Betting Stuff: Back this team in the SEC title race after Week 2
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No schedule in college football is created equal, and that’s particularly true in the opening weeks of the season. It’s pretty pointless to compare this team to that team because this team played 2 FBS opponents, while that team played an FCS squad and a Group of 5 squad.
The result: We’re collectively slow to accept what our eyes see, and instead fall back on preseason expectations.
Look no further than this week’s AP Poll. South Carolina is No. 11. Vanderbilt appeared at No. 25 on 1 ballot. They have both played an FCS opponent at home. They have both played Virginia Tech. Vandy played the Hokies on the road, South Carolina at a neutral site. Vandy has looked better by a wide margin.
But South Carolina was believed to be one of the best teams in the SEC, and most folks aren’t ready to move off that notion after 2 games. The Gamecocks are getting the benefit of the doubt.
That’s fine.
Here’s what my eyes see through the first 2 weeks of the season: The SEC is wide open. And the team that has looked the most impressive through the first 2 weeks of the season is currently priced at +4500 (DraftKings) to win the conference.
Throw a unit behind Mizzou to win the SEC this season.
It’s a long shot, but that might just be because our preseason bias is still coloring the picture.
The Tigers moved up 3 spots this week in Bill Connelly’s SP+, to No. 13. After opening the season with a 61-6 win over Central Arkansas at home, Mizzou won the first Border War in over a decade by beating Kansas 42-31. The Tigers outscored the Jayhawks 36-10 over the final 3 quarters to pull off the victory.
“This is the Missouri that I’ve always dreamed of and believed in,” head coach Eli Drinkwitz said after the win.
Since the start of the 2023 season, only 3 FBS programs have a better winning percentage than Mizzou — Oregon, Ohio State, and Georgia. The Tigers have been more consistent than programs like Texas, Penn State, Michigan, and Notre Dame.
Since the start of the 2023 season, only 1 FBS program has been better against the spread than Mizzou — Notre Dame. The Tigers are 20-8 (.714) against Vegas. No other FBS team has a cover percentage of .660.
According to Game on Paper, Mizzou has the 13th-best net EPA per play of any team in the country. Only 2 SEC teams (Arkansas and Vanderbilt) have been better against their opening schedules. Mizzou ranks ninth in offensive EPA per play.
The offseason transfer additions to the backfield are a huge reason why. Quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy have been everything Mizzou asked for and more.
Pribula has 617 yards passing, 71 yards rushing, and 7 total touchdowns without an interception. He ranks fourth among FBS quarterbacks in total EPA. He ranks fourth among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (79.1%). No FBS quarterback with at least 10 dropbacks has a better passing grade when throwing from a clean pocket than Pribula, according to PFF. No FBS quarterback has a better passing grade when blitzed than Pribula.
The potential was obvious when he came over from Penn State. But in 2 seasons with the Nittany Lions, Pribula had only thrown 56 passes. There wasn’t enough data of him in live situations to really know what he would be as a starting quarterback. Prognosticators could guess, but that’s all preseason takes were — guesses.
Pribula had a moment in his first game where he faked a handoff, spun around, and had a defender immediately in his face. He immediately dumped an accurate pass to his outlet and turned what should have been a loss into a positive gain. No panic, no attempt at improv, just quick-blinking and accurate passing. It was a modest play on a day stuffed with bigger highlights, but it showcased something important: comfort.
In Week 2 against Kansas, Pribula completed 30 of his 39 passes for 334 yards and 3 scores. He fumbled on Mizzou’s second drive of the game and was sacked for a 3-yard loss on the next possession, but he responded from then on in a major way.
After the Tigers fell down 21-6, Pribula hit completions of 20 and 15 yards on third down and then converted a fourth-and-2 from the 3 to score a touchdown and bring the Tigers back within 8 points. He threw a touchdown on third-and-goal from the 11 to give Mizzou a 28-24 lead at the end of the third quarter, and then he threw a 27-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 to give Mizzou the lead again in the fourth quarter.
According to PFF, Pribula completed 9 of his 10 passes for 99 yards and a score when Kansas blitzed him. He completed 78% of his passes for 290 yards when operating from a clean pocket. His tape looks pretty good right now — an accurate quarterback who knows where to go with the ball, makes decisions quickly, and hurts defenses with his legs when necessary.
Saturday’s game against Kansas was the first major test of the season for the young quarterback, and he aced it.
As for Hardy, the Louisiana-Monroe transfer has 212 yards and 2 scores on 35 carries so far. He had 100 in the opener and then 112 against KU. A slippery ball carrier a year ago, Hardy has been just as difficult to bring down through the first 2 weeks of the 2025 season, with 15 missed tackles already forced.
And it looks like Mizzou has a capable No. 2 in the backfield to keep Hardy fresh throughout the season; Jamal Roberts ran for 143 yards on 13 carries against the Jayhawks. Even if you remove the 63-yard touchdown Roberts had that iced the game in the fourth, he still averaged 6.7 yards a carry in the game.
The questions coming into the season were on the offensive side of the football. If Mizzou is going to get steady play like this from its backfield, the Tigers are dangerous.
And while you might question how this all will look once SEC play begins for the Tigers, there’s a caveat that needs to be made. According to Kelley Ford’s ratings, Mizzou’s remaining strength of schedule ranks 14th among the 16 SEC teams.
The Tigers get South Carolina, Alabama, and Texas A&M at home. South Carolina has looked like a shell on offense to open the season. Alabama has looked like a mess on the road under coach Kalen DeBoer. Texas A&M closed out the 2024 season with defensive problems and it has opened the 2025 season with questionable defensive play.
Dare I say the toughest remaining games might be Auburn and Oklahoma on the road?
At this juncture, backing Mizzou is as much commentary on the rest of the SEC’s contending class as it is the Tigers.
Let’s run through them:
- Georgia (+280): 28 points against Austin Peay in Week 2… averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt
- Texas (+300): 54.2% of the Longhorns’ offensive possessions have ended with a 3-and-out, a turnover, or a turnover on downs… quarterback Arch Manning ranks 96th among qualified FBS quarterbacks in total EPA
- LSU (+550): 84th in offensive EPA per play… 103rd in offensive yards per play
- Alabama (+650): 1-5 in last 6 games played away from home under DeBoer
- Texas A&M (+1400): 75th in defensive EPA per play… 57th in defensive yards per play
- Ole Miss (+1500): 111th in rushing yards allowed per carry… 118th in turnover margin
- Tennessee (+1600): 87th in defensive EPA per play… starting cornerbacks both injured
- Florida (+2500): just lost to South Florida… fan base is back to hating its head coach
- South Carolina (+4000): 92nd in offensive yards per play… averaged a historically-damning 4.5 yards per play against an FCS team
The point here is not that Mizzou is a perfectly complete team and everyone else is flawed, rather that the first 2 weeks of the season have shown us that there isn’t a clear-cut alpha in this conference right now. There isn’t an elite team. Many thought it was Texas prior to the start of the season, but when was the last time Texas beat another elite team? Many thought it was LSU after Week 1, but the shine of the Clemson win quickly rusted with how both sets of Tigers looked in Week 2.
One could make the argument that there are realistically 10 SEC teams (at least) that, right now, should feel like they can make the title game in Atlanta at the end of the regular season.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ model gave Mizzou a 3.5% chance to win the conference title before the season started. Mizzou has been upgraded by 4.6 points in SP+ after 2 games. Yet the implied probability attached to the Tigers’ price at DraftKings is lower now than SP+ was in the preseason.
Given the odds and the schedule Mizzou has in front of it, I don’t think there’s a better value play anywhere on the board right now in the SEC.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
