Arkansas Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Razorbacks in 2025
Published:
I thought Sam Pittman was a dead man walking heading into Year 5. I wasn’t alone.
There are plenty of people who assumed that the Arkansas coach’s days were numbered as he entered 2024 on everyone’s hot seat. And just as Pittman did upon arrival, he exceeded expectations. A 3-win improvement fended off hot-seat discussions, and Pittman earned a Year 6.
What does that mean, though? At a place that had 1 AP Top 25 finish in the Playoff era, there are plenty of restless fans who want to see a higher ceiling. Getting to a bowl game isn’t good enough. Pittman knows it. Getting the program into Playoff contention would change the tone of the Pittman era.
As he knows all too well, that’ll be easier said than done.
For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.
So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:
Let’s continue with Arkansas:
There’s an obvious positive and an obvious negative
Let’s start positive. The positive is that Arkansas returns a veteran starting quarterback in Taylen Green. On top of that, he’ll have the benefit of Year 2 with Bobby Petrino, and perhaps the defense can improve with the underrated Travis Williams. A ton of SEC teams would love to have the benefit of both returning coordinators with a returning starting quarterback. On paper, that should be the foundation of some obvious improvement.
In reality, there’s another daunting fact about Arkansas’s personnel.
It lost 42 players to the transfer portal. As crazy as the portal has gotten, that’s not what you expect to see from a team that kept its head coach. There’s a ton of roster turnover on both sides of the ball. If Arkansas doesn’t have some big-time hits with its 31 incoming transfers, that’ll be curtains for Pittman. It’s a completely different feeling than what most Year 6 coaches enter a season with, especially after a 3-win improvement.
Stability was what Arkansas sought in the post-Chad Morris era. Pittman’s presence has certainly provided that, but from a personnel standpoint, the turnover has been off the charts. With a schedule that features nothing but 10-win teams in Games 3-6, this group won’t get a whole lot of time to figure things out. A 2-4 start would be disastrous.
But let’s get back to that obvious positive with a question …
Can Taylen Green be special?
That’s what Arkansas’s season comes down to. If Green can be special, can he navigate what’s arguably the most difficult schedule in the country? That’s what it’ll come down to. What’ll that look like? In short, it’s cutting down on the mistakes. With a new-look group of pass-catchers — the top 7 leaders in receptions from the 2024 team are gone — Green’s turnover-prone ways will be put to the test.
These numbers can’t repeat in 2025:
- 12 fumbles (most in SEC)
- 0 TD passes vs. teams who finished ranked in AP Top 25
- 10 turnover-worthy plays when kept clean
- 32 sacks taken
As much as I’m a believer in Williams, Arkansas won’t have a good enough defense to overcome those things. It’s fair to wonder if Green just is who he is after 3 seasons as a starting quarterback at the FBS level. It’s also fair to wonder if he’s just scratching the surface of the player that he can become. There’s no denying that a mobile, 6-6 quarterback like Green has a unique skill set to prepare for. He can extend plays and attack downfield at a high level.
Any path to Arkansas keeping its head afloat includes Green becoming the best version of himself.
Arkansas’ Over/Under Win Total
Odds (via BetMGM)
- Over 5.5 wins: +120
- Under 5.5 wins: -145
Game-by-game predictions
Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Hogs:
Week 1: vs. Alabama A&M (W)
Positive days shouldn’t be taken for granted with a schedule like that. In other words, Arkansas fans should enjoy starting the season on the right note.
Week 2: vs. Arkansas State in Little Rock (W)
Shoutout, Butch Jones. Also, shoutout to these athletic directors for setting up an opportunity for these programs to meet for the first time. That’ll end with the Hogs taking care of business in Little Rock.
Week 3: at Ole Miss (L)
A pair of Year 6 coaches have been a lot closer to one another than you’d think. Lane Kiffin took a 3-2 advantage last year, but this could be interesting because Ole Miss could still be trying to figure things out with a team that ranks in the SEC last in percentage of returning production. But it’s troubling to think about what Austin Simmons at quarterback and that Ole Miss offense can do to an Arkansas team that has an unproven group of pass-rushers. In a Luke Hasz revenge game, he scores twice against his former team in an Ole Miss victory.
Week 4: at Memphis (W)
Nobody will view this game as an important benchmark because of what awaits the following week, but Memphis is one of the 2-3 top Group of 5 programs remaining. Fresh off an 11-win season wherein the Tigers handed Mike Norvell a little revenge by beating Florida State in Tallahassee, this is a massive game for Memphis’s Playoff hopes. But as it turns out, it’s also a massive game for the Green-O’Mega Blake combination. That duo fuels Arkansas with chunk plays in the passing game. Against a Memphis secondary that finished in the bottom 15 in America against the pass, Green has a performance reminiscent of his last visit to Memphis when he carved up Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl.
Week 5: vs. Notre Dame (L)
There’s never an ideal time to prepare for Jeremiyah Love, but on the heels of 2 physical games, Arkansas isn’t prepared for the preseason All-American. Unlike last year when the Hogs stymied decorated Oklahoma State back Ollie Gordon II, Love finds all the gaps in the defense. Green is unable to navigate the Marcus Freeman-led Irish defense, and Arkansas is unable to take down a top-5 opponent like it did a year earlier against Tennessee. Blame it on the early kickoff start.
Week 6: Bye
A beaten-up Hogs squad gets a week off before another brutal stretch begins.
Week 7: at Tennessee (L)
One of the reasons why Arkansas knocked off Tennessee in Fayetteville was because the Vols didn’t have the established offensive identity that the early-season success suggested. In a hostile atmosphere, Tennessee couldn’t find answers. This year, it’s Arkansas who looks like it’s still searching for its offensive identity. A Tim Banks defense in Neyland Stadium feasts off teams that are figuring out who they are. Green’s lack of a go-to receiver to move the chains proves costly while Tennessee’s multi-faceted rushing attack does the heavy lifting in a 2-touchdown win.
Week 8: vs. Texas A&M (W)
Wait, isn’t this an automatic win for Texas A&M after falling to Arkansas just once since joining the SEC? Well, a change in venue is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Hogs. In fitting fashion for the herky-jerky A&M season, the Aggies lay an egg in Fayetteville. A year removed from Green getting swallowed whole by the Aggies’ defensive front, he protects the football. That’s everything for Arkansas in this matchup. Marcel Reed does everything in his power to overcome a 2-touchdown deficit early, but Green delivers his most impressive SEC performance to date in order to get Pittman a much-needed victory.
Week 9: vs. Auburn (L)
For a pair of teams battling for coaches with questionable futures, this game means a ton. While there’s a reluctancy to trust Hugh Freeze in a close game, this time, he’s got the quarterback who makes smart decisions late. A year after trying to hurdle the entire Auburn defense, Green’s turnover woes surface at the worst time. He coughs up the ball 3 times, 2 of which happen in the second half. Auburn capitalizes on a pair of short fields and finishes a weird, back and forth game that doesn’t make much sense. Arkansas dominates the total yards battle but Auburn’s defense makes the plays needed late to pull out a huge road win.
Week 10: vs. Mississippi State (W)
Instead of setting offensive football back decades like they did the last time they met in Fayetteville, this turns into a shootout. Green and Blake Shapen take turns knifing through the secondary and making it look like a “last team with the ball” matchup. That’s the home team. Specifically, that’s late-season Braylen Russell, who isn’t a fun guy to tackle under normal circumstances, much less after the Bulldogs face Florida and Texas. Defensive depth issues are evident on both sides, but Arkansas musters enough late stops to win a game that smashes the “over.”
Week 11: Bye
The Hogs need this idle week in the worst way ahead of one of the toughest 2-game stretches any team will face in 2025.
Week 12: at LSU (L)
It’s hard to imagine Arkansas flipping the result with how lopsided this felt last year in Fayetteville. It’s worth noting that it wasn’t exactly a vintage Garrett Nussmeier game, but by this point in the season, Arkansas’s defense won’t have the answers for the Tigers’ passing attack in Death Valley. Trey’Dez Green plays the best game of his young career with his first 100-yard game, and a porous Razorbacks secondary looks like it’s in over its head from the jump.
Week 13: at Texas (L)
Facing Nussmeier and Arch Manning on the road in consecutive weeks isn’t an ideal development for an Arkansas defense that desperately lacks depth by November. Manning does his damage early, and for the second consecutive year, Green can’t navigate a loaded Texas defense. Anthony Hill Jr. terrorizes Green en route to SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors with a pair of forced turnovers. Texas closes in on a Playoff berth while Arkansas’s bowl hopes are hanging by a thread.
Week 14: vs. Mizzou (L)
By now, the worst-kept secret is that Arkansas is moving on from Pittman. It’s perhaps a different feel than when Bret Bielema got the boot on the field at the end of the Mizzou game, but the vibe of the regular-season finale doesn’t reflect the fact that Arkansas is fighting for bowl eligibility. Mizzou is the wrong offense to face for a team with a foot out the door. The ground-heavy approach fuels the Tigers. For the 9th time in 10 years, Mizzou wins the Battle Line Trophy.
2025 projection: 5-7 (2-6), 14th in SEC
The Hogs finish with 2 wins less than they had in 2024. Is it enough for Pittman to keep his job?
12-team Playoff berth? No
More importantly, will Pittman keep his job? I say he doesn’t. I hope I’m wrong. I’m a Pittman fan, and if his time is indeed up, it should be remembered for what he did to get the program back on its feet after Chad Morris left it for dead.
A 5-7 season would force the Hogs back to the drawing board. It would be a tough pill to swallow after the Pittman era started with such promise, but reality is that most coaches don’t last beyond 6 years in the SEC.
Is that imminent? Perhaps that’s not an accurate outlook. Lord knows Pittman isn’t going to treat this season like that. I wouldn’t expect a new-look roster to approach it that way, either.
But if there was ever a time for Pittman to pull out some of the early-2020s magic, now is it.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
