Mizzou will host Alabama on Saturday in what is arguably the biggest game in the SEC this weekend.
The Tigers will be looking to remain undefeated while Alabama will be desperate to not pick up its second loss of the year already. There’s plenty on the line for both teams as they each have very strong College Football Playoff aspirations for this season.
Alabama vs. Mizzou predictions
Before we dive into the picks, here’s what you should know about both teams:
Alabama football notes
- Alabama is 4-1 and has been largely dominant since losing to Florida State back in Week 1. Three of the Crimson Tide’s 4 victories since then have been by double digits, with the lone exception being a 3-point win over Georgia in Athens.
- Ty Simpson has established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Over Alabama’s 4-game winning streak, Simpson is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt and has an 11-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio.
- Simpson has had success despite a disappointing year so far for Ryan Williams. The sophomore has registered 6 drops already this year per PFF (he was tagged with 7 drops all of last season).
- Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton have both stepped up to help make up for Williams’ struggles. Both Bernard and Horton are currently averaging more than 0.7 EPA per target, according to CFB-Graphs.
- Alabama running back Jam Miller missed the first few games of the season but has made an immediate impact in the Tide’s backfield.
- Defensively, Alabama has been vulnerable to conceding explosive rushing plays. Per Game on Paper, the Tide have a defensive explosive rush play rate of 8.8%.
- Alabama has been stingier against the pass. The Crimson Tide rank 48th nationally in pass defense success rate, per Game on Paper. They’re also 34th in pass defense efficiency rating.
- The strength of Alabama’s defense is its safety room. Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb are Alabama’s highest-graded players so far this year, per PFF.
Mizzou football notes
- Missouri is 5-0 this season but the Tigers have yet to face a ranked opponent in 2025. They also have not played a road game this year.
- Beau Pribula has put up good numbers to start the year. He leads the SEC with a 75.9% completion percentage and is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Pribula has also been mobile, rushing for 184 yards (excluding sacks) so far in 2025.
- However, much of what Pribula has accomplished this year has been on underneath routes. His average depth of target (7.5 per PFF) ranks 14th out of 16 qualified SEC quarterbacks. Pribula has only attempted 11 passes this season that have traveled 20+ yards in the air, which ranks 17th among SEC passers. To his credit, he’s completed 5 of them for 164 yards and has registered 4 “big-time throws” on those attempts, per PFF.
- Mizzou’s star on offense is Ahmad Hardy. Entering Week 7, he has nearly 100 more rushing yards after contact (551) than any other SEC running back has total. The next closest is Mississippi State’s Fluff Bothwell at 465 for the year. However, he’s relatively untested against power-conference opposition. The former ULM transfer has played 4 games against P4 teams in his career. He averages 90 rushing yards per game in those contests compared to 134 rushing yards per contest against G5 teams. His per-carry rushing average also drops from 6.5 to 4.7 in those spots.
- Kevin Coleman Jr. is Mizzou’s No. 1 receiver by a long shot. He has a 91% catch rate on a team-high 43 targets this year. A remarkable 34 of those 43 targets have come within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage, so he’s been more of a short-yardage target for the Tigers. Marquis Johnson leads Mizzou in targets from intermediate and deep depths (13).
- Mizzou’s defensive profile is elite across the board. The Tigers are 5th in defensive success rate. They’ve been especially good against the pass where they rank 17th in pass defense EPA, according to Game on Paper.
- Despite Mizzou’s relatively weak strength of schedule overall, the Tigers have played a couple of strong passing offenses in Kansas (12th passer efficiency rating) and South Carolina (45th)
- Mizzou’s edge rushing tandem of Zion Young and Damon Wilson could challenge the Crimson Tide up front. Together, they’ve accounted for 43 total pressures and 29 quarterback hurries so far this year.
Alabama vs. Mizzou picks
Here are a couple of picks for this game on Underdog Fantasy:
Ahmad Hardy longest rush higher than 20.5 yards
Alabama has been prone to giving up explosive running plays this year. The Crimson Tide have given up about 1 20-yard rush per game to start the season and will now be facing one of the most prolific and punishing running backs in the nation. No one breaks tackles like Hardy does. I think we’ll see him break free for a big run or 2 in this contest.
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Ty Simpson lower than 291.5 pass yards
I think Ty Simpson might be the best quarterback in the country, but this projection is too high. Mizzou’s secondary has been very good this season and I think it will hold its own against an Alabama team that could be a bit tired after back-to-back big games. I also think Missouri’s pass rush might have an advantage off the edge in key moments. I think we’ll see Alabama try to run the ball more often if it can, which should result in a little bit less volume for Simpson.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
