfield in the first month, not having the promising Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley for the first 4 games (lower-leg injury) wasn’t ideal, and neither was being without DeAndre Moore Jr. (concussion) against UTEP when Manning and the Longhorns offense got those aforementioned boo birds from the home crowd (Moore looked the part with 78 yards in his return against Sam Houston State).
Add it all up and it’s fair to say it wasn’t the offensive start that Texas envisioned when it earned its first preseason AP Poll No. 1 ranking in school history.
But the good news is this Texas defense is still going to give the offense a chance every week
It’s the same point I made all offseason. That is, Manning’s margin for error will be higher because of how reliable the Texas defense will be. We saw that play out in the opener at Ohio State. Manning was completely ineffective for 3.5 quarters, yet he still had a chance to tie the game late because Texas held Ohio State to 3.8 yards/play in Columbus.
Heading into SEC play, Texas ranks No. 1 in the FBS with 3.6 yards/play allowed and No. 2 in the FBS in scoring defense with 7.8 points/game allowed. Yes, 3 of those games came against lesser competition, but Ohio State also averaged between 5.8-9.9 yards/play in its 3 non-Texas games.
(On the flip side, let’s also not ignore the fact that Ohio State allowed 1 touchdown to Manning and 1 combined touchdown in the 3 other games it played.)
The Longhorns have faced 14 Power Conference foes since the start of 2024, and only 1 of them exceeded 24 points in regulation against that unit. That was last year’s eventual-SEC champ Georgia, whose offense benefitted from 4 Texas turnovers and had 1 touchdown drive longer than 34 yards. Even eventual-national champ Ohio State was technically held to 21 points by the Texas defense (Jack Sawyer’s 81-yard fumble return didn’t go against the defense).
That type of defensive success appears to have carried over into 2025. It’s a quarterback’s best friend. For all the talk about what Manning needs to do in order to get out of his own head, the single-most comforting thought should be that he’s got a defense that can bail him out if he makes those mistakes. Very few quarterbacks have that type of luxury, perhaps with the exception of Julian Sayin with aforementioned Ohio State and John Mateer at Oklahoma. Even fellow struggling preseason Heisman Trophy favorites like Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik don’t have defenses that are quite as dominant as Texas.
Lagway has one of the better defenses in the sport, but he certainly doesn’t have a defense like the one he’ll see on Saturday. Something tells me we’ll get plenty of reminders of that.
Perhaps we’ll also get plenty of reminders that Manning is still very much a work in progress and nowhere near the way-too-early No. 1 overall pick that many projected him to be by season’s end. It’s easy to forget that this is Manning’s first career SEC road start. If it’s equal parts sloppy, inconsistent and bizarre, it won’t shock anyone at this point.
But don’t be surprised if now is when some built-up frustration over the past few weeks turns a frustrating start into a mom-approved finish to 2025.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
