The college basketball regular season has moved into its final month. In the SEC, this final month will be incredibly influential on the NCAA Tournament. According to Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket projection for ESPN, 13 teams from the SEC are currently in the field and a 14th (Arkansas) is right on the edge of the bracket. The SEC could grab 3 or even all 4 of the top seeds, depending on how things shake out down the stretch.
Week 15’s midweek slate of games has some important games. Florida will look to keep momentum going on the road against a ranked Mississippi State team on Tuesday night. And Tennessee battles Kentucky at Rupp Arena. Once again, the biggest games in college basketball are in the Southeastern Conference.
Below are the 3 bets I’m making on the slate.
2024-25 record: 7-8
Kentucky-Tennessee under 148.5 (-110 via Caesars)
The first meeting between these 2 teams was a stunner. Against a Tennessee team that was suffocating opposing offenses at home, Kentucky came in and dropped 78 points on the Vols in a 5-point victory. Since, Tennessee has won 3 straight while holding Florida to 44 points and Oklahoma to 52 points. More than anything, the Vols have rediscovered a groove on offense — the side of the floor that was their undoing in the first meeting with Kentucky. UT shot the lights out against the Sooners in the first half on the road and outscored a fantastic Mizzou offense at home. Rick Barnes’ group has rebounded nicely from 3 losses in 4 games to close out the month of January. It might be foolish to go back to the well so quickly after getting burned, but I think Tennessee, with a renewed sense of shooting confidence, can really make Kentucky work for it. The Wildcats want to push the tempo; this is a battle of starkly contrasting styles. In the first meeting, Tennessee took forty-five shots from beyond the 3-point line and made just 11 of them. That let the Wildcats run off long misses. In the 3 games since, Tennessee has taken a combined 58 triples and made 43% of them. If Tennessee can avoid another evening where it incessantly fires away from beyond the arc and forces Kentucky to work against set defenses, I like the Vols to control the flow of the game. We’ve seen this UT team go on the road before (at Auburn) and dictate terms to the hosts.
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Alabama money line at Texas (-190 via BetMGM)
This is a natural trap game for the second-ranked Crimson Tide. A Texas team that has lost 7 of 11 since conference play began is all that stands between Alabama and a historic showdown with Auburn over the weekend. It’s tough to win on the road in the SEC and maybe Alabama gets caught looking ahead. I just don’t see it, though. Not against this Texas squad. The Longhorns are 3-9 against KenPom top-50 teams so far this season while the Crimson Tide are 11-3. Nate Oats’ squad has played in big games and won big games. An extremely weak nonconference schedule has aided the Longhorns’ numbers this season. In league play, Texas ranks 11th in the SEC in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. Alabama has one of the SEC’s best defenses when it comes to shot efficiency (second in eFG%) and doesn’t rely on turnovers to fuel the offense. Texas hasn’t scored more than 78 points against a top-50 team since Jan. 7 and that won’t be enough to get it done against Alabama. It would not surprise me if Alabama wins here by more than the current 4.5-point spread, but because of what sits ahead and because of the volatility the Tide’s style of play invites, I’m leaning toward a moneyline bet here for some extra security.
Texas A&M-Georgia under 139.5 (-112 via DraftKings)
This has rock fight written all over it. Both of these teams currently sit outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Both lean on their defenses (top 25 in adjusted efficiency) and shoot poorly from beyond the arc. Texas A&M is an extremely poor shooting outfit overall — 280th in effective field goal percentage, 296th in 3-point shooting, 245th in 2-point shooting — but has counteracted that all year thanks to its offensive rebounding. The Aggies lead the country in offensive rebounding rate (42.5%). Georgia, one of the tallest teams in college basketball, is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and secures 53.9% of all total rebounds. Points will be at a major premium.
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Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
