Alabama Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Tide in 2025

If you thought it would feel just like the Nick Saban era, you probably didn’t appreciate the G.O.A.T. enough.

That’s not meant as a slap in the face to Kalen DeBoer, who established himself as one of the elite coaches in the sport and earned the right to succeed Saban in Tuscaloosa. But the odds that DeBoer was going to step into Alabama and lead a run to a national title appearance were slim, especially after it was exposed to the 30-day transfer window after Saban’s departure.

Of course, when you beat the No. 1 team in America and become the top-ranked squad, all of that goes out the window. It took 4 losses, 3 of which were to unranked teams, in order for reality to truly set in. The Saban era — one that saw the Tide go unbeaten against unranked foes from 2008-20 — was in the rearview mirror.

Does that mean Alabama won’t compete for championships under DeBoer? Not at all. After all, DeBoer is 15-3 vs. AP Top 25 teams and he’s 6-1 vs. top-10 teams. But a yearly standard of playing for a national title — a game that Alabama reached 9 times in a 13-year stretch — needs some slight tweaking.

So what’ll it take for Alabama to get back to a place that it hasn’t been to in each of the last 3 seasons? Let’s take a look into the 2025 Crystal Ball.

For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.

Let’s start with Alabama:

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The Ryan Grubb-Kalen DeBoer reunion will be ___________.

“A breath of fresh air.”

After Grubb turned down the Tide each of the last 2 seasons, his 1-and-done season as the Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator led to him taking the Alabama OC job to reunite with DeBoer. Go figure that Grubb was brought in to clean up a lot of the issues that plagued the Jalen Milroe-led Alabama offense. Milroe, of course, is now trying to become a starting quarterback with the Seahawks.

More relevant for Grubb is how he manages to call plays and develop Alabama’s quarterback room. If he can do that at an elite level, Ty Simpson will have the Tide in an SEC championship hunt, and the offense will start to look more like the units that lit up scoreboards when Grubb and DeBoer were together at Washington. Alternatively, Simpson could struggle to hold down the starting job and one of DeBoer’s recruits — either Austin Mack or Keelon Russell — will get their shot.

The good news for whoever emerges at quarterback is that Ryan Williams is still a thing. As a 17-year-old (in case you hadn’t heard), he had the most receiving yards of any true freshman SEC wide receiver since 2015. The College Football ’26 cover man might not have finished his freshman campaign the way that it started, but improved quarterback play could turn him into the best version of himself. If Grubb and DeBoer can turn Williams into what Rome Odunze was for Washington in 2023, look out.

If there’s comfort for the Alabama offense in 2025, it’s that Grubb will take over a unit that’s got talent galore at receiver with veteran Germie Bernard and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, as well as a heralded offensive line that’s headlined by preseason All-American left tackle Kadyn Proctor. Does that mean Alabama’s offensive inconsistency will fade upon Grubb’s arrival? No, but this is exactly what DeBoer envisioned when he got the job.

If Grubb can’t push the right buttons with this group, there’ll be legitimate questions about DeBoer’s long-term potential in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama’s defense was a bit of a late-season revelation in Year 1

Nobody talks about how the Tide had their best scoring defense since 2017. That’s because the Vanderbilt game and the odd second halves against Georgia and South Carolina told a different tale. As a result, it would be negligent to call it a vintage Alabama defense in Year 1 under Kane Wommack, and it would be ambitious to say that’s imminent in Year 2. Shoot, Alabama doesn’t have a first-team preseason All-SEC selection on that side of the ball for the first time since … ever? Yeah, ever (H/T Creg Stephenson).

But is there reason to believe that it’ll be one of the best returning units in the sport? You bet. Alabama has key returning contributors at every level. Six of Alabama’s starters did get preseason All-SEC love, just not first-team love. Tim Keenan III and LT Overton will lead a front-7 that’ll ideally have a healthy Deontae Lawson, who suffered a torn ACL in the Oklahoma game last year, but is expected to be at full-go for the start of 2025.

The steadying force of the Alabama defense figures to be in the secondary, where the likes of Domani Jackson, Keon Sabb and late-season star Bray Hubbard should lead one of the best defensive backfields in America. That group was No. 2 in the SEC in opposing QB rating, and it picked off 17 passes while allowing just 6 yards per attempt.

Alabama’s defensive upside will be defined by how well it can consistently stop the run. Last year, that was a mixed bag (the Oklahoma disaster proved costly). Alabama allowed 3 200-yard rushing performances, which never happened in the Saban era. With all of the Tide’s experience, one would think that area will progress in Year 2 with Wommack.

If it does, a Playoff berth and a shot at a national title should be in play.

Alabama’s Win Total Over/Under

Odds (via BetMGM)

• Over 9.5 wins: -125
• Under 9.5 wins: +105

Game-by-game predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Tide:

Week 1: at Florida State (W)

Sorry, Thomas Castellanos. Something tells me that Alabama will find ways to stop you in a post-Saban world. While there’s certainly a level of familiarity that Gus Malzahn has with facing Alabama, that’s strictly the uniform. Last I checked, Malzahn will be operating his first game at the controls of FSU’s offense. A new-look unit figures to have better days than it had last year — that’s not saying much — but Alabama wins in the trenches. Simpson’s first career start isn’t perfect. It is, however, enough for a double-digit road victory in Tallahassee.

Week 2: vs. Louisiana-Monroe (W)

Drink every time the 2007 game is mentioned. If you’re feeling really frisky, drink every time Alabama scores a touchdown. On second thought, don’t do that to your poor liver. It’s a long season.

Week 3: vs. Wisconsin (W)

It’s worth noting that Wisconsin losing Tyler Van Dyke turned what could’ve been a relatively competitive game into a laugher by the end of the first half. This time around, the well-traveled Billy Edwards Jr. is in over his head. The Alabama pass rush forces 3 turnovers in the first half in what turns out to be another blowout by halftime. A pair of Jam Miller touchdowns puts a stamp on the second lopsided Alabama-Wisconsin game in as many seasons.

Week 4: Bye

The Tide get their first bye early. It comes at a good time, but it might not be enough.

Week 5: at Georgia (L)

I know about Kirby Smart‘s 1-6 record vs. Alabama. I also know that Alabama struggled on the road in Year 1 under DeBoer. At a place that hasn’t seen a home loss at night since 2009 (!), the home team plays a more complete game than last year. This is a different feel for the Alabama defense than anything it faced so far. Instead of frustrating a still-developing Gunner Stockton, the Tide play on their heels against a balanced Georgia attack. The Nate Frazier-Josh McCray duo does the heavy lifting. Alabama finds itself playing catchup and is unable to pull a Saban-like comeback against the Dawgs. The SEC race gets a bit clearer by night’s end.

Week 6: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

It’s the showdown we’ve all been waiting for — Diego Pavia vs. Alabama, Part II. While Williams and Co. haven’t quite earned the right to call themselves “sledgehammers,” on this day, Alabama is ready. Pavia does his best early on to rally the troops in a back-and-forth affair, but ultimately, the Alabama offensive line is too much for Vanderbilt. A turnover-free day for Simpson, who doesn’t get sacked, fuels Alabama to a revenge win against the Dores.

Week 7: at Mizzou (W)

If Alabama is sleeping on this matchup after the way things played out, this could feel like a very 2024-ish loss. Mizzou’s identity should frustrate a team that feels like going through the motions. It wouldn’t surprise me if this stayed tight early, perhaps with Mizzou even going into halftime with a slight lead thanks to a big start from Ahmad Hardy. But unlike last year when Alabama couldn’t navigate those closer-than-expected starts, a much more disciplined team shows up in the second half. Bernard hauls in a pair of touchdown passes and the Tide fend off upset-hungry Mizzou.

Week 8: vs. Tennessee (W)

Josh Heupel has done a lot of remarkable things during his time in Knoxville, but winning in a hostile road environment isn’t a box that he’s checked yet. This is a bad matchup for the new-look Tennessee offense. A turnover-prone group against an opportunistic secondary is a rough combination on the road. Multiple non-offensive scores set the tone for Alabama. After a few slow starts in a row, the Tide look much more prepared from the jump. For the 5th consecutive meeting in Tuscaloosa, Alabama wins by double digits.

Week 9: at South Carolina (W)

This quietly turned into one of the most entertaining SEC games of 2024. That became the case because it was a coming out party for LaNorris Sellers. It also helped that the Gamecocks’ loaded defensive line put Alabama’s offense behind the sticks. A Dylan Stewart matchup on Proctor will be what draws the most interest, but this is where Alabama’s addition of Grubb will truly pay off. Simpson gets rid of the ball quickly and uses the draw game effectively to keep South Carolina’s defense guessing. Sellers is tasked with putting on his cape a few too many times, and Alabama wins the type of battle that it would’ve lost a year ago.

Week 10: Bye

The annual off week ahead of the LSU game gives the Tide a chance to rest up after a tough 5-game start to the SEC season.

Week 11: vs. LSU (L)

Wait a minute. Didn’t we watch DeBoer and the Tide roll in Death Valley last year? What makes me think that LSU is capable of going into Bryant-Denny and pulling a 180? The Tigers have a clue how to stop the run. Specifically, they don’t have to prepare for a mobile quarterback like Milroe. The Year 2 Blake Baker defense isn’t a top-10 unit, but it shows throughout 2025 that it can rise to the occasion. That includes a trip to Tuscaloosa, wherein the pressure Simpson sees proves to be too much. For the first time since 2021, DeBoer suffers a home loss. LSU’s national title push is as real as ever.

Week 12: vs. Oklahoma (W)

There are certain secondaries that’ll struggle with John Mateer’s ability to extend plays, and it’ll be the difference. Against Alabama, that won’t be the case. A year removed from running all over Alabama in Norman, the Sooners run into a much more disciplined Tide defense. And offensively, Alabama isn’t nearly as lost as it was a season ago. Instead of letting Playoff hopes slip through their fingers, the Tide get some much-needed revenge to fend off loss No. 3.

Week 13: vs. Eastern Illinois (W)

Jimmy Garoppolo ain’t walking through that door.

Week 14: at Auburn (W)

One mustn’t ever sleep on some Jordan-Hare magic, especially when Alabama has everything on the line. But where will Auburn be at by this point? Will it be set to move on to its 4th coach of the 2020s? Will it be in a position to play spoiler? That’s certainly possible, but if we’re being honest, Alabama is the team that’s had Jordan-Hare magic in recent memory. Take that for what it is. I take it for Auburn being a team that hasn’t shown yet that it can close tight games. That plays out again. After Auburn is 15 minutes away from putting Alabama firmly on the Playoff bubble, a 4th quarter explosion from Williams is the difference. He scores a pair of long touchdowns in a 200-yard game to all but lock in a Playoff berth for Alabama.

2025 projection: 10-2 (6-2), 4th in SEC

The Tide finish 1 win better than they did in 2024. Is it enough for a Playoff spot?

12-team Playoff berth? Yes

I swear that I didn’t just copy and paste my projection from last year. That projection proved to be a touch optimistic. Maybe I’m a bit pessimistic compared to others on Alabama this year by not having the Tide reaching Atlanta. That’s fine. I’m bullish on who Alabama will be week to week. Losing to my 2 SEC Championship Game participants (Georgia and LSU) would hardly be an indictment of DeBoer’s Year 2 potential.

At 10-2, hosting a home Playoff game would be on the table. For my money, that should be the goal with the talent that returns. I’m not sure that Simpson needs to play at an All-SEC level in order for that to happen. This can be a defense-first team who can withstand slow starts, which I expect to be a midseason issue that Alabama works through.

But if this plays out, what’ll the conversations be about DeBoer? It’ll be in the eye of the beholder. Alabama being a top-10 team from wire to wire would probably prevent DeBoer skeptics from being too loud, but a blowout loss in a home Playoff game would change that tune in a hurry.

All DeBoer can ask for after a rocky Year 1 is to have a seat at the table in Year 2. The crystal ball grants Alabama that opportunity.