Arkansas will head to Knoxville on Saturday for its first game since Bobby Petrino took over as interim head coach.
Both the Razorbacks and Volunteers were idle in Week 6 and are on equal rest for this game. Tennessee has played back-to-back nail-biters in SEC play with recent contests against Georgia and Mississippi State both going to overtime (with a beatdown against UAB in between). Tennessee split those games but will be looking for a more decisive win against Arkansas on Saturday.
Arkansas vs. Tennessee spread
Tennessee is a significant favorite over the Hogs at Neyland Stadium, per the latest college football betting lines. Here’s a look at the up-to-the-minute odds:
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet:
Arkansas football notes
- Arkansas is coming off a bye and has a new-look coaching staff. Bobby Petrino is now Arkansas’s interim head coach and he’s already made several changes to the Hogs’ defensive staff.
- Taylen Green has been excellent at quarterback this season. He has a career-best passer efficiency rating of 155.1 and is also averaging 8.2 yards per carry.
- Despite carrying a 3-game losing streak into this contest, Arkansas’s offense leads the SEC in yards per play at 7.7.
- No team in the SEC has scored touchdowns at a higher rate in the red zone than Arkansas this season. The Razorbacks have scored touchdowns on 17 of their 19 red-zone trips this year (0 made field goals). However, Arkansas is 10th in red-zone attempts in the SEC.
- Arkansas is averaging about 7 plays of 20+ yards per game against FBS opposition this year. That puts the Hogs near the top of the national rankings in that category.
- Defensively, Arkansas has been absolutely dreadful this season. The Razorbacks rank 122nd in EPA-per-play defense and 112th in success rate defense, per Game on Paper.
- Arkansas does create some havoc. The Razorbacks are 45th nationally in tackles for loss.
- Late downs have been a massive issue. Arkansas is allowing opponents to convert nearly 48% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 127th nationally.
- Arkansas opponents are averaging almost 7.8 yards per play on 3rd and 8 or longer. The Razorbacks have conceded a first down on 46% of such plays, which ranks fifth-worst in the country. The national average is 24.4%.
Tennessee football notes
- Tennessee is 4-1 this season with its only loss coming against Georgia.
- Arkansas upset Tennessee in Fayetteville last season, so this is something of a revenge game for the Vols.
- Tennessee is also coming off of a bye this week. The Vols last played in Week 5 when they survived an overtime scare against Mississippi State on the road.
- Tennessee out-gained Mississippi State by more than 2 yards per play in that game, but still needed 2 defensive touchdowns to even force overtime in Starkville.
- Tennessee’s offense has been great this year overall, but explosive plays remain a concern. The Vols rank in the 37th percentile in explosive play rate, according to Game on Paper.
- Joey Aguilar has thrown 5 interceptions this season, but there’s data to suggest he’s been unlucky. PFF credits Aguilar with just 1 turnover-worthy play this season. Aguilar’s receivers have dropped 15 passes this season, which PFF grades out as the most in the SEC.
- Chris Brazzell II is the top playmaker to know. He has 8 touchdowns already this season. Brazzell has caught 5 passes in the red zone this year, 4 of which he’s taken into the end zone. Braylon Staley leads Tennessee with 6 red-zone receptions, but none have gone for touchdowns.
- On defense, Tennessee has been a big disappointment so far this season. The Vols have been without starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson, which has no doubt had an impact on the Vols’ pass defense.
- There’s been speculation that McCoy could return to the lineup for the Arkansas game, but Josh Heupel cautioned against that assumption on Monday. His status for this week remains uncertain.
- The data on Tennessee’s rushing defense is a bit contradictory. The Vols are only allowing 2.8 yards per carry (6th in the SEC) but rank 87th in EPA-per-rush allowed and 115th in rushing success rate defense.
- Both SEC opponents the Vols have faced this year (Georgia and Mississippi State) averaged 3.6 yards per carry in those matchups. UGA and Mississippi State also scored 3 rushing touchdowns apiece against Tennessee.
Calling all Tennessee residents: Interested in betting on the Vols this weekend? Here’s SDS’s full breakdown of all the best Tennessee betting apps available in 2025!
Arkansas vs. Tennessee picks
I’m taking Tennessee’s team total under this week. The Vols are certainly capable of scoring 42+ against this Arkansas defense, but I think we can expect at least a slightly better performance from the Hogs in this first week with a new coaching staff. Tennessee’s lack of explosiveness should help to keep this total down. It’s also a lookahead spot for the Vols — they’re going to Tuscaloosa in Week 8.
Pick: Tennessee team total under 41.5 (-120 on Fanatics)
Although I’m skeptical of Tennessee’s explosiveness, I think the Vols will have the longest touchdown in this game. The price at DraftKings seems to be a favorable one to me. Taylen Green has not been great as a deep-ball passer this season, particularly against decent opposition. Arkansas does have an explosive running game, but Tennessee has really limited big rushing plays this season. I think Tennessee will probably score 4 or 5 touchdowns and it’s highly possible one of them will be on a Joey Aguilar deep ball.
Pick: Tennessee to have the longest touchdown (-165 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
