As we appreciate Ty Simpson’s emerging greatness, a deeper NFL Draft question lingers
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With Ty Simpson, I can’t help but wonder.
With each clutch throw that Simpson makes in his first season as Alabama‘s QB1, surely there are NFL folks taking note. He checks a ton of boxes. The physical measureables are there at 6-2, 208 pounds, he’s the son of a head coach (and it shows), he’s been the driving force of an offense that lacks an elite ground game, he became the first SEC quarterback to ever beat 4 consecutive AP Top 25 foes without any extra rest and he’s shown he can make every throw on the field, though the intermediate passing game (10-19 yards) is where he’s been at his best with a 130.4 NFL quarterback rating.
(Literally as I was writing this, I went to PFF to look up those advanced stats and saw that Simpson was on the home page going No. 1 overall in Trevor Sikkema’s post-trade deadline mock draft.)
Simpson has been even better than the most optimistic preseason projection, which is why he’s among the current Heisman Trophy favorites heading into the second weekend of November. For some, the notion of an Alabama quarterback being “must watch” doesn’t make sense considering that Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe all finished in the top 6 of the Heisman (Hurts finished No. 2 after he transferred to Oklahoma in 2019).
But Simpson is indeed must watch for a variety of reasons. His emerging greatness needs to be appreciated by those who love watching a modern passing attack like the one Ryan Grubb and Kalen DeBoer are running at Alabama. Simpson should also be appreciated by college football purists who love watching a guy stay at the same school and wait behind multiple quarterbacks while enduring a head coaching change.
A question lingers, though. It’s the one I can’t help but wonder about.
Is Simpson going to be the exception to the new unwritten rule about avoiding 1-year starters in the first round in the NFL Draft?
And if not, would coming back to school with an inevitably large price tag make sense?
We’re not here today to make that decision for Simpson. He’s proven that he doesn’t need any help at making decisions in high-pressure situations. In fact, that very element could be the thing that allows him to overcome the “1-year starter” knock that’ll loom with those NFL Draft discussions.
Just in case you haven’t been following this trend, take a look at the first-round quarterbacks selected in the last decade who were only 1-year starters in college:
- Mitch Trubisky, 2017
- Kyler Murray, 2019
- Dwayne Haskins, 2019
- Trey Lance, 2021
- Mac Jones, 2021
- Anthony Richardson, 2023
That’s not exactly an inviting group. Murray is the only one of that group who got a second contract with the team who drafted him, and most recently, there’s speculation that Murray was given a soft benching in favor of Jacoby Brissett.
None of those 6 guys attempted 600 passes at the college level. Simpson likely won’t hit 600 college pass attempts unless he returns for Year 5 — he’d need to average 36 passes for the rest of the season if it included 16 games — which would be his last year of eligibility. And sure, while there were guys in that group like Trubisky, Murray and Jones who waited until Year 4 of college to become starters, this is about meaningful reps.
But what’s unique about Simpson as a first-year starter is that he’s already gotten a ton of meaningful reps in high-leverage situations.
- Leading by 1-7 points: 54-for-81 (66.7%), 679 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, 157.5 QB rating
- Tied: 41-for-54 (75.9%), 478 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 177.1 QB rating
- Trailing by 1-7 points: 16-for-23 (69.6%), 222 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 193.7 QB rating
- Total: 111-for-158 (70.2%), 1,379 yards (8.7 yards/attempt), 13 TDs, 1 INT
That’s 158 pass attempts when the scoring margin is 7 points or less. Just for a little perspective, Richardson had 184 such passing attempts in his lone full season as QB1, and Jones had 189 such passing attempts during that entire 13-game season he had as Alabama’s QB1. For all we know, Simpson will have both of those numbers surpassed by game’s end on Saturday against LSU, and he’ll finish with a number closer to the late Haskins, who had 323 such attempts as QB1 in 2018.
Whatever draft discussion exists with Simpson should factor something like that into the equation. Let’s also remember that Simpson could end up starting in 16-17 games this season. That’s closer to 1.5 seasons. Shoot, Simpson could wind up facing 8-9 AP Top 25 finishers if Alabama makes a run to the College Football Playoff National Championship. That’d be as many as Lance (0), Trubisky (4) and Haskins (4) combined. Of course, one could argue Josh Allen faced 2 AP Top 25 finishers in his entire college career and life turned out just fine for him.
It’ll be in the eye of the beholder with Simpson. He’ll undoubtedly receive some sort of draft feedback in December or January. Perhaps the 1-year starter element and his 86 drop-backs under pressure (No. 10 in SEC) will create at least some slight skepticism from the next level that’ll have some wondering if a nice payday to return to Alabama makes more sense. Of course, if Simpson does that, he’d have to consider the college-level trend that’s taken shape in the NIL era.
Being a decorated returning QB hasn’t exactly gone well in this era of college football
It wasn’t long ago that Simpson saw what that was like with Milroe. Granted, that included a significant scheme/coaching change. Simpson, in theory, wouldn’t have to worry about that. Then again, neither did Garrett Nussmeier, Cade Klubnik or Drew Allar, all of whom were draft-eligible quarterbacks who returned to school and have since hurt their respective NFL Draft stocks with disappointing 2025 seasons. Go ask 2024 Carson Beck or 2024 Quinn Ewers about that, too.
Any world in which Simpson returns would include an overwhelming amount of hype/NIL opportunities/preseason accolades. Managing that — even for a coach’s son who seemingly says and does all the right things — could still prove to be a challenge.
It’s the other side of the coin that needs to be remembered when anyone suggests that Simpson returning to school and getting $4 million is the “safe” decision. There’s risk in that, too, especially for someone who doesn’t have the luxury that a post-2024 Beck had with another year of eligibility.
To Simpson’s credit, he’s done a masterful job of assessing risk and making plays in meaningful moments. It’s not just that he has the 20-1 TD-INT ratio. PFF has him for turnover-worthy plays on just 2.2% of his drop-backs, which ranks No. 2 in the SEC and No. 13 among Power Conference quarterbacks (min. 150 drop-backs). You could say the degree of difficulty lessens with a receiver room as talented as Alabama’s, but watch him and you’ll realize that he’s not just benefitting from favorable passing-game surroundings; he’s making that offense go.
Add it all up and these are a fascinating couple of months ahead for Simpson. Who knows what it entails both with college and NFL Draft accolades? Lord knows someone who has 8 career college starts is hardly a finished product. Simpson would be the first person to tell you that. His self-criticism has felt like a chip off the old Nick Saban block, but amid his emergence is a prevailing thought.
He’s absolutely earned the right to have all eyes on him.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
