The 2025 Iron Bowl is almost here.
Alabama will be looking for its 6th consecutive Iron Bowl victory on Saturday when it travels to face Auburn on the Plains. This is a meaningful game for both teams, but especially for the Crimson Tide. A win would mean Alabama has secured a spot in the SEC Championship Game — and likely in the College Football Playoff.
Alabama vs. Auburn preview
Let’s break down this matchup:
Alabama football notes
- Like many SEC teams, Alabama played an FCS opponent last weekend. The Crimson Tide crushed Eastern Illinois 56-0.
- Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has seen his efficiency wane throughout the season. After a strong September, Simpson ranks just 41st in passer efficiency rating since Oct. 1 (min. 100 attempts).
- Dealing with pressure has been especially problematic for Simpson. He has 5 lost fumbles over that span as well.
- Per PFF, here are Simpson’s numbers against pressure this season: 43-of-77 for 522 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. He’s also taken 19 sacks. Per PFF, he has an offensive grade of 48.6 against pressure this season. That’s tied for 37th among QBs with at least 100 drop-backs under pressure.
- Alabama’s running game has been dreadful this season. Per Game on Paper, Alabama ranks 130th in rushing success rate. Jam Miller is Alabama’s lead running back but has been woefully inefficient with a 32% success rate and -0.15 EPA per rush.
- Germie Bernard and tight end Josh Cuevas have emerged as excellent pass-catching options alongside star Ryan Williams. Isaiah Horton is also a top target for Simpson and is perhaps Alabama’s best red-zone threat.
- However, Cuevas is not expected to play in this game due to injury. Bernard was initially listed as questionable this week but is expected to feature vs. the Tigers.
- Alabama’s defense is borderline elite. The Crimson Tide rank 16th nationally in defensive success rate, per Game on Paper.
- Alabama has not allowed 5 yards per play in any game since it played Tennessee on Oct. 18. The Tide haven’t allowed 6+ yards per play since Oct. 4 (Vanderbilt).
Auburn football notes
- Freshman quarterback Deuce Knight got the start against Mercer last week and exceeded all possible expectations. He scored 6 total touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing) against a Mercer team that’s regarded as one of the top FCS squads this year.
- However, veteran Ashton Daniels is expected to get the start in the Iron Bowl. Daniels is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt for Auburn this season in limited snaps.
- Auburn’s rushing offense has been excellent this season. The Tigers rank 20th in EPA-per-rush, per Game on Paper.
- However, much of that efficiency stems from Jackson Arnold, who is no longer Auburn’s starting quarterback. Running back Jeremiah Cobb has been good this year, though, with a 45% success rate and 0.07 EPA per rush.
- Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton are 2 of the best receivers in the country but have suffered from poor quarterback play this season. Still, they’re capable of making plays downfield against Alabama’s secondary.
- Auburn’s secondary has not been good in 2025. The Tigers are 116th nationally in pass defense success rate entering Week 14.
- However, Auburn has arguably the best rushing defense in the entire country. It ranks No. 1 in rush defense EPA heading into the Iron Bowl.
Iron Bowl predictions
Here are 2 picks for this game via Underdog Fantasy, one of the best DFS apps on the market:
Ty Simpson higher than 31.5 pass attempts
I think Alabama will be throwing the ball a lot in this game. The Crimson Tide have struggled to run it all year and Auburn has one of the best rushing defenses in the country. I think Ty Simpson is an accurate quarterback when he has time to make decisions. Auburn’s defense hasn’t been quite as effective in recent weeks and I think we’ll see the Tide be able to move the ball consistently through the air on Saturday.
Jeremiah Cobb lower than 90.5 rushing + receiving yards
I just don’t see Cobb getting higher than this projection. He earns plenty of usage out of tihe backfield as a runner, but he’s not much of a threat in the passing game. He only has 9 catches all season. I expect Auburn will be playing from behind for a lot of this game and may not be able to give Cobb the volume of carries it would take for him to approach this projection.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
