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The Saturday slate features one of the best headliners we’ll see all season, but the massive showdown between No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Alabama won’t be the only fascinating matchup on the SEC card. A ranked Mizzou team goes on the road to face a dangerous Georgia team. Vanderbilt and Tennessee battle in Knoxville. Ole Miss hosts Mississippi State in a ranked-on-ranked battle. Kentucky is an underdog on the road against an unranked Texas team.
Yes, Alabama and Auburn will draw the attention (and rightfully so), but we’re in for another wonderful day of college basketball action all throughout the conference. Below are the 3 bets I’m making on the weekend slate.
2024-25 record: 10-8
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Kentucky money line at Texas (+140 via Caesars)
The Longhorns were highlighted as a potential roadblock for Alabama in the middle of the week and instead got buried by one of the nation’s best offenses. The Crimson Tide scored 103 points in a 23-point rout thanks to outstanding team shooting. Alabama was a max-efficiency rim-and-3 team, shooting 62% from the field while knocking down 17 of its 29 3-pointers. That game was the latest data point to suggest the market still hasn’t properly adjusted for Texas. Since the start of conference play, per KenPom, Texas is 13th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, 11th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 12th in 3-point defense. During the 3-game losing streak, Texas has allowed its opponents to make 33 combined triples at a 45.2% rate. All 3 teams (Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama) shot better than their season averages from 3 against UT. Now, Texas hosts a Kentucky team that has been the SEC’s best 3-point shooting team in conference play. The Wildcats have made 42.1% of their 3s in league play, per KenPom. The offense is No. 3 nationally in adjusted efficiency and No. 11 in effective field goal rate. Even without Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson, Kentucky has enough firepower to beat these Longhorns.
Texas A&M-Arkansas total under 141 points (-110 via bet365)
Arkansas has found some traction of late, winning 4 of its last 6 and clearing the projected point total in 8 of its last 10 games. The Razorbacks beat Kentucky at Rupp thanks to an 89-point performance a few weeks ago and put 81 on Alabama last Saturday. Texas A&M presents a different challenge. Unders have cashed in 7 of the Aggies’ last 8 games and in 8 of their 11 league games overall. A&M’s poor first-shot offense has been well-documented in this space; it has a top-50 offense purely because of its nation-leading offensive rebounding rate. The Aggies grind opponents to a crawl at the other end, forcing them to use all the shot clock and take long jump shots. This game will be played in the 60s.
Alabama-Auburn total over 172.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Tennessee was able to force Auburn to play its own kind of game and I think Alabama can do the same at home. The environment should be absolutely electric inside Coleman Coliseum Saturday afternoon for what will be the first matchup between AP No. 1 and No. 2 teams in SEC history. Alabama, one of the fastest teams in basketball, is going to want to run on the Tigers. If the game slows down, it favors the visitors. Since the lineup change that saw Chris Youngblood replace Labaron Philon in the starting 5, Alabama has been even more deadly with the basketball. In the win over Texas, the Crimson Tide scored 1.43 points per possession. I think Alabama actually matches up fine with Auburn. The Tide don’t need to force turnovers to run — they have one of the lowest steal rates in the country — and that’s an area where Auburn would otherwise have an advantage. Auburn has been exceptional at limiting the 3-ball this season — its 30.4% clip allowed is 30th nationally — but very few teams pepper 3-point defenses quite like the Tide. If this becomes a game where both coaches find it hard to play their bigs for extended stretches of time — Clifford Omoruyi for Alabama, Dylan Cardwell for Auburn — things will be wide-open for both offenses. I’m expecting a firework-driven, free-flowing game between what are the 2 most efficient offenses in basketball, per KenPom.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
