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Good, bad or otherwise, Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason had a plan for prized quarterback recruit Kyle Shurmur last season. He wanted Shurmur’s freshman season to be a year of learning, of finding his way around an SEC football program, a year of gaining wisdom and strength.
In other words, they had put the red shirt on him for a reason. They didn’t want Shurmur to play; they wanted to redshirt him and patiently get acclimated to life in the the SEC.
But that didn’t happen. When the Vandy offense was struggling at epic levels and incumbent starter Johnny McCrary was throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, Mason and offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig turned to Shurmur and peeled off his redshirt. He played in five games, winning one against Kentucky.
And he struggled just as everyone thought he would. He has a ton of talent, but he wasn’t ready. Everyone knew it, and Shurmur proved it. There are two ways to look at the five-game experiment. One is that Vandy lost a year of Shurmur in 2019. Two, and most important at least for now, is that the experience will greatly benefit Shurmur and the Vandy passing game in 2016.
It’s that second thought that matters right now.
The Vandy passing game was terrible last year, basically the worst in the SEC outside of Missouri. The numbers don’t lie.
Passing yards per game (SEC rank): 171.8. (13th)
TDs: 11 (tied for 11th)
INTs: 16 (tied for most)
It’s an area that requires massive improvement in 2016. The good news? Everyone around the Vandy program is confident they will.
QB PLAY
Shurmur was 44 of 103 passing, a terrible 42.7 percent completion rate. In his five games he passed for just 503 yards. The one thing was that he had five TD passes and only three interceptions. That was a big improvement from McCrary, who threw for 1,553 yards, but had 12 interceptions to just six TD passes.
Shurmur is the future and McCrary saw the writing on the wall and transferred to FCS Mercer in Macon, Ga. Shurmur is now the man, although he still officially has to earn his starting role in the fall. That’s the talk at least, but it will be a shock if Shurmur isn’t under center for the opener against South Carolina on Sept. 1.
There is plenty of optimism around Nashville that Shurmur has benefitted greatly from his trial run last year. He looked good in the spring.
In the spring game, he was 7-of-9 passing for 96 yards. His two incompletions were both drops, including one on third down up the middle of the field. Accuracy, a huge issue last fall, didn’t seem to be a problem in the spring. In fact, none of the Vandy QBs threw a pick in the spring game, which was different from 2015, when QBs threw five.
It’s Shurmur’s job, but Shawn Stankavage, Wade Freebeck and Deuce Wallace will get a look.
Receivers/tight ends/running backs
One thing that coaches who really know the game hate most when watching football with the average fan is that fan’s lack of knowledge about how a passing game works. Last year, watching Vandy’s passing game could bring blood to the eyes, but the blame couldn’t be placed solely on the quarterbacks.
Quite simply, the Commodores just didn’t have enough weapons on the outside. There were many pass plays where there was simply no one open, and no one to throw to.
That could change this year.
C.J. Duncan is back and healthy after a season-ending leg injury in 2015 helped derail Vandy’s season. Duncan, who started nine games as a freshman in 2014, was expected to be a star, but never got the chance. Duncan looked 100 percent all spring and even had a 32-yard catch-and-run on a pass from Shurmur in the spring game. He finished the day with two catches for 50 yards and looks ready to have a big fall.
Mason is thrilled to have Duncan and Trent Sherfield on the field together. Sherfield (pictured below) had a breakout season in 2015, leading the team in catches (51), receiving yards (659) and receiving touchdowns (3) after catching just one pass as a freshman.
He has shown flashes of being the true playmaker this offense desperately needs, like when he hauled in 16 passes for 240 yards in a win against Austin Peay. There are others who can help as well, including Caleb Scott and Latevius Rayford.
Make no mistake, Vandy will be a running team first. Ralph Webb (pictured below) is back and poised to become the school’s all-time leading rusher.
He will get his touches, both on the ground and in the air as he continues to improve as a pass catcher. He caught 24 balls last season — tied for third — and only Sherfield had more touchdown catches than Webb, who had two.
And they’re solid at tight end with DeAndre Woods, who’s also coming back from injury and seems primed for a big 2016.
Play-calling
In two years under Mason, the Commodores offense has finished at the bottom in the SEC in passing yardage in 2014 and 2015, averaging a measly 175.5 yards per game through the air. When you stretch that out to a comparison of all 128 FBS teams, the Commodores checked in at 107th and 112th, respectively.
McCrary no doubt played a big part of those struggles. Now that he’s gone, it doesn’t serve much purpose in diving into play-calling tendencies from 2015.
It’s offensive coordinator Ludwig’s charge to make everybody and every thing better in 2016. The jury is still out on Ludwig, of course, especially considering those national rankings. But with better quarterback play and more weapons at receiver, the Commodores have reason to be excited about 2016. They certainly left the spring feeling that way.
“I liked what I saw from our offense,” Mason told reporters after the spring game, where the offense outperformed Vandy’s stout defense. “I thought our quarterbacks managed the game, they threw the ball well and hit their targets. And we were able to sustain a running game. It was just good football. I liked what I saw.”
That’s the goal for the fall, that Ludwig can dial the right combinations of Webb running the ball and Shurmur taking the passing game to the next level.
One stat that must improve
In the five games that Shurmur played in last year, he never once completed better than 50 percent of his passes. That’s far from acceptable at any level of football and it certainly makes it hard to win in the SEC.
A few of those games were real stinkers. He was just 3 of 11 for 20 yards against Houston and 3 of 12 for 19 yards against Texas A&M. We’ve covered it clearly enough so far that Shurmur wasn’t ready to play last year, but without question raising that completion percentage will be a key component to a better performance in 2016.
Greatest concern
What’s the big worry? That all the good things we saw all spring were just a mirage. Is Shurmur really ready to step in and throw the ball all over the yard when he needs to? Can the receivers stay healthy and be viable weapons? There is reason for optimism that things will be better in 2016, but the simple fact is this: They have to prove it. And it starts with Day 1 and that Thursday night opener with South Carolina.
Defensive guru Will Muschamp will want to make a statement in his first game as the head coach at South Carolina and he’s going to throw the kitchen sink at Shurmur. Is he ready to respond?
Better or worse in 2016?
The passing game ranked near the bottom of college football for two years in a row, so there is nowhere to go but up. Vandy’s passing game will be better in 2016, and probably by a wide margin.
Expect Shurmur, a coach’s son, to continue to grow up quickly. With a running game to rely on, there will be opportunity with some play-action passing. It’s up to Shurmur and company to deliver, and the feeling is they will.
Tom Brew is an award-winning journalist and author who is covering SEC football for Saturday Down South.
