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Alabama vs. LSU. Georgia vs. Kentucky: Here’s what you need to know about Statement Saturday
By Chris Wright
Published:
The SEC East will be decided this afternoon in Lexington.
The SEC West could be all but over later tonight in Baton Rouge.
High stakes dominate the SEC’s biggest storylines in Week 10. Here’s what you need to know:
1. LSU has to survive the first round
Despite Ed Orgeron’s brave front, he knows his Tigers can’t get into a shootout against Alabama.
The Tide are averaging an absurd 54.1 points per game. They’re ahead of pace to break every SEC scoring record. Tua Tagovailoa is averaging a TD pass every 6.08 attempts. He has 5 pass catchers averaging more than 17 yards per reception.
Joe Burrow has thrown as many TD passes (6) as Alabama backups Jalen Hurts (5) and Mac Jones (1). He’s thrown one more interception (3) and the three Bama QBs combined (2, both from Hurts).
So, no, there is no chance LSU is beating Alabama 45-42 on a last-second Cole Tracy field goal tonight.
The Tigers have only one chance: Somehow, against odds, logic and game film, keep this game in the 20s. (Then Tracy could be the trump card.)
To do that, success has to come early.
Alabama has pummeled its first eight opponents from the opening bell. Their foes have all but tapped out after the first quarter.
These numbers tell all:
LSU's challenge: Keep it close early.@AlabamaFTBL has scored:
8 TDs on 1st possession (each game)
4 TDs on 2nd possession
6 TDs on 3rd possession
7 times: Scored at least 2 TDs on 1st 3 possessions
4 times: Scored TDs on 1st 2 possessions
3 times: Scored TDs on 1st 3 possessions— Chris Wright (@CWrightSDS) November 2, 2018
If it’s anything worse than 10-3, LSU will be in a hole from which it will not recover.
2. DBU vs. WRU is can’t-miss
LSU leads the country with 14 interceptions. Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown any.
If you’re a Tigers fan hoping that an early pick might rattle the Bama sophomore, remember this: 2 of Tagovailoa’s 3 TD passes in the National Championship Game last year came after Georgia picked him off. He rebounded quite well.
The ball is going to be in the air tonight. He’s only thrown 30 passes in a game once in his career, but I expect him to go above that tonight. Force the issue, and force the Tigers to keep pace.
The question is: How much trust does Dave Aranda have not only in his DBs but also his LBs to stay locked in isolation against Bama’s fleet of fast-footed receivers. Remember, Devin White not only made plays, he helped make calls. He’ll miss the first half.
You can’t bring pressure and maintain a security blanket on the back end. Alabama has 5 pass-catching weapons, each capable of slipping one tackle and taking it the distance.
Two reasons Tagovailoa nobody has intercepted Tua this season: He’s thrown plenty of quick-hitting slants and he has rarely thrown into double coverage. Somebody usually is open. Can LSU catch them after the catch? That’s going to be the key tonight.
3. But don’t sleep on Alabama’s D, either
There has never been a Nick Saban squad like this, where the offensive firepower was so superior to the defense.
The lazy narrative is that Bama’s defense can be had. Maybe in practice, but not on Saturdays.
Bama leads the SEC with 26.0 sacks. LSU will try to establish the run against a defense that has allowed just 3.54 yards per carry and 3 rushing touchdowns all season.
The only way to attack this defense is through the air, but for as much credit as Burrow receives for being gritty, he hasn’t shown yet that he’s capable of a 28-for-42, 312-yard, 3 TD kind of performance. In fact, half of his TD throws came against Ole Miss, the worst defense in the league.
LSU is built to beat last year’s Alabama team. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Alabama changed quarterbacks. And that changed everything.
4. Reminder: Georgia ran for 381 yards against Kentucky last year
Jake Fromm threw 14 passes for a pedestrian 123 yards a score in Georgia’s 42-13 blowout last year in Athens.
Georgia whipped Kentucky up front and wore them down. A close game — Georgia led 21-13 in the third quarter — became boulder rolling downhill as Georgia’s trenches took over.
Sound familiar?
Whereas Alabama has been delivering first-round knockout after first-round knockout, Georgia’s offense has trusted that those repeated body blows ultimately would result in a big second-half push.
It’s no surprise that Georgia has scored most of its points against SEC teams in the second half (124-91). They’re built to wear teams down. They have a stable of running backs who stay fresh. One tired tackle attempt in the fourth quarter can result in 7 points quickly.
Mark Stoops has worked hard to rebuild Kentucky’s lines. They’re better. But are they good enough?
Whether the Wildcats’ can win their first SEC East title hinges on that answer being yes.
5. 5 key questions for the rest of the SEC
1. Can Jordan Ta’amu throw for 3 TDs against South Carolina? The Gamecocks have only allowed 6 passing TDs all season. Jake Fromm, Kyle Shurmur, Kellen Mond and Drew Lock combined to throw for 3.
2. Will Florida bounce back? The Gators’ biggest goals are gone, but they still have a chance to post a 10-win regular season for the first time since 2015. That starts by beating Missouri today.
3. Can Drew Lock throw for 2+ TDs against an SEC team? He hasn’t yet in 2018. In fact, he’s been shut out in 3 of the 4 SEC games this season; he threw one against Alabama.
4. Can Jarrett Stidham throw for 2+ TDs against an SEC team? He’s only managed it one time this season — against Tennessee. Texas A&M is a logical breakout candidate, however. The Aggies have allowed 15 TD passes this season; only Missouri and Ole Miss have allowed more.
5. Will Feleipe Franks throw for more TD passes than Drew Lock today? Franks enters the game with 16 TD passes, the same number as Lock. They’re pare of a 4-way tie for second in the SEC, and I’m not sure which total is more surprising. But Franks’ total is the only pleasant surprise.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
