Well, that wasn’t the plan.
The plan was for Auburn to take a step in Year 2 that showed it was past the Bryan Harsin era. Sure, it was going to be heavily reliant on underclassmen playing like upperclassmen, but at least they were recruited by Hugh Freeze. With a favorable schedule, surely there was no way to expect a step back instead of a step forward.
But yeah, the plan went up in smoke when Auburn recorded 3 pre-October losses at Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time … ever. That’s not the type of history that Freeze signed up for. He signed up to be the guy who turned around a stagnant offense that could give Auburn a chance against anyone in the SEC. While the Tigers did field their first top-40 passing offense since 1997, to say that Freeze has checked that box would be a major overstatement.
Can he check that box in a pivotal Year 3? And more importantly, will it be enough to earn a Year 4? We’ll find out soon enough.
For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.
So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:
Let’s continue with Auburn:
Auburn brought in another Power Conference QB who needed a fresh start … and it’ll determine everything
Jackson Arnold’s well-documented development under Freeze will be pivotal for all the obvious reasons. Can Arnold cut down on the issues that plagued him last year? That’s a complicated question for someone who entered the 2024 season as Oklahoma’s starter, but was benched before halftime of his first SEC game. How much of that was because of OU’s injuries at receiver? Or was a constantly rotating offensive line the issue? Could it also have been poor play-calling?
It’s somewhat irrelevant now. More relevant is that someone who struggled in his first season as a college starter got a fresh start. Freeze talked about how much he loved Arnold as a high school recruit, but more pressing is whether he can tap into a skill set that felt like an afterthought in 2024. Arnold was last among qualified SEC quarterbacks with a 26.7% adjusted completion percentage on throws 20 yards downfield (min. 20 attempts), and in addition to taking an SEC-high 36 sacks, he had the highest pressure-to-sack rate (27.3%) in the conference.
That’s not ideal. It’s also not ideal that Freeze hasn’t exactly been known for having quarterbacks shine in Year 1 in his system.
The good news for Arnold is that his surroundings should be favorable. Auburn returns preseason first-team All-SEC receiver Cam Coleman, and it brought in heralded Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton. The receiver room could be the most talented that Auburn has ever had, which is a totally different story than the group that Freeze inherited. As long as that group can avoid the almost impossible wave of injuries that Arnold’s Oklahoma squad had, there’s reason to believe that he’ll get some help.
The bar is low after the Payton Thorne experiment didn’t work out. Arnold will have to do more than just exceed it to get Auburn back on track.
This defense has top-15 upside
I know it was an easy group to overlook because when you’re 5-7, well, it comes with the territory. Nobody paid attention to the fact that Auburn’s defense allowed more than 24 points just once in the first 10 games of the season (that’s taking away non-offensive touchdowns). But there are plenty of reasons why Auburn should be set up for a big year on that side of the ball. That starts with having a proven, game-wrecking edge guy in Keldric Faulk. He’s got first-round NFL Draft buzz for all the obvious reasons. Most guys aren’t recording double-digit tackles for loss in the SEC before they’re even draft-eligible. Faulk checked that box.
He’ll be the headliner, but it’s a talented secondary that should have plenty of teams on notice. Jay Crawford and Kaleb Harris both showed real promise as true freshmen starters in the defensive backfield, and quarterbacks had a 58.0 QB rating (NFL) when targeting Kayin Lee in coverage. There’s a lot to like on the back end after Auburn allowed just 12 passing touchdowns all season.
The question will be if Auburn can find the alphas in the middle of the defense if things aren’t going well. That’ll determine the upside of this group, which quietly finished No. 18 in FBS in yards/play allowed. There’s a world in which Auburn has a top-15 scoring defense in America with more offensive help and fewer short fields to defend.
If that world becomes a reality, Auburn should find itself in plenty of tight games in 2025.
Auburn’s Over/Under Win Total
Odds (via BetMGM)
- Over 7.5 wins: -175
- Under 7.5 wins: +140
Game-by-game predictions:
Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for Auburn:
Week 1: at Baylor (W)
In that standalone window on Friday night of Week 1, Arnold has the ability to put on a show in a return to his home state. It might be a Dave Aranda-coached defense, but the Bears haven’t had a top-60 scoring defense since 2021. That bodes well for an Auburn offense that should have some explosive plays in the holster. It might take a bit for Auburn to settle in on the road, but I expect the offensive line to keep Arnold upright. That’s the most important thing he needs in his Tiger debut. Transfers Singleton and Horatio Fields both hit pay dirt in an impressive start for the Tigers’ new-look offense.
Week 2: vs. Ball State: (W)
Auburn learned the hard way not to sleep on Group of 5 games at home, but a week removed from a solid offensive debut, the decorated group of receivers goes off. A 2-0 start has Auburn climbing within the AP Top 25.
Week 3: vs. South Alabama (W)
If Gio Lopez had stuck around South Alabama, I would’ve had this one circled. Instead, he left for UNC and so did South Alabama’s slim hopes of pulling off a massive in-state upset.
Week 4: at Oklahoma (L)
In what’s arguably the juiciest breakup battle of the 2025 slate, the home Sooners get the last laugh with Arnold. It’s not that John Mateer looks significantly better in that battle. It’s more that Brent Venables knows the exact way how to fluster his former quarterback. That means R Mason Thomas and that OU pass rush lives in the Auburn backfield. After 3 games in which Auburn does a banner job of keeping its signal-caller clean, Arnold’s turnover-prone ways surface at the worst possible time. OU pulls away with a 27-17 win in Arnold’s return to Norman.
Week 5: at Texas A&M (L)
Revenge is on the mind of Texas A&M after last year’s 4-overtime thriller ended with a dropped 2-point conversion attempt. Going into Kyle Field and pushing around the A&M offensive line isn’t for the faint of heart. It’s too much of a challenge for Auburn, who watches both Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens dominate after they were out for last year’s matchup. This is a reminder that as talented as Auburn is defensively, it lacks the glue guys needed to stop the bleeding at times. Arnold is forced into too many obvious passing situations and costly sacks allow A&M to take care of business with a 2-touchdown victory.
Week 6: Bye
Following 2-straight SEC losses, the Tigers get a chance to regroup ahead of yet another brutal stretch of games.
Week 7: vs. Georgia (L)
People don’t talk about the fact that since Auburn dismantled No. 1 Georgia in that 2017 game, the Dawgs have completely dominated the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. Eight consecutive victories turns into 9. Why? Kirby Smart‘s team gets back to making quarterbacks miserable. It’s opportunistic, it’s deep and it’s simply a nightmare matchup for 60 minutes, especially against an inconsistent quarterback like Arnold. Along with Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb, Auburn can’t run the football. In what’s becoming a familiar trend for the Tigers, a competitive start turns into a deflating finish. Gunner Stockton finds Dillon Bell and Cash Jones for second-half touchdown passes that silence the Jordan-Hare faithful.
Week 8: vs. Mizzou (L)
If you thought an 0-3 start to SEC play sent Auburn fans into a frenzy, wait until you tell them that the worst might not be over. Last year, Mizzou beat Auburn with a quarterback that spent part of the game in the hospital. This year, Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy will continue the Auburn misery by gashing the home Tigers. Arnold is forced to relive last year’s devastating finish against Mizzou. He’s benched in the midst of a disastrous day in favor of fellow transfer Ashton Daniels, who provides a late boost, but it’s not enough to overcome Eli Drinkwitz‘s squad.
Week 9: at Arkansas (W)
For a pair of teams battling for coaches with questionable futures, this game means a ton. While there’s a reluctancy to trust Freeze in a close game, this time, he’s got the quarterback who makes smart decisions late. A year after trying to hurdle the entire Auburn defense, Taylen Green’s turnover woes surface at the worst time. He coughs up the ball 3 times, 2 of which happen in the second half. Auburn capitalizes on a pair of short fields and finishes a weird, back and forth game that doesn’t make much sense. Arkansas dominates the total yards battle but Auburn’s defense makes the plays needed late to pull out a huge road win.
Week 10: vs. Kentucky (W)
Zach Calzada revenge game?!? You bet. Unfortunately for the former Auburn and current Kentucky quarterback, he’s in over his head against a motivated defense. Auburn is fueled by a pick-6 and a fumble that sets up an easy scoring drive for Daniels and Co. It’s by no means a pretty day of offensive football, but for an Auburn team that’s desperate for wins any way that they’ll come, a 21-10 victory is nothing to scoff at.
Week 11: at Vanderbilt (L)
Diego Pavia against Freeze? Come on. I’ve seen this movie 3 times. That’s right. You have to include when Pavia beat Freeze’s Liberty squad with New Mexico State back in 2022, as well. Pavia didn’t set the world on fire in last year’s matchup, but he still made key plays with an injured leg to fuel Vanderbilt. This will mark the first time in their history that Pavia gets a home matchup against Freeze. So what’s the difference? Auburn can’t get off the field on 3rd down. That turns into Pavia’s confidence growing and he senses that he’s got Freeze on the ropes yet again. Auburn forces overtime with some late-game heroics by Coleman, but a missed Auburn kick and a Pavia walk-off touchdown hands Freeze his most painful loss to date.
Week 12: Bye
The Tigers’ second idle week gives Auburn brass a chance to evaluate the future of Freeze on The Plains.
Week 13: vs. Mercer (W)
All 3 Auburn quarterbacks see the field in what’s an exhale game of sorts after a long couple of weeks. Bowl eligibility is clinched, but a 5th consecutive losing season is still staring the Tigers in the face.
Week 14: vs. Alabama (L)
One mustn’t ever sleep on some Jordan-Hare magic, especially when Alabama has everything on the line. But where will Auburn be at by this point? Will it be set to move on to its 4th coach of the 2020s? Will it be in a position to play spoiler in the Iron Bowl? That’s certainly possible, but if we’re being honest, Alabama is the team that’s had Jordan-Hare magic in recent memory. Take that for what it is. I take it for Auburn being a team that hasn’t shown yet that it can close tight games. That plays out again. After Auburn is 15 minutes away from putting Alabama firmly on the Playoff bubble, a 4th quarter explosion from Ryan Williams is the difference. He scores a pair of long touchdowns in a 200-yard game to all but lock in a Playoff berth for Alabama.
2025 projection: 6-6 (2-6), 13th in SEC
The Tigers finish with 1 win more than they had in 2024. Is it enough for Freeze to keep his job?
12-team Playoff berth? No
The better question is about Freeze’s future on The Plains. He’s not surviving 6-6 with a 2-6 mark in SEC play. He can endure all the bad luck in the world and still not earn a Year 4 if that’s how 2025 plays out.
In my projection, the hay is in the barn by the time Auburn falls to an 0-4 start to SEC play. The dagger is sent by Pavia and Co. It’s the byproduct of a coach who not only can’t troubleshoot a turnover-prone quarterback, but he also can’t make the right decisions to close out games. Hence, why Auburn is 2-6 in 1-score games since Freeze’s arrival. Whether that’s forgetting that a running back exists or attempting baffling field goals, it’s no secret that I’ve lost faith in Freeze to turn around a program.
For the sake of an Auburn fanbase that would prefer not to have its 4th different head coach in the 2020s, I hope I’m wrong and that the bets on the Tigers to hit the over on 7.5 wins will indeed be smart money.
But for now, I’m doubting a return to late-season relevance on The Plains.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
