Betting Stuff: Best bets for the 2025 College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
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The higher-seeded team won every game in the first round of last year’s College Football Playoff. Then, the lower-seeded team won every game of the quarterfinal round. That led to a format change in the offseason and a bye structure that rewarded team strength over conference championships.
Will this year’s quarterfinal round be different? The first round certainly was. Two lower-seeded teams won road games in the opening round. Now, in the quarters, 1 of the 4 games has the higher seed installed as an underdog.
I’m expecting favorites to roll in this round. Here are your best bets for the quarters.
The best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 2-1
2025 season: 21-28-1
2024 season: 33-37
CFP Quarterfinals schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every postseason game below.
Oregon -3.5 vs. Texas Tech (+117 via DraftKings)
I project Oregon by 4 in this game against the Red Raiders, so I’m playing an alt spread here. I loved what I saw from the Ducks — specifically quarterback Dante Moore — in the first half against James Madison, and that performance will translate well over to this week. Tech has seen one quarterback all season who is comparable to Moore in terms of his ability to attack a defense through the air — Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt. While you take the 26-22 loss with a grain of salt because Tech was playing without its own starting quarterback, the 26 points Arizona State scored that day marked a season-high against the Tech defense, and so did the 319 yards Leavitt threw for. Tech’s defense hasn’t been tested by elite quarterbacks much at all this season, and while it does have the extra prep time to get ready for Moore, there’s absolutely value in Moore getting on the field last weekend, finding a rhythm, and getting his top receivers back healthy. Evan Stewart appears close to a return. Both Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. got on the field against JMU, and neither had to do much heavy lifting. Oregon scored 51 points and Moore threw for 313 yards despite his top 3 options seeing only 2 targets all game. Tech will need to be wary of Oregon’s run game after multiple Ducks ripped through James Madison’s defense, but the more pressing issue is how Tech will match up against the first elite passing attack it has seen all year.
Indiana -6.5 vs. Alabama (-115 via BetMGM)
The spread here has been hovering around 7 since it opened. If it closes at 7 or higher, it’ll mark only the third time in the last 19 seasons that Alabama has been an underdog of a touchdown or greater. Ohio State was a 7.5-point favorite in a Playoff semifinal game during the 2014 season, and Florida was a 10-point favorite in the 2008 SEC title game. Both times, Alabama lost by at least a touchdown. While Indiana’s blood doesn’t match the blueish hue of those 2 programs, there’s no reason to doubt the Hoosiers. They won by 10 in Autzen during the regular season. They beat Ohio State on a neutral field to win a conference title. They’ve passed every other test with flying colors. And they’re the antithesis of Alabama — balanced. I’m not buying the Tide after a win over Oklahoma in the opening round of the CFP. Although I picked OU to win the game outright, I acknowledged heading in that Oklahoma was just as flawed as Alabama; I just trusted its strengths more. Then, Oklahoma did everything humanly possible to lose the game. All of Alabama’s question marks still remain, and Indiana doesn’t beat itself. Sell the Tide.
Georgia RB Nate Frazier over 66.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM)
Another Playoff game, another rematch for Ole Miss. The first-round game against Tulane played out similarly to the regular-season meeting between the 2 sides. If this redux with Georgia follows the same script as the first game, Gunner Stockton will shine. Expect Pete Golding to have some points of order for his defense this week about defending the pass better; Stockton had his best game of the season in the first meeting, throwing for 289 yards and 4 scores while completing 84% of his passes. Why was Stockton so successful? Because Ole Miss wasn’t winning against the run. Georgia had a 60% run rate in the game and a success rate of 60% on those rushing plays, per Game on Paper. Georgia ran on early downs and had success doing so. Three different players had at least 59 rushing yards, and that attack was led by Nate Frazier’s 17 carries for 72 yards. Ole Miss doesn’t stop runs in the backfield, and it doesn’t get great knockback on the line of scrimmage. Maybe the overall game script is different from the first meeting, but Georgia should have the same kind of rushing success.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
