Betting Stuff: Back these 2 SEC teams to go unbeaten and winless in league play
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As we barrel toward the beginning of another college football regular season, time is running out to get your picks, predictions, and prognostications in.
As such, sportsbooks like BetMGM are expanding their college football odds. Right now, fans can bet on SEC teams that will go unbeaten in conference play and SEC teams that will go winless in conference play. On the former front, Alabama stands out as a bet with enough juice to consider it. On the latter, Kentucky has plus odds to go winless in league play after a 1-7 season a year ago.
Both are worth considering ahead of the start of the new season, but a disclaimer is needed first.
In the last 14 seasons, 3 SEC teams have successfully navigated a league schedule unscathed. LSU has done it twice (2011, 2019). Georgia has done it 3 times (2021-23). Alabama has done it 4 times (2016, 2018, 2020, 2023). LSU and Georgia both play Alabama in the coming season.
No one made it through the first year of the expanded SEC without taking at least 1 defeat. And, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+, every single SEC team has a schedule that ranks among the 25 toughest in the FBS this fall. Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Texas all have schedules that rank 13th or higher.
I didn’t see a team going unbeaten last year, and I have already gone on the record stating I don’t think a team will go unbeaten this year.
But I do think Alabama will end the regular season as the best team in the SEC. I predicted 1 conference loss for the Crimson Tide in the piece linked above, so, naturally, the Tide’s price at BetMGM was where my glance fixated first.
The book has Alabama priced at +750 to go unbeaten in league play. Two things to consider: first, that number implies an 11.8% probability, and second, SP+ gives the Crimson Tide a 30% chance to reach 11 wins. The latter is the best of any SEC team.
Alabama doesn’t have a top-10 strength of schedule, according to SP+, but it will play 5 of the other 8 SEC teams that posted a winning record in league play last season.
Texas will play just 2. Conversely, the Longhorns will face 5 of 6 teams that finished with 5 or more league losses last season. The Longhorns are the favorite at BetMGM for this specific prop, priced at +400. Road games at Florida and Georgia are worrisome enough to avoid the Longhorns here.
Steve Sarkisian got 2 cracks at Georgia last season — one of them at home — and couldn’t figure out the Bulldogs. The Longhorns also host Texas A&M at the end of the year in a game that could be tricky.
Alabama has done this before. While you might point to Nick Saban and say his past has no bearing on Alabama’s future, I’d counter by pointing out that Kalen DeBoer has already produced an unbeaten regular-season in his still-young FBS head coaching career.
DeBoer plus Ryan Grubb plus a strong fit at quarterback produced a 14-1 season and a national runner-up finish in 2023 at Washington.
His 2025 Alabama team has more talent, specifically on the defensive side of the football. We have to question whether he has the quarterback to make a national championship run, but I’d also remind folks that Michael Penix Jr. was a massive question mark when DeBoer plucked him from the portal to lead his UW turnaround a few years ago.
If DeBoer and Grubb like the fit, who are we to question? That Alabama sat idle in the transfer quarterback market this offseason says plenty.
Alabama has difficult conference road games, but this kind of a move shouldn’t be made based on “path of least resistance.” Every good team in the SEC is going to play another good team. In most instances, all the best play several.
Who’s the best team in the SEC? I think it’s Alabama. And I like Alabama with a 12% chance.
On the other end, I’m concerned Kentucky might be the worst team in the SEC this fall.
Ole Miss is the only team in the league that returns fewer starts than Kentucky, and the Rebels signed a top-20 high school class with a top-5 transfer class. Kentucky’s high school class ranked 29th and the transfer haul ranked 10th.
Coach Mark Stoops is attempting to rebound by reloading. Kentucky brought in 26 transfers but kept both coordinators around after last year’s debacle. The defense has usually propped up a middling offense under Stoops, but the bottom fell out last fall because the offense completely fell apart.
Kentucky finished 120th out of 134 FBS teams in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. In Connelly’s SP+ ratings, the Kentucky offense ranked 89th nationally.
This fall, the skill positions are completely new. The quarterback spot — a weakness throughout Stoops’ tenure — will be manned by former Incarnate Word transfer Zach Calzada.
The 6-4 senior spent 2 seasons at UIW, where he threw for 6,342 yards and 54 touchdowns with 18 picks. He completed 66% of his throws and helped the Cardinals to an 11-3 finish and an FCS Playoff quarterfinal appearance.
Before UIW, Calzada had unsuccessful stints at Texas A&M and Auburn. Stoops is hoping that Calzada’s improvement scales.
I think a healthy bit of skepticism is reasonable. Kentucky will play 5 of its league games against teams that ranked among the top 20 pass defenses last season by EPA per dropback allowed. Additionally, 6 of Kentucky’s 12 regular-season games this fall will be against teams that were inside the top 50 last season in TakeOpps percentage.
In his 3 seasons as a significant contributor (2 at UIW, 2021 at Texas A&M), Calzada had 43 turnover-worthy plays. He has a career 3.3% TWP rate, according to PFF. He has thrown interceptions at a much lower rate over the course of his career — 1 every 42 passes — but he’ll be facing aggressive defenses this fall that make it a point to get their hands on the ball. Calzada will face Toledo and Ole Miss right off the bat — a pair of defenses that could really damage his confidence.
Road games are always going to be a challenge in the SEC, but Kentucky’s home slate is really the one to be concerned about. Home conference games are against Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee, and Florida. All 4 are top-15 teams in SP+ entering the year.
Kentucky is priced at +230 to go winless in league play this fall. That carries a 30.3% implied probability. SP+ projects only 1.9 conference victories for the Wildcats. The 2 lower-rated SEC teams — Vanderbilt and Mississippi State — both have proven power conference producers at quarterback. We don’t know if Kentucky has that, and we don’t know if Kentucky has the pieces around the quarterback spot to even make it matter.
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Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
