Alabama will travel to Georgia this weekend for a high-profile matchup between 2 of the SEC’s best programs.
Although the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs have met often in the postseason in recent years, this is a rare trip to Athens for Alabama. The last time these teams met on Georgia’s campus was back in 2015. Alabama leads the all-time series 44-26-4.
Alabama vs. Georgia spread
Here’s what the spread, total and money line markets look like for this game, per the latest college football betting lines:
Here’s what you should know before betting on this game:
Alabama fact sheet
- Ty Simpson has been arguably college football’s best quarterback so far this season. He has a 186 passer efficiency rating through 3 games, which ranks third nationally among quarterbacks with at least 55 pass attempts vs. FBS opponents.
- Simpson has completed 41 of his last 46 pass attempts dating back to the start of the ULM game in Week 2.
- Alabama’s running game has struggled mightily this year, with Kevin Riley being the only running back to clear 50 rushing yards so far. However, starting running back Jam Miller is expected to make his season debut on Saturday after recovering from an upper body injury suffered in training camp.
- Somewhat surprisingly, Germie Bernard has been Alabama’s most efficient receiver so far this season, not sophomore phenom Ryan Williams. Bernard is averaging almost 15 yards per target this season.
- Defensively, Alabama will get a big piece back this weekend in Tim Keenan III. Keenan is the Tide’s best run disruptor but hasn’t played yet this season due to injury.
- Alabama’s secondary has been solid this year, ranking 18th nationally in pass defense success rate, according to Game on Paper.
- The run defense has been decidedly less effective. Alabama’s rush defense EPA numbers are mediocre at best, but the Tide do have a respectable rush defense success rate (35%). That’s likely due to Alabama having already given up 4 rushing touchdowns this year. It’s not an issue with explosive runs — the Tide have only conceded 2 runs of 20+ yards on the year.
- Per PFF, Alabama’s highest-graded defenders so far this year are safety Bray Hubbard and linebacker Justin Jefferson.
Georgia fact sheet
- Gunner Stockton has been solid this year in his first campaign as a starter, albeit not as prolific as Simpson. Stockton’s passer efficiency rating vs. FBS opponents this year is 166.7, which ranks 14th.
- Stockton does have arguably the most memorable play of the college football season so far — a perfect 4th-and-long touchdown pass on the road against Tennessee to London Humphreys to give the Bulldogs a chance late in that game.
- Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA per play metric is wholly unimpressed with Georgia. The Bulldogs rank 31st in that category, sandwiched between Pittsburgh and Nebraska. That’s not disqualifying — UGA was 45th at the end of the 2024 season despite winning the SEC championship — but it is a bit of a red flag.
- UGA’s passing attack has not been explosive to this point in the year. Georgia ranks 13th in the SEC in passing plays of 10+ yards. The Bulldogs are near the bottom of the league in plays of 20+ and 30+ passing yards as well.
- Defensively, Georgia’s secondary has been a mess this season. The Bulldogs rank 101st in pass defense success rate. A lot of that damage was done by Joey Aguilar and Tennessee, but Marshall and Austin Peay both averaged over 6 yards per pass attempt, too. That’s not elite by any means, but it’s not great either. For context, last season Georgia held Clemson, Kentucky and Tennessee Tech to a combined 4.2 yards per attempt in the first 3 games of the season.
- The issue seems to be pass rush related. Georgia has only recorded 4 sacks all year, which ranks outside of the top 100 nationally. That stat could be a little misleading, as Marshall and Austin Peay only attempted a combined 44 passes in their games vs. UGA.
- However, per PFF, none of Georgia’s edges have a pass rush win rate higher than 7%. PFF also says UGA also only pressured Joey Aguilar on 23.7% of drop-backs — a pretty low number, all things considered. Syracuse pressured Aguilar at a higher rate (31%) back in Week 1.
Alabama vs. Georgia best bets
I really like Alabama’s offense in this game. Ty Simpson has a ton of momentum coming into this game and I think he’ll be more comfortable in a road environment this time having already experienced it in Tallahassee back in Week 1. The Crimson Tide scored 30 points in the first half against Georgia a year ago and I think their offense is better this year. The passing attack, at the very least, looks like it should be considerably better. Georgia’s secondary has been pretty questionable this season and it did not look good at all in the first half against Tennessee a couple of weeks ago.
Pick: Alabama first half team total over 13.5 points (+108 on FanDuel)
Gunner Stockton doesn’t necessarily have the reputation of a dual-threat quarterback, but his running ability is clearly part of UGA’s plan in goal-to-go situations this year. In Georgia’s toughest game of the year vs. Tennessee, Stockton earned 3 carries inside the 10-yard line (and scored once). Only Josh McCray had more goal-to-go attempts vs. the Vols. Stockton has scored a rushing touchdown in 2 of his 3 games so far this season. Given that Nate Frazier is considered to be Georgia’s most likely touchdown scorer by the books (+105), I think this prop is mis-priced.
Pick: Gunner Stockton anytime TD (+125 on ESPN Bet)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
